Latest news both economic data from USA and china starting stronger than expected. Big benefict to our market. Trade war also progressing well. Wait and see.
Why should investors return in November? There are four core reason to this.
Firstly, we have the traditional window-dressing activities, which tends to see some sort of buying interest among fundamentally beaten down stocks. This happens among stocks which are widely held by institutional shareholders and are significantly lower in value than the start of the year and hence some sort of buying momentum could help fund managers to make their year-to-date performance “much better” and reflect the index’s performance.
Second, we are in the midst of the Q3 reporting season and by the end of November, all companies, especially with the December year-end, would report their bottom line numbers in terms of their performance. While Q3 earnings could dictate market’s reaction, i.e. if the reported profits are either above or below estimate, what typically happens at the end of the Q3 period is the change in broking firm’s valuation matrix.
Analysts would roll-over their fair values of the stocks under their coverage based on the next year’s earnings expectations, i.e. next year’s full year earnings forecast will now come into play instead of the 2019 performance. This typically lifts market’s perception on value as companies that are valued based on one-year forward earnings are likely to be more attractive than current year’s earnings, on the assumption that growth trajectory is still intact or improving. Third, as we usher in the year 2020, the January effect will come into the picture as investors will start to nimble and re-adjust their portfolio for next year’s market’s theme as well as re-positioning on stocks where some fund managers could have locked-in their gains based on this year’s individual stock’s performance.
Fourth, although this is not a typical strategy but markets tend to have a positive momentum going into the Lunar New Year, which is celebrated as early as Jan 25 next year, just one month after Christmas, and not more than three weeks into the trading cycle of the Gregorian New Year.
Hence, with four positive catalysts helping sentiment, perhaps it’s an opportune time to look at the potential beneficiaries of this momentum.
As far as 2019 is concerned, the KLCI is not a benchmark that had performed well but the overall market sentiment was not too bad. We had very strong winners in 2019 among the oil and gas companies, driven by sentiment and contract awards.
Thank you for your reply Mabel. As a newbie in this, I’m learning a lot from you. I wanted to be a long term investors , instead of chasing and running around in circle. You give me confidence to trust this stock. Thank you .
Ling Kee Man, what type of bad news, could you elaborate further? With good quarter result, believe the price will surge at least 15 - 20 % within a week.
Lol say bad news but never elaborate. What a troll. Anyways, wait for QR only decide. Might go either way, although I’ll be holding this stock for long term (or until it rises to a point it’s not sustainable). Average buy price at 18.5 cents. Anything below 20cents I’ll gladly pick up.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Ling Kee man
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Posted by Ling Kee man > 2019-11-01 17:34 | Report Abuse
Up one sen,drop again...ggwp