Just like other plastic packaging companies, CYL is facing challenges in both in growing its revenue and delivering substantial profit to shareholders. Given the intense competition due to higher capacity supply from the its other competitors (SCGM for example is doubling its capacity via its new plant in Kulai), CYL will need to be more price competitive in trying to attract exiting and new customers which might explain the fall in revenue for the 9m18 to only RM39.2mil from RM45.2 mil recorded in 9m17. This represent a fall of around 13% yoy.
The increasing resin price and higher labour cost has resulted in its cost structure going up which is why the company had posted a loss of RM2.5mil in 9m18 vs a profit of RM900k a year ago. Given that the current oil price is still high at above USD60/bl which itself would mean higher resin cost and the lower demand from the customers (most businesses are moving away from the use of plastics for packaging), we should assume that the under performance will continue in FY19.
If you are looking to diversify your portfolio outside of CYL (due to its earnings uncertainties), I would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.9x PE (based on target FY18 profit of RM145mil. 9m profit is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.7x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17.
FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of the new Myvi and the newly launched SUV Aruz and also the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. The recent announcement of closure and potential disposal of the loss-making alloy wheel manufacturing business alone is expected to boost the company’s profit by an additional RM20mil. I am projecting a profit to shareholder of RM170 mil for FY19 which at the current price values MBMR at only 5.9x PE.
Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions. There are 8 analysts in total covering the stock with most of them having a TP of above RM3 (all have a buy rating). The average TP for the 8 analysts is around RM3.50.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....