ATFX Market Outlook, 2018 Oct 30

Reminder: In the past weekend, the European region has implemented winter time, and the European trading hours and data release time are one hour later than the summer time. Winter time will be implemented in North America from coming this Sunday to March 10, 2019, and the trading hours and data release time will be one hour later than the summer time.

Personal opinions today:

Japan announced the unemployment rate in September this morning, which fell to 2.3% better than previous month. It was a three-month decline. The data stimulated the Japanese Nikkei index to rebound more than 200 points, while the US dollar against the yen rebounded over 30 points.

In the afternoon today, the European region released a number of economic important data, with special attention to important data from Germany and the Eurozone. At present, the market expects that the unemployment rate and the number of unemployment in Germany will have an opportunity to improve, but the Eurozone economic sentiment index in October, industrial prosperity and consumer confidence index and the third quarter GDP initial value are expected to be lower than the previous value, bad for the euro. In addition, at 21:00 tonight, the market estimates that the initial value of CPl in Germany fell in October, which is also bearish for the euro and other European currencies.

At present, there is a lack of good economic data and news in Europe. It is estimated that the euro, the British pound and the Swiss franc will continue to move downwards against the US dollar. However, if the economic data of the above European regions is not further lower than the market expectation, it is expected that the European currency will be adjusted, recovering from the low level and repairing some of the downside.

Tomorrow, the Eurozone announced the unemployment rate and CPl, the United States announced ADP job data. The market is on the sidelines and estimates of improved economic data in Europe and a decrease in employment in the United States. The dollar has a chance to fall and give the European currency a rebound. If the dollar is likely to fall, gold may find support between $1225 and $1,223. Of course, the trend and fluctuation of gold, more importantly, the performance maybe follow by the US Dow and the global stock market.

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD

1.1370/1.1355 support

1.1400/1.1415 resistance

Technically, the euro continues to decline. If the important data in the European region is released in the afternoon, the euro still has not broken the resistance of 1.1400 and 1.1415, indicating that the trend has not changed and has the opportunity to continue to test the lower. Important support level target is 1.1355. However, the fundamentals maybe changing. Investors are concerned that the US ADP job data will decrease in October, and the euro will have a chance to rise. However, it must be noted that the German Chancellor has planned to-retired, and the market is worried that the political situation in Europe will be unstable and the euro will be negative.

GBPUSD

1.2790/1.2770 support

1.2830/1.2850 resistance

The market is concerned about the position of the Bank of England on interest rates and monetary policy this Friday. But before Friday, more important data is worthy of attention, and the short-term part is bad. However, the market is expected to announce that the US ADP job data in October will be weaker than expected, and the bearish US dollar, the pound may be stable at 1.2785, and test the resistance is 1.2830 and 1.2850.

USDCHF

1.0025/1.0045 resistance

0.9995/0.9975 support

The weaker euro affects the performance of the Swiss franc stronger. Once the Brexit negotiations and the Italian budget remain unresolved. Some euro funds flow into the Swiss franc, and the Swiss franc is stronger than the euro. Technically, the USD/CHF resistance of 1.0025 has not broken. If the US dollar fell due to the weak US job data, the US dollar against the Swiss franc had the opportunity to first adjust to 0.9995/0.9975 support.

USD/JPY

112.60/112.75 resistance

112.20/112.05 support

Fluctuations in the US stock market and global stock markets have driven the Nikkei index to fluctuate. The most important stock market trend is often related to the dollar against the yen. At present, we continue to observe the time of different trading zones and pay attention to the impact of the stock market on the pace of the US dollar against the yen. Technically, continue to focus on the resistance of 112.60 and 112.75. If the stock market rises, the dollar-yen has a chance to break through. The market is watching the US job data fall tomorrow night, it is estimated that the dollar-yen fall as well.

AUDUSD

0.7085/0.7100 resistance

0.7050/0.7035 support

In this morning, Australia government announced the September construction permit rate saw growth and boosted the Australian dollar. However, Australia will announce the third quarter of CPl tomorrow, and the market is expected to decline, which may be negative for the Australian dollar. If there is no breakthrough in the resistance of 0.7085 and 0.7100, AUDUSD will go down.

NZDUSD

0.6540/0.6555 resistance

0.6520/0.6505 support

Tomorrow, New Zealand government announced the September construction permit, the market is estimated to be similar to Australia. The most important AUDUSD and NZDUSD’s trend is roughly the same. Now, If the New Zealand dollar is stable at 0.6505 against the US dollar and breaks through the resistance of 0.6540 and 0.6555, the head and shoulders are formed, and the trend is expected to rise further.

USD/CAD

1.3080/1.3060 support

1.3125/1.3145 resistance

The oil price has once again downward, and the US dollar has risen against the Canadian dollar. However, the market is expected to the US ADP employment and Canada's August GDP in tomorrow, which is likely to increase the Canadian dollar. If the short-term oil price trend does not fall sharply, the Canadian dollar can still maintain a bullish trend.

EUR/GBP

0.8890/0.8905 resistance

0.8870/0.8855 support

The EU and the British government said that the Brexit agreement still needs time to discuss, the British prime minister's status is affected, and the bearish pound is expected to continue its upward trend against the pound. If the fundamentals have not changed, it is estimated that the trend will continue to rise. In the next two days, the euro zone announced a number of important data, the euro reaction may be larger, pay attention to the same volatility of the euro against the pound. At the same time, the German Chancellor has planning to retire, and the market worried that the political situation in Europe was unstable and the euro was bad. The euro has a chance to fall against the pound.

EURCHF

1.1415/1.1430 resistance

1.1385/1.1370 support

After the euro and the Swiss franc showed a double-top pattern, the trend showed an adjustment in the development of the pattern, with a neckline of 1.1365. Currently in the neckline support consolidation, pay attention to the resistance of 1.1415 and 1.1430. At the same time, the German Chancellor has planning to retire, and the market worried that the political situation in Europe was unstable and the euro was bad. The euro has a chance to fall against the Swiss franc.

XAUUSD

1233/1235 resistance

1225/1223 support

The US Dow and global stock markets are vibrating and even affecting Asian stock markets. Gold is often used as a hedge against funds. When the stock market fell, the price of gold rose. Technically continue to maintain the important resistance 1239 and 1240. Short-term gold prices fell below 1230 and 1228 respectively, and the trend was bearish. However, we must pay attention to the trend of global stock markets and grasp the changes in the trend of gold. The market is waiting to see the US employment data tomorrow night, and gold has a chance to rise.

US crude oil futures:

68.00/68.65 resistance

66.60/66.20 support

The United States officially imposed sanctions on Iran soon, and the price of oil should be go higher. Although the Saudi oil country organization said it may increase production, oil prices fell. However, the market is still waiting to the US job report and the amount of crude oil inventories this week, which is expected to boost oil prices in the short term. The recommendation is currently focused on $66 support. If the rebound is concerned about $68.

BTCUSD:

6580 / 6650 resistance

6260 /6060 support

After the US released the Beige Book report, the US dollar weakened, positive the bitcoin. The market, now,focused on US job data  this week. As expectation the bitcoin is test the  US6260 support and US6060 important support.

Hope you enjoy and have happy trade!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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