• Keep BUY, higher MYR1.04 TP (DCF) from MYR1.01, 27% upside. 4QFY24 (Jun) core profit swing back to the black (MYR6.4m), bringing Supermax Corp’s FY24 core losses to MYR36m. Results were lower-than-expected, as SUCB has continued to execute low-price contracts for two years at certain distribution and manufacturing plants since 1QFY23. Nonetheless, we see the light at the end of the tunnel, premised on its recovery in profitability, given that global demand for gloves are gradually picking up.

• Results overview. SUCB reported a core profit of MYR6.4m in 4QFY24 (3QFY24: -MYR15m). Core profit was primarily adjusted for MYR27m (impairment of PPE), MYR72.9m (write-down of high price inventory), and additional tax charged at certain manufacturing units for prior years (amounting to MYR30.8m). On a sequential basis, the group saw higher sales (+25.6% QoQ), attributed to the increase in sales orders as customers ramp- up their stock replenishments. Assuming a blended ASP of USD20.50/1,000 pieces, this should work out to an estimated volume sold of 1.85bn pieces during this quarter (implying a 22% QoQ growth).

• Cost outlook. We expect key raw material costs to normalise in the coming quarters on the back of lower nitrile prices (4% lower in 3Q24 as at August). Meanwhile, natural gas prices are set to be lower QoQ in 3Q24 (-8% QoQ as at August) on the back of a lingering global demand outlook.

• Operating landscape turns favourable. Industry demand-supply dynamics continue to show signs of recovery on: i) The inventory destocking cycle coming to an end, ii) improving order visibility (with recent July exports showing signs of improvement; +11.8% MoM), and iii) customers being more receptive of price hikes. With the industry excess capacity gradually phasing out, we expect the gloves industry to achieve demand-supply equilibrium by 2H24. All in, we retain our view that gloves demand will continue picking up in the coming quarters, as client inventory levels continue to deplete – this is on top of gloves inventory levels (stockpiled since 2020) approaching their expiry dates (typical shelf life for gloves: 3-5 years).

• Earnings adjustments. Post results, we raise our FY25F earnings (FY26 unchanged) by 5%, taking into account of a favourable cost outlook that should be able to offset against the weakening USD/MYR exchange rate. Our TP is incorporated with a 14% ESG discount, as SUCB’s 2.3 ESG score is below our 3.0 country median. Post our earnings adjustment, our DCF-derived TP is now raised to MYR1.04. Our TP implies 0.9x FY25F P/BV against its pre- COVID-19 historical mean of 1.3x.

• Key risks: Higher-than-expected sales volumes, weaker-than-expected USD against the MYR, and lower-than-expected raw material prices.

Source: RHB Research - 30 Aug 2024