Personal opinions today:

 

On the first trading day after the holiday, the US stock market rebounded strongl, over a thousand points, rose nearly 5%. Financial institutions estimate that US retail sales growth this year is better than the past six years, driving the rise of technology and retail sales in the US stock market. In addition, the market expects that the US House of Representatives will restart the government's fiscal expenditure after the holidays, and the official approval of the funding on Friday, some government departments are expected to reopen. A strong rebound in US stocks, the Nikkei index rebounded nearly 600 points, an increase of nearly 3%, driving the yen and gold fell, while the main non-US currencies fell. In addition, the US retail market performed strongly, driving oil prices to $46, and the highest ever was $47.

 

Before the holiday, the important economic data of the United States has been announced. Today, the market may be concerned about the number of US initial jobless claims, new home sales and consumer confidence. The above data is expected to grow, and the estimated data results will help the US dollar before the announcement. At 5 pm, the European Central Bank issued an economic bulletin, and the market wait and see can bring surprise prediction reports. Tomorrow's crude oil inventory report, the impact on oil prices, deserves attention.

 

Today's suggestion:

 

EURUSD

1.1395/1.1415 resistance

1.1350/1.1335 support

US retail sales are expected to grow, bullish on the US Dow and the dollar to rebound. In addition, the market expects that the US government's financial expenditures will be approved after the holidays, and the US dollar will be indirectly negative for the European currency. Short-term factors, the market estimates that the US released data tonight is higher than the previous value, indirectly negative for the euro.

 

GBPUSD

1.2735/1.2750 resistance

1.2655/1.2640 support

US retail sales are expected to grow, bullish on the US Dow and the dollar to rebound. In addition, the market expects that the US government's financial expenditures will be approved after the holidays, and the US dollar will be indirectly negative for the European currency. Short-term factors, the market estimates that the US released data tonight is higher than the previous value, indirectly negative for the pound. In addition, the risk of Brexit exists in the UK and it is still technically bearish.

 

USDCHF

0.9975/0.9990 resistance

0.9905/0.9880 support

US retail sales are expected to grow, bullish on the US Dow and the dollar. In addition, the market expects that the US government's financial expenditures will be approved after the holidays, and the US dollar will be indirectly negative for the European currency. In addition, the market estimates that the US released data tonight is higher than the previous value, indirectly negative for the Swiss franc. Technically, the Swiss franc continues to follow the pace of the euro.

 

USD/JPY

111.35/111.50 resistance

110.80/110.65 support

US retail sales are expected to grow, bullish on the US Dow, indirectly driving Japan's Nikkei index (JP225) to rebound nearly 600 pips after the market opened, the dollar against the yen rose simultaneously. Next, the market is waiting when the US House of Representatives will allocate funds through fiscal expenditures, stabilize the market or drive the US Dow to rise further. If the stock market is boosted, it will help the dollar rise against the yen.

 

AUDUSD

0.7055/0.7040 support

0.7080/0.7115 resistance

US retail sales are expected to grow, stimulating commodity markets, and the Australian dollar has benefited as a commodity currency. The improvement in economic forecasts is expected to ease the Sino-US trade war and boost the rise in industrial metals such as copper. It is recommended to stay focused on the fundamentals. Technically, if the resistance is 0.7080 and 0.7115, the trend is expected to rise further.

 

NZDUSD

0.6715/0.6700 support

0.6745/0.6760 resistance

The Sino-US trade war has eased. China and the United States have planned to restart the meeting in early Januar, bullish on New Zealand dollar. At present, the market is watching the further development after the holiday, and the New Zealand dollar has a short-term trend. However, under the support of 0.6715 and 0.6700, the preliminary New Zealand dollar has the opportunity to test the resistance of 0.6745/0.6760.

 

USD/CAD

1.3600/1.3620 resistance

1.3560/1.3540 support

US crude oil prices rebounded, indirectly bullish for the Canadian dollar, and the dollar returned to below 1.3600 against the Canadian dollar. The US crude oil inventories will be released tomorrow. If the stocks increase or meet expectations, crude oil prices will have a weaker chance, so the Canadian dollar may further weaken. It is recommended to trade USD/CAD, paying attention to the changes in crude oil price performance and Canadian dollar.

 

EUR/GBP

0.9020/0.9035 resistance

0.8965/0.8940 support

Currently affected by the US market factors, the euro and the pound are similar. From an economic perspective, the euro zone economy and interest rate market outlook is better than the UK's ideal, and the euro is higher against the pound. Technically, the euro is likely to test 0.8940 support against the pound.

 

EURCHF

1.1300/1.1320 resistance

1.1260/1.1240 support

If the euro against the Swiss franc once again broke the 1.1275 support, the trend may fall further and have the opportunity to further test the 1.1240 support.

 

XAUUSD

1273/1276 resistance

1264/1261 support

The US House of Representatives is expected to make financial allocations after the resumption of the holidays, and some governments can resume operations. After the holiday, the US stock market rose sharply last night, causing gold to fall. If the US House of Representatives finally allocates financial expenditures to reduce market risk, it will continue to be short of gold. If the US Dow and global stock markets continue to rise, it must be noted that gold has downside risks.

 

US crude oil futures:

46.60/47.60 resistance

44.75/43.75 support

OPEC will start production cuts next month and financial institutions expect strong US retail sales this year, stimulating demand for crude oil to drive oil prices to rebound. The forthcoming US crude oil inventory report is very important reference, technically expected to test the resistance of 47 dollars. But still must pay attention to the downside risk.

 

BTCUSD:

4200 / 4400 resistance 

3650/ 3450  support 

The US government's fiscal expenditure allocation can not be passed before the Christmas holiday, making the dollar weaker and could positives for the Bitcoin. After the bitcoin adjusted and it's trying to rebound. Now recommend the US3450 is a key support.

 

Enjoy trading!  

The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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