LOTTE CHEMICAL TITAN HOLDING BERHAD

KLSE (MYR): LCTITAN (5284)

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Last Price

1.14

Today's Change

0.00 (0.00%)

Day's Change

1.14 - 1.15

Trading Volume

501,600

Details of Changes
Securities After Change
Transactions
Ann. Date Name Details of Changes Securities After Changes
Date Type No. of Shares Price Direct (%) Indirect (%) Total (%)
Discussions
16 people like this. Showing 50 of 12,561 comments

DividendGuy67

It is instructive to compare LCTITAN balance sheet at MRQ (30/9/23) vs say 31/12/20, before it embarks on LINE project. The difference in PPE is substantial - 5.1billion vs 14.9billion, or nearly 10 billion increase in PPE. Its cash holdings was pristine back at 31/12/20 - nearly 4 billion with zero borrowings. Today only 0.8 billion cash, with nearly 4 billion borrowings. With such massive increase in PPE of nearly RM10 billion, market penalizes LCTITAN over the past 2.75 years from RM3 down to RM1.2 say when its NAPS is steady around 5.19 to 5.23. When it price crashes, it was a DOOMSDAY scenario - a 2nd consecutive quarterly gross profit is going to convince more market participants that the earlier thought DOOMSDAY scenario might not happen and if so, there's going to be a strong reassessment of the billions invested in the LINE project. Under a normal scenario, 1 billion spent on PPE is going to valued by market by more than 1 billion, not 300 million worth i.e. this reassessment can really kick in a strong potential recovery if true ...

2 months ago

DividendGuy67

LCTITAN capital commitment continues to shrink massively. At 31/12/22, it was 7.5 billion. At 30/9/23, it is now down to 3.4 billion, i.e. more than half has been spent. From capital perspective, we might be approaching the worst soon since there's clearly not enough cash i.e. LCTITAN will need more monies to complete its capital commitments, either by borrowings or raise capital (diluting shareholders) ... with this type of price action (if it gets to RM1.65 or above), market participants will be increasingly discounting the capital raising option and thinks LCTITAN can grow by borrowing more.

We'll have to wait and see.

Best thing to do when having a position is .. do nothing.

2 months ago

DividendGuy67

A random look at lsat 11 quarters EPS starting from Q1/21, Q2/21, ... to Q3/23.
What pattern do you see?

19.36 .. 16.81 .. 2.14 .. 8.2 .. 4.57 .. (6.41) .. (15.61) .. (13.93) .. (9.87) .. (13.76) .. (2.44).

Q1/23 looks hopeful when the loss went down from (13.93) to (9.87).
Q2/23 looks terrible, when the loss exploded from (9.87) to (13.76).
Q3/23 looks very hopeful, when the loss went down from (13.76) down to (2.44).

When a company financials improves, then, suddenly, the RM10 billlion spent into PPE gives hope and is no longer terrible. When financials deteriorated back in the earlier days and the company kept spending more and more on capital commitment, that's when the market fears the worst that this company is going to drive the business down to the ground. Of course, if the company survives, then, buying when fear is greatest will give the largest rewards. However, if the company did not survive, then, your investment would have gone down the drain together with the company. It was a massive risk taken by the company, hence, Mr Market penalizes this stock massively since 2017 listing.

2 months ago

Jnlee

dividendguy67, thanks for your very analytical comment

2 months ago

DividendGuy67

Nice! 1.39 at lunch close. Greater volume, higher RSI highs suggest outlook on this stock may have changed. Looking closer at the chart, there's that gap early this year that's begging to be closed. That's around RM1.56.

My small position has now become my 2nd largest position after these 2 days move! If I didn't buy more MAYBANK today, it would have become my largest position after these 2 days move! Let's see how the price action goes till Chinese New Year.

2 months ago

Davidl

Finally empire strikes back! More to go guys!

2 months ago

DividendGuy67

This morning, I trimmed my position slightly at 1.42, to sell of the portion I bought at 1.11. 31 sen gain in just a short time is to reduce risk, as it has become too large. Some selling is necessary, to allow price to dip, to form a base, before the next move.

Thanks to LCTITAN, my portfolio has made a new all time high again today.

2 months ago

jinxstock20

Chemical price is rising?

2 months ago

jinxstock20

breaking Rm1.40 again... turn profits in upcoming q4 I guess

2 months ago

heesing62

Let’s hope upcoming quarter they made some profits . Based on current financial status this share is undervalued. Probably because 75% of the shares owned by Lotte HQ , thus prices being suppressed. Minority shareholders must have the will power to hold on . NTA more than 5.

2 months ago

DividendGuy67

Fuiyoh! So nice. 1.45 close, higher than swing high of 1.43 a week ago. Decent chance to close the gap at 1.56.

2 months ago

jinxstock20

I think it follows KOSPI going up and down, technically speaking

2 months ago

JLKL12

Ppl is collecting the shares..

1 month ago

jinxstock20

wow, its momentum is strong today. Excellent QR is coming this month

1 month ago

heesing62

Something is cooking. Hope it can maintain the momentum …..

1 month ago

lloydlim

Big fund is buying recently, good news ahead!

1 month ago

DividendGuy67

Fuiyoh ... so nice. 1.53 close, higher than swing high 1.45 a week ago. Thank-you LCTITAN plus 21 other green stocks to offset 10 reds, to allow my portfolio to hit a new all time high again today, after yesterday and 4 prior days. What a superb start to 2024 after a strong 2023!

1 month ago

jinxstock20

Next station will be Rm1.60

1 month ago

DividendGuy67

http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/01/lctitan.html.

1 month ago

jinxstock20

When will LC Titan announce its Q4 exactly?

