Posted by sunztzhe > 2016-01-24 13:47 | Report Abuse

Global Petroleum and Other Liquids 2014 2015 2016 2017 a Weighted by oil consumption. b Foreign currency per U.S. dollar. Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day) Non-OPEC Production 56.09 57.41 56.77 56.68 OPEC Production 37.24 38.30 39.16 40.01 OPEC Crude Oil Portion 30.77 31.65 32.16 32.72 Total World Production 93.33 95.71 95.93 96.69 OECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year) 2721 3061 3132 3131 Total OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity 2.07 1.59 1.97 1.91 OECD Consumption 45.73 46.28 46.63 46.99 Non-OECD Consumption 46.69 47.49 48.56 49.63 Total World Consumption 92.42 93.77 95.19 96.61 EXCESS PRODUCTION OVER DEMAND +0.91 +1.94 +0.74 +0.08 NOTE: GLOBAL PRODUCTION EXCEED GLOBAL DEMAND UP TO 2017 AS FORCASTED BY EIA. CURRENT PRICE REBOUND RALLY IS DUE TO MASSIVE COVERING OF SHORTS AND IS INDICATIVE OF BOTTOMING OF CRUDE OIL BUT IS IT INDICATIVE OF TREND REVERSAL? WILL CRUDE OIL SPIKE UP TO USD 100 OR WILL IT LANGUISH AT USD 25 to USD 40 FOR A LONG TIME? WHAT WAS CRUDE OIL PRICE BEFORE OPEC CURBED PRODUCTION AND SENT CRUDE OIL PRICE UP TO USD 140 ?? WHO R THE MAJOR CONSUMERS OF PETROL N DIESEL? CARS,TRUCKS,SHIPS RIGHT? WHERE R THE BIGGEST MARKETS FOR CARS? WHAT R THE FUTURE TRENDS IN THESE MARKETS? CHINA, USA, EUROPE R THE LARGEST CONSUMERS OF CARS, TRUCKS ETC...WHAT IS THE FUTURE TREND OF CARS IN THESE MARKETS? WILL HYBRIDS AND BATTERY POWERED CARS EAT MORE INTO THE MARKET SHARE OF PETROL N DIESEL CARS ???? ----------------------------------------------------- U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.7 million b/d in 2016 and 8.5 million b/d in 2017. EIA estimates that crude oil production in December fell 80,000 b/d from the November level. Natural gas working inventories were 3,643 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on January 1, which was 17% higher than during the same week last year and 15% higher than the previous five-year average (2011-15) for that week. EIA forecasts that inventories will end the winter heating season (March 31) at 2,043 Bcf, which would be 38% above the level at the same time last year. Forecast Henry Hub spot prices average $2.65/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2016 and $3.22/MMBtu in 2017, compared with an average of $2.63/MMBtu in 2015. A decline in power generation from fossil fuels in the forecast period is offset by an increase from renewable sources. The share of generation from natural gas falls from 33% in 2015 to 31% in 2017, and coal falls from 34% to 33%. For renewables, the forecast share of total generation supplied by hydropower rises from 6% in 2015 to 7% in 2017, and the forecast share for other renewables increases from 7% in 2015 to 9% in 2017. --------------------------------------------------- NOTE: POWER GENERATION FROM FOSSIL FUELS HAD DECLINED BUT POWER GENERATION FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY HAD INCREASED. IS REFINERY A BETTER BET FOR BENIGN CRUDE OIL PRICE VERSUS THE UPSTREAM SECTOR? WHY IS WARREN BUFFET BUYING INTO REFINERY?? WHAT DOES HE SEE THAT MOST DO NOT???