Personal opinions today:

 

The Sino-US trade ministerial meeting was officially restarted yesterday. The market expects that the two sides will reach a complete truce before the end of the Sino-US trade armistice. Ideally, it can abolish the current US tariff policy on China's trade and promote the dawn of global economic recovery. In addition, the market expects the two countries to strengthen economic cooperation and development, bring market prosperity, and even boost the investment climate. Since the two countries are currently only in the early stages of negotiations, there is no news to stimulate the market. The market is only guided by the possibility that the Fed may slowly raise interest rates. The US dollar weakens and the US dollar index fell below 96 levels. Created a non-US currency, gold and crude oil price rose.

 

This afternoon, Germany announced industrial output, Switzerland announced retail sales, the UK house price index and the euro zone economic sentiment index, industrial prosperity index and consumer confidence index. In the evening, the United States announced the trade account, and at the same time Canada announced the trade account. The market looks at relevant data and brings about relevant currency fluctuations. In addition, it is worth noting that the Bank of Italy announced its balance sheet. If the central bank fails to reduce the size of its debt assets, it may fall against the euro and European currencies, and may also be bullish for gold.

 

Today's suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1485/1.1505 resistance

1.1420/1.1400 support

The comments made by the Fed’s chairman have caused the dollar to continue to fall, causing the euro to rise against the dollar. In the afternoon or evening, the Bank of Italy announced its balance sheet. If the central bank fails to reduce the debt ratio, it may make the current euro fall. Currently concerned about the resistance of 1.1485 and 1.1505, pay attention to the high resistance of the euro to reverse the downside risk.

 

GBPUSD

1.2795/1.2820 resistance

1.2725/1.2700 support

The risk of Brexit has not yet been lifted, and the Brexit draft arrangement will be submitted to the Congress for discussion next Tuesday, although the risk of falling pounds will be temporarily eased. However, the Brexit draft may be vetoed by the National Assembly again. The UK will face a Brexit without agreement, causing confusion in the British government and the market, and the pound may be frustrated. As stated yesterday, if any problem rekindles the Brexit crisis, the pound may fall back at any time. When investing in pounds and related crosses, you must pay attention to risks!

 

USDCHF 

0.9785/0.9770 support

0.9850/0.9865 resistance

The Fed chairman released a slow down of interest rate hike, causing the dollar to fall, indirectly to the Swiss franc. According to technical analysis, the US dollar against the Swiss franc at 0.9790 has repeatedly supported. If the US dollar against the Swiss franc is not broken, it may bring a rebound. It is currently recommended to wait and see the performance of Swiss retail sales data in the afternoon, and pay attention to the Italian central bank's balance sheet situation, and then deploy. It may believe that the short-term Swiss franc will continue to follow the pace of the euro.

 

USDJPY

108.85/109.00 resistance

108.00/107.85 support

The US stock market and the Asia-Pacific stock market performed well, driving the dollar to rise against the yen, and the dollar remained above 108.00 against the yen. If the Sino-US trade negotiations progress and bring results, it will further drive the global stock market to rise, and the USD/JPY will have an opportunity to extend its upward trend. In the short-term technical, the USD/JPY is concerned about 109 resistance and expects a breakthrough.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7165/0.7190 resistance

0.7085/0.7070 support

The Fed chairman hinted at a slow rate hike, which caused the dollar to fall and indirectly boosted the Australian dollar. Coupled with the expectations of Sino-US trade negotiations, Lido Aussie. If the Sino-US meeting has made clear progress and brought results, and the Fed’s attitude continues to slow down, the Australian dollar will have a chance to test 0.72 against the US dollar. Otherwise, we must pay attention to adjustments and be careful to test below 0.71.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6765/0.6785 resistance

0.6710/0.6680 support

The New Zealand dollar followed the Australian dollar against the US dollar and rose above the resistance of the 200-hour moving average of 0.6700. The market expects clear progress in the meeting between China and the United States and supports the rise of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. However, if the Chinese and the US fail to publish the results of the negotiations in the future, the New Zealand dollar is harder to break the resistance of 0.6785 against the US dollar, and may even adjust to 0.6700 or below.

 

USDCAD

1.3260/1.3240 support

1.3345/1.3365 resistance

Saudi plans to reduce crude oil exports and hopes to raise oil prices to $75 to $80 a barrel, increasing national income. The news led the rise in crude oil prices and indirectly pushed up the Canadian dollar. In addition, Canada may consider raising interest rates tomorrow night, bullish on Canadian dollars. But as the Canadian dollar rose, the news has already digested, and there is a need to worry about the risk of the Canadian dollar reversing. Technically, 1.3240 is 85.2% support for adjustment, which is worthy of attention the trend will reverse.

 

EUR/GBP

0.8990/0.9015 resistance

0.8950/0.8925 support

The euro fell against the pound, mainly benefiting from the pound against the dollar rose more than the euro against the dollar. This week, the euro zone announced a number of important economic data, if the euro zone economy is strong, the euro will be expected to rise against the pound. Technically, if the euro can maintain above the 0.8965 support level against the pound, it is estimated that the euro has a chance to rise against the pound.

 

EURCHF 

1.1255/1.1275 resistance

1.1225/1.1205 support

The movement of the euro and the Swiss franc followed the performance of the US dollar, and the trend was similar. Without significant differences, the euro remained in a narrow range against the Swiss franc. Today, Switzerland announced retail sales. This week, the euro zone announced a number of important economic data. If the euro zone economy is strong, the euro will be expected to widen against the Swiss franc, and there will be an opportunity for the euro to rise against the Swiss franc. However, please keep in mind that the data results bring trading risks.

 

XAUUSD 

1292/1295 resistance

1283/1280 support

The Fed chairman released a slow down of interest rate hikes, coupled with the risk of Brexit, the news continues to ferment, risk aversion, and indirectly support gold. At present, we continue to pay attention to the comments of Fed officials during this week. If we continue to make dovish speech, we will have the opportunity to drive up the price of gold. On the other hand, the market is concerned about the resumption of Sino-US trade negotiations. If the Sino-US have good progress, it will help the stock market to rise, which will indirectly lead to a fall in gold. It is currently recommended to refer to resistance from 1292 to 1295. If good news and cools risk aversion, then attention to gold 1280 is an important support.

 

US crude oil futures:

49.05/49.75 resistance

47.75/47.35 support

OPEC began to cut production this month. Yesterday, Saudi  announced that it plans to reduce crude oil exports. In addition, the Sino-US trade war is easing. It is expected that the negotiations will be successful, increase demand for crude oil, and brew oil prices rebound. Technically, the crude oil price support level has moved up to the range of $47. If the crude oil price continues to remain above $47, it is expected to test the resistance at 49.75 again.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

23680/23835 resistance

23240/23130 support

The performance of US corporate is pessimistic. Coming the announcement of the results of US corporate performance in January, psychologically may affect the investment climate. It is estimated that the US Dow still has downward pressure. It is only in the market that the current Sino-US trade war has shown signs of easing. It is expected that the negotiations will make good progress and the investment sentiment will heat up, which will make the US Dow rise. However, technically, if the US Dow fails to test resistance 23835, the Dow has a downside risk.

 

BTCUSD:

4100 / 4200 resistance 

3750 / 3650  support 

The Fed chairman released a slow down of interest rate hikes, US dollar weaker with the market risk. It could be positive for the crypto currencies. The day before the Bitcoin hit US4100 and correction. Technically, the price maybe adjusts to recommend support.

 

Enjoy trading!  

The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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