LOTTE CHEMICAL TITAN HOLDING BERHAD
KLSE (MYR): LCTITAN (5284)
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Last Price
1.21
Today's Change
+0.02 (1.68%)
Day's Change
1.18 - 1.22
Trading Volume
534,700
Details of Changes
Securities After Change
Transactions
| Ann. Date | Name | Details of Changes | Securities After Changes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Type | No. of Shares | Price | Direct (%) | Indirect (%) | Total (%) | ||||
Discussions
16 people like this. Showing 50 of 12,477 comments
Upgrade LC Titan to a BUY with a DCF derived TP of RM1.56 (WACC 7.5%, TG 0%)
Source: BIMB Securities Research
2023-06-04 10:32
Never trust this kind of analysis ,report or recommendations. LC titan have incurred substantial losses for the last 5-6 Quarters. Based on their annual report. They expect a financial turnaround in their business in 2025 { when their Indonesia factory plant plan Capex expansion is completed } it's a long ...long investment commitment not a short a term buy. Anything can happen in betw 2-3 years from now
2023-06-06 17:51
LC titan have entered into a 12 year term loan of USD 2.4 billion facility to fund the Indonesia Line project. With the USD FED rates ballooned up from 1% to current 5% and the USD exchange rate sky rocketing from 3.9 MYR to current 4.6.MYR The cost have blown up from 9.36 MYR billion to 11.04 billion MYR. It's worrying and bad for any borrowing's denominated in USD. You get hit by the exchange rate and the interest rate respectively. If the FED { Jerome Powell} continues their so called hawkish stand on inflation. Please remember do your own research before you buy or sell.
2023-06-06 22:03
Coming qtr result ( Apr -Jun } to be announced at end July . Doesn't look good going by past result.
2 months ago
LCTITAN
1Q FY 23 loss of - MYR232 million
4Q FY 22 loss of - MYR326 million
3Q FY 22 loss of - MYR356 million
2Q FY 22 loss of - MYR 274 million
Coming 2Q result expect loss betw
MYR 250 million amid weakened demand & high inventories. Not a buy or sell call {Please do your research before you buy or sell}
2 months ago
2 Qtr result ending FY Jun 23. LC titan reported another wider nett loss of -313 million. 3 Qtr ending September is not encouraging going by the tone of the company board & management.
1 month ago
this Lctitan game plan is very simple.
it will drop until super low valuation, then owners will privatise it
then later they will relist it as super high valuations.
they done it once before, and seems like they are doing it again
1 month ago
this share was first listed in 2005
then it slumped and was privatised in 2011
then it was relisted at super high valuations in 2017
now price is slumping, and the owners are just waiting for the right time to privatise it again for another round of super high valuation relisting
1 month ago
Yes. Looks like their game plan to maximise their losses prior to the Indonesia plant completion in 2025 or 2026. With 5 or 6 years of yearly high losses. Timing is right to take it private with low valuations and negative cash flow. They do it once no stopping for them to follow the second time round or in a extreme scenario. The bank will go on a auction sphree if they are unable to cough up the loans repayment. Just a pure hypothetically conjunction.
1 month ago
that is y sb said if you owns a listed company, you are few lucky people on the earth that can easily earn and enjoy your life..but before that you need to struggle very hard..and of course LUCK is a most important factor.
BUT, if No try, definately no luck.
1 month ago
LCtitan in a deep sink hole. 10 year financing for app USD 2.5 billion for their Indonesia plant expansion. 2.5 x 4.6 = 11.5 billion MYR. Yearly USD interest rate at 5% pa plus currency conversion. You work out the figs
1 month ago
wtf, you bought at 3? is it because of Choivo's article? There was a period... i think OTB 'read' Choivo's article and told his supporters to invest, say got bright future. Choivo predict it to read Rm6 if I am not mistaken.
I know they've delisted before. Just like Maxis. Never trust such management.
