ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market Update - 2019.01.09
Personal opinions today:
The Sino-US trade consultation lasted for the second day. The US president said that the two sides' consultations are progressing well. The market reached an agreement on Sino-US trade consultations. It is hoped that the two countries will strengthen economic cooperation and development, reduce trade tariffs, etc., and boost the investment climate. The US Dow continued to rise in three trading days, and the Dow rose more than 200 points from the previous day and closed at 23,808. Markets, trade and economic improvements, coupled with Saudi Arabia’s crude oil export reduction plan, have continued to rise in crude oil, and US crude oil prices are approached $50. Under stocks rebounds and boost the investment climate, the price of gold fell back at a high level.
In the afternoon, Germany announced the quarterly trade account and current account in November, followed by Switzerland's December consumer price index (CPl), which deserves attention. In the evening, the euro zone announced the unemployment rate in November. If the unemployment rate falls, it will help the euro rise. The Canadian dollar has risen sharply in recent days, the market expected the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates tonight. If the final rate hike is 0.25% or there is no interest rate hike, it will be a negative for the Canadian dollar.
At 3 am tomorrow, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, the relevant policy meeting minutes, and then Fed’s Chairman spoke. Showing the Fed’s internal monetary policy, the comments may affect the dollar’s movements, which may affect financial market volatility when it is announced and when the chairman speaking.
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1485/1.1505 resistance
1.1425/1.1400 support
Although the Italian central bank announced its balance sheet yesterday and failed to complete the debt reduction ratio, which once affected the euro's decline, the current market is concerned that the Fed's monetary policy may slow down the rate hike. The US president criticized the Fed's monetary policy and may support the euro in the short term. However, the resistance of 1.1485 and 1.1505 is very important. Pay attention to the high resistance of the euro to reverse the downside risk.
GBPUSD
1.2765/1.2790 resistance
1.2705/1.2690 support
On March 29, the UK faces a hard Brexit. The market is ready. It is believed that the Brexit draft will be submitted to the Congress for discussion next Tuesday. The market estimates that the support rate of the MPs is only 18%. It will believe that the risk of falling against the pound cannot be resolved. The UK will face a Brexit without agreement, causing chaos in the UK government and the market. If any of the Brexit crisis is revived, the pound may fall back at any time. When investing in pounds and related crosses, pay attention to risks!
USDCHF
0.9785/0.9770 support
0.9850/0.9865 resistance
The Fed chairman hinted at a slow rate hiken, causing the dollar to fall, indirectly to the Swiss franc. Technical analysis and observations, the US dollar against the Swiss franc at 0.9790, has repeatedly supported, if the dollar against the Swiss franc double bottom, bring a rebound. Coupled with the short-term Swiss franc trend, continue to follow the pace of the euro, the euro fell, indirectly affecting the fall of the Swiss franc.
USD/JPY
109.05/109.30 resistance
108.60/108.35 support
The US stock market and the Asia-Pacific stock market performed well, driving the dollar against the yen to rise, the dollar against the yen to maintain above 108.00, and once challenged 109. If the Sino-US trade consultation progresses further and brings results, it will probably boost the global stock market again, and the USD/JPY will have an opportunity to extend its upward trend. In the short-term technical, USD/JPY is concerned about 109 resistance, expecting a breakthrough and looking forward to resistance at 109.30.
AUDUSD
0.7165/0.7190 resistance
0.7085/0.7070 support
The Fed chairman hinted at a slow rate hike, which caused the dollar to fall and indirectly boosted the Australian dollar. In addition, the initial progress in the Sino-US trade consultation was good, and the Lido dollar. If China and the United States make clear progress, bring economic cooperation results, and the Fed's attitude continues to slow down, the Australian dollar will have a chance to test 0.72 against the US dollar. Otherwise, we must pay attention to adjustments and be careful to test below 0.71.
NZDUSD
0.6765/0.6785 resistance
0.6715/0.6700 support
The New Zealand dollar followed the rise of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, and continued to improve after rising above the resistance of the 200-hour moving average of 0.6700. The market expects that China-US consultations are expected to achieve better progress and support the rise of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. However, if in the future, China and the United States fail to publish their results and boost the investment climate, they believe that the New Zealand dollar has a chance to break through the resistance of 0.6785. Short-term technical attention to 0.6700 important support.
USD/CAD
1.3240/1.3220 support
1.3345/1.3365 resistance
Saudi Arabia plans to reduce crude oil exports, and the news has driven crude oil prices to rise, indirectly pushing up the Canadian dollar. The market expects that the Bank of Canada may consider raising interest rates tonight and is currently bullish for the Canadian dollar. But as the Canadian dollar rises, the news begins to digest and needs to be concerned about the risk of the Canadian dollar reversing. Technically, 1.3240 is 85.2% support for adjustment, which is worthy of attention. If oil prices continue to rise, or the US dollar against the Canadian dollar will have the opportunity to test the 1.31 level.
EUR/GBP
0.9030/0.9055 resistance
0.8980/0.8965 support
This week, the euro zone announced a number of important economic data, the euro zone's economic performance is better than the UK, coupled with the risk of Brexit, the euro is expected to rise against the pound. Technically, if the euro can maintain above the 0.8965 support level against the pound, it is estimated that the euro has a chance to rise against the pound.
EURCHF
1.1255/1.1275 resistance
1.1225/1.1210 support
The movement of the euro and the Swiss franc followed the performance of the US dollar, and the trend was similar. Without significant differences, the euro remained in a narrow range against the Swiss franc. This week, the euro zone announced a number of important economic data, it is estimated that the euro zone economy performance is good, the euro against the Swiss franc will be expected to broaden, there is a chance to bring the euro against the Swiss franc. However, please keep in mind that the data results bring trading risks.
XAUUSD
1290/1293 resistance
1283/1280 support
The Fed chairman likely to suspend interest rate hikes, coupled with the risk of Brexit, the news continues to ferment, risk aversion, and indirectly support gold. At present, we continue to pay attention to the comments of many Fed officials during this week. If they make dovish speech, it will have the opportunity to drive up the price of gold. On the other hand, the market is more concerned about the outcome of Sino-US trade consultations. The US president said that the two sides have made progress in the consultations, and the comments boosted the stock market, which indirectly brought down the gold. It is currently recommended to refer to resistance from 1290 to 1293. If good news cools risk aversion, then attention to gold 1280 is an important support. At present, it is not possible to estimate that gold can be further tested at a lower level. It is recommended to preset 1280 as the first target.
US crude oil futures:
51.05/51.55 resistance
49.70/49.45 support
OPEC began to cut production this month. Saudi Arabian Arabs said it plans to reduce crude oil exports. In addition, the Sino-US trade war is easing. The fed likely to suspend interest rate hike. The market expected a good negotiated between China and the United States, increasing demand for crude oil and spurring crude oil prices to rebound. Technically, the crude oil price will break through the resistance of 49.75, and the upper target will be the resistance of 51.05 and 51.55.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
23835/24235 resistance
23560/23430 support
The Fed is likely to suspend interest rate hikes, which is good for the stock market investment climate. In addition, the current wait-and-see attitude between China and the United States has eased, the two sides negotiated progress, and improved the investment sentiment, causing the US Dow to rise. But technically, the US Dow tried to resistance at 23385. If the Dow breaks the resistance, it will look at 24235.
BTCUSD:
4100 / 4200 resistance
3750 / 3650 support
The Fed chairman released a slow down of interest rate hikes, US dollar weaker with the market risk. It could be positive for the crypto currencies. The day before the Bitcoin hit US4100 and correction. Technically, the price maybe adjusts to recommend support.
Enjoy trading!
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
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