DUFU TECHNOLOGY CORP. BHD

KLSE (MYR): DUFU (7233)

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Last Price

1.77

Today's Change

+0.03 (1.72%)

Day's Change

1.75 - 1.80

Trading Volume

923,600

Discussions
11 people like this. Showing 50 of 7,234 comments

Souljaboiiii

Q4'23 for Dufu is definitely a QoQ and YoY growth.
The downside is capped... Let's see how the market will react to this.
The short term fluctuation is a cost that investors will need to pay if he wants to enjoy the upside.

3 weeks ago

Souljaboiiii

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomcoughlin/2024/01/30/c4q-2023-hard-disk-drive-industry-update/?sh=620ecca758ae

The recession for HDD was bottomed in Q3'23 and the recovery started in Q4'23.
The amount of HDD shipments does not matter to Dufu since it is a niche player which benefits the most when the exabyte shipped increases.

2 weeks ago

Souljaboiiii

I made a mistake in the previous thread where I said Q4'23 is definitely a QoQ and YoY growth.
The answer is I don't know and was being ego to say something like this.

2 weeks ago

Souljaboiiii

Being a contra investor requires a lot of patience and conviction to see the thesis to be played out.
The market is being quite ignorant to the fact that nearline HDD demand is on uptrend again... They underestimate the demand for large capacity HDD due to AI introduction...

2 weeks ago

Souljaboiiii

Seagate HAMR Moziac disk will not treaten Western Digital nor Toshiba nearline HDD... UltraSMR will continue to win market share... This is because CSPs are not asking for certain technology, but looking forward to products that can deliver the best TCO.
There will be 1 million HAMR HDD to be shipped in this first half... 30TB HAMR has 10 disks... 10 disks with 9 ring spacers...

2 weeks ago

Souljaboiiii

Both WD and Seagate are guiding better Q2 results, primary driven by HDD demand...
I am quite certain that Dufu will deliver a better than expected result in Q4'23, and a better prospects guidance...

2 weeks ago

Souljaboiiii

Although their spacer ring division will not be growing as they used to be... Their next growth leg will be coming from metal stamping and fabrication division... They invested a lot in China... Dufusion bought a land at Bukit Minyak for future expansion... They are moving the profits from HDD to other divisions...

2 weeks ago

Souljaboiiii

Seagate transcript:
We enter calendar 2024 with increased confidence in our non-GAAP gross margin trajectory, including our ability to reclaim 30% minimum benchmark level at quarterly revenues that are at least 20% below our prior cyclical peak. From a demand standpoint, gradual recovery within the U.S. cloud market has started to take shape, reflecting solid progress in consuming excess inventory, along with more stable end-market behavior. Enterprise OEM demand trends have also stabilized within the U.S. markets. Customer feedback still points to macro-related concerns, although IT hardware budgets are projected to modestly improve in calendar 2024, and traditional server growth is expected to resume trends that support incremental HDD demand growth in the calendar year.

We were also encouraged to see incremental demand among certain non-U.S. cloud and enterprise customers in the December quarter. Across the broader China markets, we project a relatively slower pace of recovery given the ongoing economic challenges within the region. However, some local governments announced further steps to support the region's economy, which our customers believe will bolster local demand across mass capacity markets in China in the second half of the calendar year.

1 week ago

Souljaboiiii

WDC earnings transcript:
Turning to HDD. The sequential revenue increase was driven by improving nearline demand and pricing. Moreover, we are encouraged by demand in China with revenue doubling on a sequential and year-over-year basis, both of which were ahead of our expectations. We anticipate year-over-year growth in HDD throughout this calendar year.
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At the end of the fiscal second quarter, cash and cash equivalents were 2.5 billion and total liquidity was 4.7 billion, including the undrawn revolver capacity of 2.25 billion. For the fiscal third quarter, our non-GAAP guidance is as follows: We expect revenue to be in the range of 3.2 billion to 3.4 billion. We expect sequential revenue growth to be mainly driven by an increase in HDD. We anticipate flash revenue to be up slightly as we remain focused on optimizing bit shipments and ASP.

1 week ago

Souljaboiiii

The more I shout, the more it drops.
Maybe it's doing CNY sales.
Maybe I'm so wrong.
Maybe the upcoming QR is awful.
Maybe...
Let's focus on the fundamental rather than the stock price movement...

