Personal opinions today:

 

In Asian trading yesterday, China announced that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 49.7 in December. In theory, the index was lower than 50, which caused the deterioration of the economic contraction, the Chinese stock market fell, and the Asian stock market and the European stock market fell as well. In the early of the US stock market trading, the US Apple chairman said that the performance warning, the US Dow extended fell by nearly 2%. Global stock markets fell, capital inflows into the yen and gold, pushing up silver prices as well. The current global stock market is weak, global financial market volatility. Moreover, the US government departments have partially stopped operating, and time is out of date. The market investment mentality is prudent and pessimistic. In the current, the investment market is turbulent and it is recommended to pay attention to risks.

 

At present, the focus of the market is to focus on the number of ADP job data and initial jobless claims released by the US tonight. The above two job data may affect the US official non-farm payroll, unemployment rate and average wage results in tomorrow night. Also, the market is expected to announce at 23:00 tonight, the US December Purchasing Managers Index. The market estimates that all data in the US may perform poorly tonight. It is expected that the above data will be negative for the US dollar before the announcement tonight, which is more likely to affect the global stock market decline as well. It is estimated that the currencies of Europe and Asia Pacific will be stabilized in the short term after a sharp adjustment last night, but the yen and gold prices will likely continue to rise.

 

The investment market has just entered the trading cycle of the new year. Fund house and financial institutions are evaluating with the profit and loss of global economic development and budget enterprises in 2019. The investment market is relatively volatile, not stability. Attention should be paid to trading risks and strict stop loss when investing. If the trading position is under profit, it is recommended to set a profit stop loss and lock in profit to prevent market fluctuations.

 

Today's suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1325/1.1305 support

1.1385/1.1405 resistance

In this analysis suggestion yesterday, it is estimated that the euro will remain within the range of 1.1400 to 1.1480 in the short term. Finally, the euro is adjusted by the high resistance level against the US dollar, and finally fell below the 1.14, and the low was 1.1305. The market is concerned about the impact of the Brexit risk on the Eurozone economy in 2019, not only limiting the euro's gains, but also adjusting the euro exchange rate. The euro zone's money supply is higher than expected by 3.8% this afternoon, while the US job data is weak at night, and there will be an opportunity to boost the euro. The initial resistance targets above are 1.1385 and 1.1405. But if the euro falls below 1.1285 against the dollar, the trend may continue to fall.

 

GBPUSD

1.2585/1.2610 resistance

1.2455/1.2430 support

The market continues to pay attention to the risk of Brexit. The UK government and the UK Prime Minister must announce the Brexit plan this month. It is imperative to arrange a Brexit plan in March to avoid economic damage. Otherwise, the British government will be responsible for all the problems after the Bremom risk. Yesterday, this analysis pointed out that the pound had another chance to test the 1.25 level. Tonight, the pound fell further and fell to 1.2430. The Brexit plan is still in progress and the pound is more volatile.

 

USDCHF 

0.9850/0.9825 support

0.9925/0.9950 resistance

Technically, the Swiss Franc continues to follow the pace and direction of the Euro. According to the analysis of yesterday's analysis, the euro did not break through 1.15 against the US dollar. It is estimated that the US dollar against the Swiss franc stopped at 0.9800. On the contrary, the current euro hold the  1.1305 and 1.1285 support, the dollar against the Swiss franc may stop at 0.9950 resistance.

 

USD/JPY

107.75/108.00 resistance

106.80/106.55 support

The market estimates that the US job data and report may be weak in December, and the US government has not yet passed the government budget, which is negative for the US dollar. Coupled with stock market volatility, the yen has become a safe haven and the yen has appreciated. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the recent Japanese holiday, the yen has risen sharply. If the Japanese market resumes tomorrow, triggering the intervention of the Bank of Japan, it may make a large-scale adjustment to the US dollar against the yen. Please pay attention to the investment. At present, please pay attention to the trend of global stock market and how to influence the change of USD/JPY.

