ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market Update - 2019.01.04
Personal opinions today:
Following the fall of China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, the US’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell in December last year, falling to 54.1, down from 59.3 last month, bringing the US economy to contract and the prospects worsening. Last night, the US stock market once fell more than 700 points, closing some of the lost ground, but still closed earlier than the day, down 685 points. The market is watching the increase in the number of US non-farm payrolls tonight. It is expected that the US ADP job data will be strong last night, which is expected to boost the US Dow, and then boost the global stock market and the Asian stock market early next week.
Last night, the US announced that ADP employment in December exceeded 270,000, an increase from the past year, which means that the confidence in business activities is still strong. Unfortunately, the number of initial jobless claims has increased by 10,000 from last week. Probably, tonight the US officially announced the non-farm payroll population rise. But the unemployment rate and average wage results, the market is more concerned about whether the average wage has improved. If the number of ADP increases, it is expected to drive wage increases. The higher increase
, it could become the stronger the US dollar. However, please pay attention to trading risks and avoid over trade.
In this afternoon, the European data is important , included the German job data and Eurozone consumer price index CPl. At 21:30 in the evening, the US job report and Canada job data which are important data for tonight. It is expected that the market will fluctuate today, while the response needs speed up when trading.
* Due to the impact of many heavy data today, market risks have increased more than normal, market conditions have fluctuated, financial institutions and banks' quotations and spreads have changed more than normal, and there may be slippage and delayed quotations.
Please note! It is recommended to avoid trading when the heavy data appears for a moment, and then capture the market conditions and after the data is released, so as not to cause unnecessary losses!
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1445/1.1475 resistance
1.1375/1.1345 support
By technically estimated that the euro will remain within the fluctuation range of 1.1375 to 1.1445 in the short term. The job data both in the Eurozone and the US today. The market is more concerned about the US average wage in December and has the opportunity to generate large market volatility. Therefore, it is expected that the overall volatility of the euro against the US dollar may rise by more than 100 points throughout the day. Technical analysis is more worthy of attention. The euro is facing strong resistance against the US dollar at 1.15, and it is possible to be careful when trading.
GBPUSD
1.2685/1.2715 resistance
1.2575/1.2540 support
As the analysis yesterday, assuming the US data is weak, the US Dow and the US dollar may fall, boosting the pound. At present, GBP/USD has the opportunity to test resistance at 1.2685 or 1.2715 before the Eurozone data for the afternoon and the US job data tonight. But remember that the risk of Brexit has not been lifted, pay attention to the high risk of falling back!
USDCHF
0.9830/0.9805 support
0.9885/0.9905 resistance
Technically, the recent weak US economic data and US dollar assets have caused the euro to rise, indirectly to the Swiss franc. According to recent analysis, if the euro does not break the 1.15 mark against the dollar, it is estimated that the dollar will stop before the 0.9800 support level against the Swiss franc. Currently pay attention to 0.9830 and 0.9805 support.
USD/JPY
108.15/108.40 resistance
107.50/107.25 support
As the analysis pointed out yesterday, the yen will be revised sharply by the end of the Japanese holiday. At present, the market is worried that the yen has risen sharply in recent days, triggering the Bank of Japan policy to correct the yen. Of course, if the global stock market is weak, it will affect the dollar and the yen continue to fall. In response to the US employment report announced tonight, the market may be mixed due to the uneven performance of the US job data, causing market volatility and price reversal. It is recommended to reserve sufficient trading funds and carefully consider trading risks.
AUDUSD
0.6980/0.6965 support
0.7035/0.7055 resistance
The market expects the US official employment data to be weak, coupled with the expected US-China trade war negotiations will achieve results, and improve trade relations, promote international trade cooperation and development, and promote Australia's economic growth, the Australian dollar rebounded at a low level. After the Australian dollar rebounded, the focus on the US job data tonight, which may bring volatility of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.
NZDUSD
0.6580/0.6560 support
0.6665/0.6680 resistance
The market expects the US official employment data to be weak, coupled with the expected US-China trade war negotiations will achieve results, and improve trade relations, promote international trade cooperation, and promote economic growth in Australia and New Zealand, the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar rebounded at a low level. After the rebound of the New Zealand dollar, the focus on the US job data tonight, which may bring fluctuations in the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar.
USD/CAD
1.3585/1.3615 resistance
1.3445/1.3415 support
Recently pointed out that the Sino-US trade war has eased and it is expected to promote the normalization of international trade, which will also bring benefits to the Canadian economy. Economic growth indirectly boosts crude oil prices, which can also benefit the Canadian dollar. The dollar fell yesterday, indirectly boosting the Canadian dollar. The price of crude oil has risen, with a bullish Canadian dollar. Note that the Canadian and US job data released tonight may bring significant fluctuations in the Canadian dollar.
EUR/GBP
0.9060/0.9085 resistance
0.9005/0.8975 support
Under the Brexit risk assessment, the euro zone economy and interest rate market outlook is better than the UK, and the euro is expected to rise higher against the pound. Technically, if the euro against the pound can maintain above 0.8965 support, it is estimated that the euro against the pound has a chance to rise. Currently concerned about the 0.8975 support level.
EURCHF
1.1270/1.1295 resistance
1.1225/1.1205 support
The trend of the euro and the Swiss franc followed the performance of the dollar and the trend was similar. The short-term fluctuation of the euro against the Swiss franc, it is recommended to pay attention to the above proposed range of volatility, and pay attention to trading risks.
XAUUSD
1299/1303 resistance
1283/1280 support
US stock fell and the US job data is expected to be weak, affecting the decline in global stock markets, triggering a rise in market risk aversion and rising gold prices. In addition, the increasing risk aversion and rising investment risks, driving gold to rise. If the US job data did not disappoint the market tonight, the average wage has a increase sharply. It is expected to cool down the gold price. Due to the release of heavy data from the US tonight, the price of gold may fluctuate drastically. Pay attention to trading risks. It is recommended to prepare funds, reduce position coordination and reduce risks!
US crude oil futures:
47.45/47.75 resistance
45.75/45.35 support
OPEC will start production this month. This morning, the US APl crude oil inventories have once again decreased, and the Sino-US trade war is easing. It is expected that next week's negotiations will have a chance to succeed, and there will be an opportunity to brew a rebound in oil prices. After technically looking at the resistance of the $47 range, the test is $48. But the market is watching the US employment report and wage levels, which may affect the price of crude oil at that time.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
23015/23325 resistance
22540/22340 support
The US companies are forecasting pessimistic outlooks, psychologically affecting the investment climate, and the US Dow continues to exert downward. However, the current Sino-US trade war has eased, and at the same time it is expected to make progress, investment sentiment is heating up, and the US Dow is expected to rebound. Technically, in the short term, the United States will announce the number of non-farm payrolls and average wages tonight. Coupled with the prospect of Sino-US trade negotiations, next week will bring good news, the US Dow is expected to test the resistance above, and then further test the key resistance of 24025.
BTCUSD:
4000 / 4200 resistance
3450 / 3250 support
US dollar weaker since the market seems increasing the market risk. It could be positive for the crypto currencies. Now the Bitcoin at US3450 is key support. Under the market risk, the Bitcoin probably test US4000 or US4200 resistance. Keep watching the range of the momentum, and looking any breakthrough.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
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