1 week ago

howardmark

Looking at price and capacity trends, at what year SSD will surpass HDD in terms of price per gigabyte storage?

Predicting the exact year when SSDs will surpass HDDs in terms of price per gigabyte is challenging due to various market factors. However, several indications suggest this shift may happen sooner than initially expected:
Industry projections:
FDI Consulting: Estimates SSDs to become cheaper than HDDs on a dollar-per-terabyte basis by 2026.
Wikibon: Projects consumer-grade flash SSDs to surpass HDDs in cost per gigabyte by 2026.
TrendForce: Believed a NAND flash memory oversupply in 2022 could have caused SSD prices to drop by 20%, further accelerating the trend.
Current trends:
SSD prices have been steadily declining over the past decade due to advancements in flash memory technology and manufacturing efficiencies.
HDD prices have remained relatively stable or even increased slightly in recent years.
Demand for SSDs is increasing rapidly, fueled by their performance and reliability advantages.
Caveats:
NAND flash memory shortages could temporarily slow down the price decline of SSDs.
HDD manufacturers may introduce new technologies to improve their cost-efficiency.
Market forces such as trade wars or economic fluctuations could impact pricing.
Overall, While an exact year is difficult to pinpoint, the evidence suggests SSDs surpassing HDDs in cost per gigabyte is likely within the next few years (2024-2026). The specific timeline will depend on the factors mentioned above.

1 week ago

Souljaboiiii

Ok, let's put our money on bet.
I suggest you to try to short STX which is listed on Nasdaq. Their main revenue (>80%) is coming from HDD. Instead, I will long Dufu & STX, see who's return is higher in the next 5 years. If what you said is valid, you should be very profitable by shorting STX.

The cost per GB of a large capacity HDD is cheaper by 7x or even more than a large capacity SSD.
So when you think SSD will replace HDD in data center?
Do you know >80% of data in the hyperscale conventional data center are stored in HDD?

1 week ago

Souljaboiiii

You believe in what the predictors are saying, but too blind to see what's the "CURRENT TREND". What I witness is that nearline HDD is going to recover throughout this whole calendar year. This is align with what Western Digital and Seagate are guiding.
For your information, Western Digital manufactures NAND flash memory as well.

1 week ago

gooman

stock market reflects a view of the economy six months in advance,

1 week ago

howardmark

Souljabooii, the more you promote, the more it drops, obviously the market doesn't buy your view. It doesn't care. The market is forward looking. Cut loss to preserve your capital.

1 week ago

Superich

From Souljabooii's posts, I can see that he is merely expressing and sharing his views of HDD future based on his research which I found very informative. Readers are free to draw their own judgement and why the fuss??

1 week ago

Souljaboiiii

TSMC just guided their Capex will be 28-32 billion USD in this year compared to ~30 billion USD last year. Most of their capex will be used to expand their AI related segment. The current bottleneck of Nvidia AI accelerator is the advanced packaging that is used to package the HBM DRAM by using CoWos technique (2.5D packaging). Lots of OSAT, even foundaries like TSMC, Samsung and Intel are expanding their advanced packaging factories.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2023/q4

6 days ago

Souljaboiiii

Slowly but surely the money will be poured to the equipment manufacturers then further down to the precision metal manufacturers.

6 days ago

nicholas99

the thing is all the big factory build their own factory. so, it will have limited opportunity.

6 days ago

nicholas99

when you are as big as tsmc. you would want to make things yourself to control the cost.

6 days ago

nicholas99

and if packaging is the way forward, they will build their own factory to have more designs down the 5-10 years road. and not rely on 3rd party..

6 days ago

nicholas99

its crazy to depend his 5-10 years fortune on 3rd party company.

6 days ago

Souljaboiiii

I have no idea why the stock plunged from RM1.94 to the current price.
But I guess the real reason behind the plunge is due to the sluggishness of the Q4'23 earnings report. Institutions maybe already access the QR report and decided to dump the shares.

6 days ago

Souljaboiiii

Wait... You mean TSMC wants to build the equipment by themselves?
Do they have the capability?
Why Apple chose to use ICs from other companies instead of building all by themselves?

6 days ago

Souljaboiiii

Do you really understand how difficult it is to build an equipment like the ASML EUV?
Why US ban China from buying high end EUV from ASML?
Why AMAT, KLA, LAM and etc are still there but not slaughtered by TSMC expansion?