1 month ago
Never catch a falling knives. 3qtr Fy 23 ending Sep.finacing cost on the 11 billion kicks in
1 month ago
This stock is volatile. It dropped below RM1 before during Covid scare (Mar 2020). Then, it rallied 3.5 times to over RM3.50 in 12 months. And now, it's doing a "die slowly" drop for 2+ years ... still downtrending and trading below the 200dMA and the slope of the 200dMA is still down - it's trying to form a base. That base will take a long time to form. I'm still unsure if lower prices is a buy, as this company has taken on a lot of debt and what was previously excellent Balance Sheet has now turned messy. However, the business it's in is cyclical and as it so happens, current cycle is not so good. Utilization was 66%, management seems optimistic that this will rise to 70%-75% in the coming months, but nobody really knows the future. I feel I already have enough, so, likely there's nothing to do but to sit tight.
1 month ago
3 years ago, it's hard to believe that LCTITAN's Net Cash was worth RM1.69 (nearly RM4 billion).
Today, all that Net Cash is gone ... zero and negative once include borrowings. As a result, today's price is hovering near RM1.
This is a classic case of how ambitious management destroys wealth:
1. Net Cash alone is meaningless - the stockmarket is littered with examples where new ambitious management who inherited the Net Cash destroys all past hard work.
2. The problem with this company is that it doesn't share more regularly the previous Net Cash with shareholders.
3. The bigger problem is that management is not held accountable by shareholders - shareholders let management destorys wealth. Else, the CEO and the whole management team should already be sacked, but it's far too late for that now.
Had they not be so ambitious, this stock will still be trading 2-3 times higher than today..... and I wouldn't have bought a single share!!! Haha.
1 month ago
Bottom may still not be in sight. Analyst recommendations: 1 Sell, 1 Hold, 2 Buys. When the 2 Buys become Hold/Sell, then, can safely go in and accumulate. Haha.
1 month ago
From last AGM:
What is the anticipated dividend rate for FYE 2023?
The Company has a dividend policy of paying 50% of our profit. We will continue to meet that
requirement and pay the 50% dividend on profit. If the Company has sufficient cash like last year,
we will consider declaring special dividend to reward shareholders, subject to Board approval.
Commentary: Looks like in 2023, there won't be any dividends paid since:
1. Expected Net Profit is negative i.e. nil Dividends.
2. Net Cash is negative i.e. nil Special Dividends.
When will all analysts call for a Sell? Then, the bottom will come quicker.
1 month ago
The primary feedstock for LCTITAN's business is naphtha. Since July 2023, Naphtha prices has risen from a low of USD520/T to near USD700/T ... it'll be interesting to watch the Q3 report at the end of this Oct - the question is will Q3 losses be even bigger than Q2 loss?
1 month ago
Such a sorry state of affairs. This company's NAV is around 5.25/shr, yet, the stock is trading only at RM1.15, and the company - that used to be flushed with cash, but now in debt, and expects the debt to keep rising - can't afford to do any share buyback, despite TREMENDOUS value .... Price/Book is only 0.22 ... basically every RM1 of asset in the company is only worth 22 sen ... including the RM4 billion recently spent to convert cash into asset. Such an extremely sorry state of affairs. The entire Board and Senior Management responsible for this sorry state of affairs should all be sacked.
1 month ago
For shareholders, the biggest worry is whether the company will start asking for rights issue in the coming 1-2 years. The capital needs is at least another RM5.5 billion for the LINE project and more. Already, the company is in net debt position. This is another RM2.50 equivalent of debt to be had. Current company price is RM1.15. Shareholders should grill the Board and Management whether or not they foresee rights issue in the next 3 years to dilute existing shareholder's share. Analysts should analyze this angle more and be more transparent in their next 3 year projections, if there's going to be further shareholder dilution. Then, recommend SELL clearly!
1 month ago
In summary:
- No Dividend in sight for the rest of 2023.
- No Special Dividend in sight for the rest of 2023.
- No sign of bottoming to the Borrowings.
- Company needs to commit to borrow even more - maybe another RM5.5 billion.
- The entire Company's equity is not enough to back. Debt to Market Cap is ridiculously high.
- Feedstock naphtha is still on its way up and getting more costly to further create even bigger losses to come.
- Very likely to have further shareholder dilution.
What is keeping analysts from seeing these bad news over the coming 2-3 years?