1 month ago

Jonathan Keung

Dec 23 { Qtr result } will be announced end of January

1 month ago

staind86

I doubt there will be profit this quarter. Polymer market condition is still weak.

1 month ago

Markv572421

Recovery? so fast climb up ?

1 month ago

curiousq

sifu said much be very very careful with korean

1 month ago

jinxstock20

Who is that sifu? 😆

1 month ago

Jonathan Keung

Lctitan 4qtr result ending Dec 31 continues to bleed. Losses narrow down to - 186 million. Whole year result showed losses widen to -780 million { FY 23 } vs -730 million a year ago. Not a good sign

1 month ago

lloydlim

GG.com?

1 month ago

Blue Tulip

Insiders knew the Qr was not going to be good. Thus, they pushed up the price, hoping that retailers would jump in. Once the Qr is released, they knew that retailers would dump the stocks. Thus, they short-sell. That's why short-selling mechanism is banned in Korea.

1 month ago

Plantermen

Not only short selling but LCtitan cash is burning fast. FY 2022 - 730 Million loss, FY 2023 - 780Million loss. FY 2024 - Forecast 1billion loss. Not forgetting LCtitan finance loan of 11 billion for their Indonesia plant. This is really bad looking at thier numbers

1 month ago

Blue Tulip

I wonder who pushed up the price a month before yesterday, knowing that their cash is burning fast?

1 month ago

Jonathan Keung

Insider luring & trapping retailers. Remember LC Titan is a foreign based .They don't give a hook what happens. Now we understand why they never sought a listings in Singapore or Indonesia

1 month ago

Amazonboy

Louzy korean management....no plan B...oil will be high price..naphta high price..demand low...better 2 closedown...Lol

1 month ago

Blue Tulip

In Malaysia, short-sellers make a lot of money. Unfortunately, retailers like us can't short-sell from our screen.

1 month ago

curiousq

korean harvest delicious malaysian kucai and enjoy eating 😍

1 month ago

icecool

how low will it go ?

1 month ago

kasinathan

90cents

1 month ago

xcu843

This Korean CEO tak boleh pakai and need to step down immediately. He need to responsible on failed delivery profit for 7 quarters.

1 month ago

Nepo

Valuetrap stk..

1 month ago

EatCoconutCanWin

You mean football coach from Korea?

1 month ago

Tigerchan

Its going to 0.55 after CNY. Eat oranges first, i am waiting.

1 month ago

Plantermen

LCTITAN needs a new direction. It's core products facing margin compression. India, Vietnam, Thailand and China started their own country industrial petrol chem manufacturing plant which may hit LCtitan when they come online in 2025

1 month ago

DividendGuy67

This is the reason why I say “Don’t chase”.
Lucky manage to sell significant amount at 1.4x to 1.5x. However still have slightly more than half unsold. Will be looking to buy back what’s sold at 1.1x and 1.0x (if it gets there).

1 month ago

calvintaneng

recession coming

consumer discretionary bad

safety is palm oil

BURSA YEAR 2024: Rise of Value Investing After Gambling Gang gone Busted, Calvin Tan

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2024-02-02-story-h-189370559-BURSA_YEAR_2024_Rise_of_Value_Investing_After_Gambling_Gang_gone_Busted#google_vignette

1 month ago

DividendGuy67

Hmmm ... after 7 consecutive quarter reporting losses, chart action suggests that speculators are now trying to pick bottoms and betting that LCTITAN's prospects are now looking brighter.

Can't complain. Not chasing. Happy to hold and watch.

2 weeks ago

stockraider

Lcttitan is at recovery stage now loh!
This business is cyclical thus it always recover mah!

At the low cycle u should start accumulating loh!

2 weeks ago

DividendGuy67

@raider, agree it is long term cyclical, that's a sound strategy for cyclicals, except the question is - has it bottomed yet ? What is your average accumulation price and position size (what % of capital) in LCTITAN?

2 weeks ago

DividendGuy67

My most recent accumulation price is 1.19. It brings my average price down to 1.33, so, I'm still in red. I have around 2.5% of my capital here, so, the unrealized loss is very small.

Normally, I'm not excited at my losses, so, I don't think I'll add more because I already added at 1.19.

2 weeks ago

Plantermen

For myself having a long term view any short term share price fluctuations isn't really a concern. However our ringgit depreciating value vs the USD is a real concern. LCtitan group borrowings of USD 2.2 billion in 2020with the Korean excim bank to finance their factory Indonesian plant an expansion is a real concern. From an estimated cost of app 10billion ringgit. Now it's has ballooned up to 11 billion in ringgit terms. Obviously this USD borrowing's will have an impart on thier bottom line. Worse the Fed Reserve isn't going to lower their rates any time soon. The Korean Exim Bank rates aren't cheap { at 5.0-5.5%

1 week ago

Jonathan Keung

No dividend forth coming for the next 2 years. Only hope is capital appreciation. If lock it at low prices last year . Now sell and take the profit

1 week ago

DividendGuy67

Strong price drop from 1.57 swing high down to 1.15 close over short time (1+ months). Significant fear there.
Originally planned to accumulate at 1.10 and 1.00, but in view of strong price drop, will only bite small there.
Odds to make new all time lows below 0.975 is now significant - say 20%-30% chance. We like fear opportunities, but the question is always - where is that point of maximum fear? So many levels to choose from.

In the scenario where it makes new all time low, patience is required for cyclical stock. It could take years. Meanwhile EPF monies earn consistently 5%-7% per annum returns, so, why rush? If 3 years, your EPF earns 20% profit already. If you own LCTITAN, you are betting that it will rebound faster but more likely (in view of downtrend) to lose out to EPF.

Always play with the odds. Better to not add to your losers, but if must add, add small and be prepared to be underwater for up to years if need be.

3 days ago

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