Early this morning, the US Federal Reserve announced the interest rate rising by 0.25%, and the target rate rose to 2.5%, in line with expectations. After the meeting, the statement said that the pace of interest rate hikes began to slow down next year. From September, it is expected to raise interest rates three times in 2019 and now lower it to the expected two times. The Fed said that the economy may slow down next year, but the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%, and wages have a chance to rise. The overall Fed’s comments and outlook, the dollar’s ​​strength is expected to weaken another currency.

 

After the Fed’s interest rate decision, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England also have the interest rate and monetary decision today . The market is concerned about the results and implications of the Bank of England monetary policy at night. If the Bank of England is under the risk of Brexit, tightening monetary policy may bring a short-term boost to the pound. But it also affects the long-term trend of the pound weakening.

 

Compared with today's European and US data, the market may be more concerned about the UK and US GDP outlook and results, especially US GDP data tomorrow. At present, the market expects US GDP to maintain a growth of 3.5%, and short-term gains in US dollars. However, it must be noted that global fund managers and investment portfolios will begin to be consolidated by the end of the year. The US dollar may be adjusted for gain in the second half of the year, and gold may also adjusted.

 

Today's suggestion:

 

EURUSD

1.1400/1.1420 resistance

1.1350/1.1335 support

After the Fed announced a rate hike, the dollar will rise and the European currency will be weak. Technically, the euro fell from the resistance of 1.1440 and broke through the moving average support. There is a chance to test the 1.1350 and 1.1335 support. The market is looking a the UK and US GDP results tomorrow, and it is expected that the short-term EUR/USD will rise and fall between support and resistance.

 

GBPUSD

1.2635/1.2650 resistance

1.2580/1.2560 support

The Fed raises interest rates, the Fed expects to raise interest rates twice next year, but the UK has a risk of Brexit. The market expects that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged this evening. It is believed that it will limit the pound's rise and is more likely to fall. At present, the Brexit deadline is 100 days. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of sterling fluctuations during the period. At the same time, it is expected that the risk of Brexit will increase and the trend of the British pound against the US dollar remains weak.

 

USDCHF

0.9965/0.9980 resistance

0.9925/0.9910 support

The Fed’s interest rate hike and outlook for a rate hike will continue, and the euro’s performance will weaken, indirectly affecting the Swiss franc. Technically, we can refer to the resistance of 0.9965 and 0.9880. Short-term support is focused on 0.9910 support.

 

USD/JPY

112.65/112.85 resistance

112.20/112.05 support

The Fed raised interest rates, the dollar and the yen spread widened, the dollar rose against the yen, but the US Dow (US30) trend and Japan's Nikkei index (JP225) fell, limiting the dollar against the yen. Investors are waiting to see the current trend of stock market development. If the US Dow or Japan's Nikkei continues to fall, the USD/JPY will likely follow the trend. Technical attention is paid to 112.20 and 112.05 support, while resistance is maintained at 112.65 and 112.85.

 

AUDUSD

0.7140/0.7160 resistance

0.7085/0.7070 support

The Federal Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy record, the expected interest rate remains unchanged, while the Fed still maintains a rate hike outlook, the Australian dollar fell as the interest rate spread widened. In addition, China and the United States plan to start to discuss the trade war in January next year, affecting the investment climate. It is expected that the above news will continue to be digested during the day and it is possible to test the low position.

 

NZDUSD

0.6800/0.6815 resistance

0.6735/0.6720 support

The Fed raised interest rates and still maintain a rate hike outlook. In addition, the market expects the US GDP data released tomorrow to maintain satisfactory growth, indirectly negative for the New Zealand dollar. In addition, the Australian dollar fell against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar fell as well. In the short term, it is worth paying attention to the resistance of 0.6800. If the rebound breaks through the resistance, the downtrend is expected to reverse.

 

USD/CAD

1.3520/1.3540 resistance

1.3460/1.3440 support

Crude Oil prices remained weak, with the indirect negative for the Canadian dollar and the Canadian dollar falling. The US dollar against the Canadian dollar is approaching the 1.3500 mark. At present, the Fed expects that the pace of interest rate hikes will continue to weaken in Canadian dollar. The market is waiting if the US GDP performance will maintain a 3.5% growth, and the US dollar will be bullish. However, it is recommended to pay attention to crude oil price performance.

 

EUR/GBP

0.9040/0.9060 resistance

0.9000/0.8980 support

After the Fed’s monetary policy, the euro was similar to the pound and the trend remained stable. However, the euro zone economy and interest rate outlook is better than the UK, and the euro is higher against the pound. At present, if the euro against the pound falls below 0.9000, the trend may fall further. It is possible to look forward to the important support levels of 0.8970 and 0.8955.

 

EURCHF

1.1335/1.1350 resistance

1.1290/1.1275 support

The European Central Bank plans to end the LTRO program at the end of the year. Compared with the Swiss franc, the euro has performed strongly and the Swiss franc has performed weakly. The euro has a chance to further test resistance against the Swiss franc. Technically, the resistance of 1.1320 has been encountered, and it is recommended to look further. But also must pay attention to trading risks!

 

XAUUSD

1249/1252 resistance

1240/1237 support

The Fed said that the future monetary policy stance will continue to consider raising interest rates, so that the gold trend reversed. However, the US Dow continued to be weak and the gold limited the decline. Technically, gold may be consolidated in the high 1250 resistance range, waiting the results of the US GDP data tomorrow night. The overall expectation of the Fed’s rate hike is maintained, and gold has downside risks.

 

US crude oil futures:

48.20/48.60 resistance

46.25/45.75 support

After the Fed’s monetary policy decision, the impact continued to fluctuate oil prices. Despite the monetary policy outlook, the market is worried that the Fed’s interest rate hike will affect the economy and crude oil demand, and US President Trump expressed concern about rising oil prices and hit oil prices down. At the present, it expected the crude oil price maintain below the resistance of $48.60.

 

BTCUSD:

3985 / 4120 resistance 

3520/ 3425  support 

After the FOMC meeting , the US Fed fund rates will be rise continue. The bitcoin have a chance to go down. But technically, after the bitcoin fell already in the last few weeks and test US3000. If the market has no more bad news in cryptocurrencies, the bitcoin could be rebounds and testthe higer resistance, such US3985 or 4120.

 

Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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