1 month ago
Perhaps all the Buy Analysts are too junior and believe the 60:40 Debt:Equity promise.
- On paper, the Equity is huge. RM15.6 billion. (equivalent to RM5.25/share).
- On paper, 60:40 means they can borrow up to RM25 billion!!
- Current market cap is only RM2.6 billion.
If this company borrows RM25 billion with Debt / Market Cap of 10 times, will this company still be around or all its assets will have already been liquidated and go into PN17? How real is the equity of RM5.25/share when market is valuing these at RM1.15??? I would say practically impossible because noone has the cash, else, they would already be grabbing LCTITAN at RM1.15/share ...
1 month ago
LCTITAN competitor looking to expand should seriously consider buying LCTITAN share. LCTITAN spends RM4 billion cash to turn cash into asset where buying LCTITAN shares would be like buying these RM 4 billion assets at the price of 22 sen for every RM1 spent. No need to expand themselves - all of them should band in, just buy LCTITAN shares and when have enough, execute a breakup and own these assets at massive discounts. They should punish LCTITAN Board and senior management for being so ambitious and irresponsible - the best punishment is get rid of them!
1 month ago
In Q3/23, LCTITAN's feedstock costs have soared 30-35%. Sure, its outputs PP/PE market price has also gone up but only by 5% or so ... LCTITAN's competitors like LCTITAN has seen their inventories rising in the past ... Will be interested to see if they will be able to make real change to their inventories in the coming Q3 report in October.
I think the only reason why I am still holding is because it may be possible that PP prices have already seen their cycle low. Last 2 cycle lows were Jan 2016 and Mar 2020. Was May 2023 the cycle low or more new lows to come? If May 2023 turns out to be cycle low, then, may be good to accumulate LCTITAN ... problem though is that by the time LINE comes on board in 2025, PP prices may have peaked and come down i.e. all these ramped up production will have come to nought if PP prices starts to come down instead of rising.
Hard as it may, maybe the best thing for LCTITAN is to accelerate further its borrowings to complete faster its LINE project so that by the time it's ready for production, they can sell at rising rather than declining PP cycle prices.
However, speeding up the LINE project including accelerating borrowings further should further cause LCTITAN share price to fall, as market is already so fearful. Board and Management have already been super ambitious, why not even more DOUBLY, DOUBLY ambitious??? ;-)
1 month ago
But if I have to choose between LCTITAN and PCHEM, I would consider PCHEM better. In my view, this company is better positioned to benefit from the next upcycle than LCTITAN, because of LCTITAN getting bogged down in its LINE project and so, won't be so clean to benefit from it.
Unlike my paper loss in LCTITAN, my holdings in PCHEM is already up by +13%. As they say, you should ride your winners and let your losses go ... I won't cut, but I think I may add PCHEM on dips over the next year or 2.
1 month ago
Pchem is way better
Lctitan the game plan seem to be list at high -> privatise at low -> list at high -> privatise at low -> ........ (repeat repeat repeat)
1 month ago
Definitely choose Pchem
I also already bought some Pchem in my portfolio and waiting to buy more if it further drop below RM 6..
Avoid Lctitian, bad mgt couple with value trap
1 month ago
Price 1.25
Support 1.10(If no break to confirm upward)
Tp 1.60-1.80
30/8/23 12.20am
3 weeks ago
Still not the right time to buy this shares
From the info above need to wait until 2025..
2 weeks ago
Extract:-
"On a bright note, the RM18 billion Lotte Chemical Indonesia Ethylene (LINE) project in Indonesia is seen as a key catalyst for LCT upon its completion in 2025, as it is set to propel the group into the top three companies in the industry in Southeast Asia, with the other two being Thailand-based Siam Cement Group pcl and PTT Global Chemical pcl."
2 weeks ago
Turnaround may take longer than 2025 or may not come at all. If during good times, they lose monies, the bet in turnaround is not prudent. At best one can only *hope* for speculations of a turnaround. The company’s financial structure is permanently altered 2 years ago with the huge loans vs massive Net Cash then. This is no longer the same company. Bad case of mismanagement. The loss is permanent.
1 week ago
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2023-05-25 09:52