Research houses like UMW Oil & Gas Corp Bhd’s (UMWOG) initial public offering (IPO) with ‘Buy’ recommendations in their research reports, giving target prices ranging from RM3.10 to RM3.36, a premium over its retail price of RM2.80 per share.
The consensus is that the homegrown domestic pure rig player stands to benefit from Petroleum Nasional Bhd (Petronas) localisation policy where locally owned rigs will replace foreign rigs when drilling contracts expire.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIBB) said as of September 2013, 16 jack-up rigs are operating in Malaysia but only two are locally owned by UMW-OG.
Fourteen foreign jack-up rig contracts are expected to expire within one to two years with an early call for tender expected by end of 2013.
“Domestically, the Economic Transformation Programme driven RM300 billion capital expenditure to enhance exploration, enhanced oil recovery and marginal fields require massive level of drilling activities which the financial market has underestimated.
“Based on industry channel checks, there will be 38 rigs operating in Malaysia by end 2013 versus 22 in 2012,” said HLIBB which has the highest recommended target pr ice of RM3.36.
All the other research houses cited the RM300 billion capital expenditure by Petronas as a plus to UMW-OG’s future as well as liking the fact that UMW-OG is spending more than half of its RM1.7 billion proceeds to buy rigs to add to its young fleet.
“Industry players indicated that oil majors prefer to spend more to charter newer rigs due to their speed, efficiency and ability to deal with more complex high pressure deeper wells,” said HLIBB.
HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd gives a target price of RM3.20 with a 14% return upside based on the growth potential of UMW-OG that has no direct comparable peer in Malaysia.
JF Apex Securities Bhd gives a target price of RM3.15, an upside of 12.5% based on UMW-OG financial year 2014 (FY14) earning per share (EPS) forecast of 13 sen and 24.3 times average forward price earning (PE) ratio of large capitalised Malaysian oil and gas stocks.
SJ Securities Sdn Bhd which gives the lowest target price of RM3.10 said the RM2.80 IPO price has already been factored in UMW-OG’s future prospect.
“We have a fair value of RM3.10 based on an average 30 times PE pegging to our FY14 EPS of 10.34 sen. The 30 times PE is the average PE for the oil and gas stocks with market capitalisation of above RM5 billion,” said SJ Securirties.
The company is also liked by the domestic and foreign funds, garnering 21 cornerstone investors which include Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB), altogether taking up 399 million shares or 18.45% of the enlarged issued and paid up share capital of the company with the rest allocated to business entities or individuals.
“They want to buy the shares. How could we say no,” said UMW-OG president Rohaizad Darus to The Malaysian Reserve recently.
The company would be capitalised at about RM6.05 billion upon the listing of the entire 2.162 billion shares slated for Nov 1, 2013.
UMW-OG is a 55% subsidiary of Bursa-listed UMW Holdings Bhd, which is a 51% subsidiary of PNB.
hepitrade...boleh masa listing nanti tapi mungkin hg sudah naik. SANG-JERO...Ada harapan buat untung lagilah! Kemungkinan pergerakan lebih baik berbanding Westports?
Besok, bermulanya mengikut hari UMW O&G....Semua mengharap mendapat premium yg baik pd hari pertama. Jika kurang yakin, boleh jual hari listing. Bagi yg mempunyai mental dan peluru yg kuat boleh terus mengharap kenaikan yg lebih baik utk 2-3 bulan.Selamat berjuang utk UMW O&G!
hepitrade....Syukurlah kita dapat walaupun sikit.Bukan senang mau dpt saham ni.Ramai yg kecewa. Pantaulah pd 1/11/13 dan buatlah kpts yg srbaik mungkin.
Budget 2014: Oil and gas sector likely to continue vital role
THE oil and gas sector will continue to play an important role in the economy next year.
Private investment in sectors which include oil and gas is expected to increase further to RM189bil, or 17.9% of GDP.
Public investment is estimated to reach RM106bil.
In the oil and gas sector, among projects to be undertaken by Petronas include the Sabah Ammonia Urea Project (Samur) in Sipitang; the integrated oil and gas production development project in Kebabangan; the regasification plant project in Lahad Datu, Sabah; and Petronas’ Refinery and Petrochemicals Integrated Development or RAPID in Pengerang, Johor, which is the largest investment in Malaysia.
Petronas has a five-year RM300bil capital expenditure plan to reverse declining production.
The national oil company said in June that it would have to play catch-up after having spent only RM72bil, or 24%, of that amount between 2011 and January this year.
“Petronas’ five-year RM300bil capex should keep the excitement level high in a sector that is a major revenue earner,” CIMB Research said earlier this year.
An analyst concurs saying: “With the amount of ongoing oil and gas activity, there will be a continuous flow of jobs which will contribute to a robust sector.”
If u have money, Buy PETRONAS Chemical Group (PCHEM) Share starting from now and hold it until April 2014. Price in 6 month is expected around RM 8.50 - RM 10.00 .
Hepitrade....... Pantech's TA & FA are very bullish....Kenanga & RHB TP is 1.28-1.43....I suggest you read RHB & Kenanga's report for better understanding.....Also, I would recommend you to read trustme932 and Ooi Tek bee posting in Pantech's thread.....Both of them are chartist with excellent TA knowledge....
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by Lasallian > 2013-09-27 05:54 | Report Abuse
Be listed 31/10/13. Get ready the bullets! Prospectus will be out next week. Eight cornerstone investors including EFP, PNB, TH etc.