6 days ago

Souljaboiiii

Control cost is by having a lot of suppliers. The more they are, the cheaper it will be the equipment. FYI, companies like ASML has no competitors in their league. The price of a EUV can go up to 500 million USD just for one equipment. This industry is not a "commodity" or any "low barrier to entry industry". The amount of patents and intellectual properties are insane and I don't think in any near future, TSMC will be able to build their own equipment, especially the EUV machine.

6 days ago

gooman

kobay!

6 days ago

KPH5328

thanks for your sharing Souljabo, more than 76% of its revenue is generated from the
HDD segment as per AR2023, appreciate if you could shed some lights how TSMC Capex would have spillover effect to precision maker like Dufu, no doubt data center expansion has to support growth in AI & others which will benefit Dufu.

5 days ago

Souljaboiiii

TSMC is just a benchmark. It shows that the semicon industry is reviving again.
The capex guided by TSMC is mainly to expand their manufacturing capacities for AI chips (Nvidia, AMD and etc). Therefore, we can expect that the money will be channelled to a lot of front-end to back-end (CoWos capacity) equipment manufacturers. The equipment manufacturers will look for precision metal players to manufacture the modules (precision parts). Other than TSMC, big players like ASE and Amkor are also expanding to provide advanced packaging (2.5D) services.
This year will be a HUAT year for all the semicon players (not so huat for automotive)...
Logic, Memory, Analog, Sensors... The market will be hotter once Intel introduces their AI PC...

5 days ago

Souljaboiiii

Nearline HDD is mainly used in the conventional data center. AI data center has a lot of issues to solve, power is one of them. FYI, GPU is very power intensive. Hence, you will see headlines like Microsoft is proposing to use nuclear energy for their AI data center and etc... In general HDD uses more power than NAND flash (SSD), so I don't think it will be the main storage that will be used in the AI data center. It will be benefitted by the trend, because generative AI will create a lot of new contents. The new contents have to be stored, and nearline HDD is the most economical way to store these data. This is guided by Seagate in their earnings call, I don't have the details and firm answer for this.

5 days ago

nicholas99

No one can replace ASML. But TSMC can replace advanced packaging factories. And they wanted to do that. Due to US ban on China Etc reason.

5 days ago

nicholas99

What happened after 1nm and they cannot go lower.. They will start stacking chips.. this is where advanced packaging is important for future. And TSMC definitely will build their own advanced packaging factories.

5 days ago

Souljaboiiii

The current price trend is indicating that Dufu is going to bankrupt in near terms... The downtrend doesn't make sense... Both STX and WDC share price are soaring to the moon while their supplier... Dufu is moving to the south... Perhaps I'm so wrong...

5 days ago

nicholas99

probably because lack of contracts and jobs.

5 days ago

Souljaboiiii

I would say the fabless players will look for more than one supplier...
NO ONE WILL WISH TO RELY 100% on TSMC.
They will place order with other OSAT players like ASE/AMKOR.
No doubt that TSMC will further expand their advance packaging capacities, but do they wish to take orders from chips that are 10nm and below? Keep in mind that the margin is so low, and saturated with China players in this region...

5 days ago

NatsukoMishima

Dufu , kobay both PE only worth around 10 ! Higher is overvalue , sorry to say that is the truth !

5 days ago

NatsukoMishima

Vstecs better than all these stocks !

5 days ago

Souljaboiiii

Some suppliers went bust during this HDD recession. WDC and STX mentioned that this recession hurt their supply chain gao gao. Hence, I am very confident that WDC and STX will not terminate their contracts with Dufu. A good relationship with its customer is also a moat.

1 day ago

Souljaboiiii

If the hyperscaler is asking for more HDD, WDC and STX also mentioned there is a supply issue due to unhealthy supply chain. Keep in mind that Toyota once shut down their factory due to insufficient disk space. This shows how important is a 'cheap but large capacity storage devices'.

1 day ago

Souljaboiiii

All the local OSAT players are getting more orders from China. Customers are looking for a more resilient supply chain instead of focusing all their resources in China. This will benefit our local OSAT players, as well as equipment and precision metal players.

1 day ago

Souljaboiiii

The semiconductor industry is definitely going to revive in this second half of this year. There is no turning back, we all are using more digital devices.

1 day ago

Souljaboiiii

Notion HDD revenue rebounded from 16million last quarter to 23million this quarter...

15 hours ago

Souljaboiiii

That's a 45% increase in HDD revenue...

15 hours ago

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