Am amazed that with 1 Sabah market alone already such market cap, I wonder if expand to other states or countries will significantly increase revenue and profit in the longer run?
IPO push aside, this seems to be a great stock to hold with its peers Spritzer!
Most stock analysts have studied this lesser-known regional niche consumer player from a wrong perspective, comparing it to well-known brands like Spritzer is like comparing local hero 99Smart to global giant 7-11 so just take the bullish forecast (and the unrealistic target price) with a pinch of salt.
To be fair, those analysts should compare the price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios to similar consumer companies in comparable geographical zones. For example, Sabah-based KTC (0180) has a PE ratio of 8.3x and a PB ratio of 0.6x. Given that Sabah is a relatively small market with weak purchasing power, it offers limited growth opportunities.
A stock analyst has assigned a fair value of 74 sen per share, which is 14% above its IPO price of 65 sen, based on a FY2025 PE of 11x. This implies an forward EPS of approximately 0.06727 sen. When comparing this information with KTC, which has a PE of 8.3x, the fair value of LW Sabah should be around 0.55 sen.
Additionally, take attention that KTC is trading below its NTA, indicating that the market sentiment for Sabah-based companies is rather weak. For those who still not convinced by my crystal ball analysis, just check the reported result of Olympia (3018) which do number forecasting business in Sabah but don't think this company ever made profit even though BJToto and Magnum made ton of profits at national level so the consumer market in Sabah is really hard to understand.
The sales of KTC is about 5x the size of LWSabah, but KTC's PBT margin only 3.29% and the sales of Karex is about 3.5x the size of LWSabah, but Karex's PBT margin only 2.8% so using these data as the basis, the PBT margin of LWSabah at 22% may not be sustainable as PBT margin of 22% only global high tech stocks like Microsoft or Nvida can do that.
The math just don't add up so those retired uncle please think twice before you takeout all your EPF saving and all-in this company unless you really understand Sabah's erratic consumer market and also LWSabah's business model and how they can achieve such a marvelous PBT margin.
Suggest don't be bothered by daily swings of the stock. Buy based on conviction of the future business, growth and earnings.
A stable business with predictable income stream. Huge market yet to be untapped with Sarawak and Brunei. Lots of growth opportunities. Plus, valuation is so attractive.
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DreamKaiser
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Posted by DreamKaiser > 1 month ago | Report Abuse
Walao. Another good one for the Kaiser to kick off. Yay!!!🙌