 

AUDUSD 

0.6900/0.6875 support

0.6975/0.7000 resistance

Yesterday, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index recorded a contraction and affected the Australian dollar weakening. Coupled with the fall in global stock markets, cross-rate made the market volatility, the Australian dollar fell. However, it is expected that the Sino-US trade war will resume negotiations, the two sides will improve trade relations, re-promote international trade cooperation, and have the opportunity to drive Australia's economic growth. The Australian dollar is expected to be supported. But in any case, this week's US job data release and fund trading changes may bring volatility in the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6580/0.6560 support

0.6665/0.6680 resistance

Yesterday, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index recorded a contraction, and affected the weakening of the Australian dollar, indirectly affecting the New Zealand dollar. Coupled with the fall in global stock markets, cross trade made the market volatility, the New Zealand dollar fell. However, it is expected that the Sino-US trade war will resume negotiations, the two sides will improve trade relations, re-promote international trade cooperation, and have the opportunity to drive economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region. The New Zealand dollar is expected to be supported. But in any case, this week's US job data release and fund trading changes may bring volatility in the NZD against the US dollar.

 

USD/CAD

1.3650/1.3665 resistance

1.3600/1.3585 support

The Sino-US trade war has eased and it is expected to promote the normalization of international trade, which will also bring benefits to the Canadian economy. Economic growth has indirectly boosted the rise in crude oil prices, as well as the Canadian dollar. Technically, the Canadian dollar may still be weak, but the short-term multiple challenges of 1.3665 resistance failed. If there is no negative factor that causes the Canadian dollar to fall, the USD/CAD trend is expected to return to below 1.3600. It is recommended to trade the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, paying attention to the development of oil price performance and the Canadian dollar.

 

EUR/GBP

0.9080/0.9105 resistance

0.9030/0.9005 support

Under the Brexit risk assessment, the euro zone economy and interest rate market outlook is better than the UK, and the euro is expected to rise higher against the pound. Technically, if the euro against the pound can maintain above 0.8965 support, it is estimated that the euro against the pound has a chance to rise.

 

EURCHF

1.1230/1.1245 resistance

1.1200/1.1185 support

The trend of the euro and the Swiss franc followed the performance of the dollar and the trend was similar. The short-term fluctuation of the euro against the Swiss franc, it is recommended to pay attention to the above proposed range of volatility, and pay attention to trading risks.

 

XAUUSD 

1292/1295 resistance

1283/1280 support

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index recorded a contraction. The US corporate profit warning and the US job data were expected to be weak, affecting the decline in global stock markets, rise up in market risk aversion and push up the gold prices. In addition, the US government departments have partially stopped operating, increasing risk aversion and rising investment risks, driving gold to rise. If the US Congress resumes negotiations, the US government will eventually receive government budget, which is believed to be negative for gold. Coupled with progress in Sino-US trade negotiations, it eases risk aversion and believes that if pessimistic sentiment changes, it can cool down the price of gold.

 

US crude oil futures:

47.05/47.55 resistance

45.05/44.55 support

OPEC will start production cuts this month, and the Sino-US trade war is easing. It is expected that the negotiations will have a chance to succeed next week and there will be an opportunity to brew a rebound in oil prices. At present, the technical resistance is expected to be in the range of 47 US dollars. There have been many high-level declines, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of chasing high positions. The market is waiting to see the US APl will announce the results of crude oil inventories on Friday morning, which may affect the price of crude oil.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

23235/23425 resistance

22900/22800 support

The US government departments have partially stopped operating, since the government budget failed. Psychologically affecting the investment climate, and the US Dow may be face the downside risk. However, the current Sino-US trade war has eased, and at the same time it is expected to make a positive progress. The investment sentiment is heating up. It is expected that the US Dow can test the resistance of 23235 and 23425, and further test the key resistance of 24025.

 

BTCUSD:

4000 / 4200 resistance 

3450 / 3250  support 

After the bitcoin correction, the US dollar weaker. The US government departments have partially stopped operating, increasing the market risk. It seems to support the crypto currencies. Now the Bitcoin at US3450 is key support. Under the market risk currently,  the Bitcoin probably test  US4000 or US4200 resistance. Keep watching the range of the momentum, and looking any breakthrough.

 

Enjoy trading!  

The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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