Personal opinions today:

 

The Sino-US trade meeting ended. The Chinese side announced the contents of the consultation and the time for the next meeting today anytime. Now, China and the United States showed that the meeting is progressing well and agreed to increase economic cooperation. The US Dow continued to improve yesterday, and crude oil prices continued to rise. Sino-US trade relations have further improved and have boosted the US dollar. However, in the minutes of the Fed meeting, three of the voting members also said that the US dollar interest rate may slow down or stop raising interest rates, also they mention if the economy slows down, interest rates will have room for interest rate cuts. Let the market is worried about the US economic outlook, the dollar fell.

 

Today, we are concerned about the number of initial jobless claims in the United States. The market expects the number to drop to 220,000 from last week. The market is watching the results. If the number of initial jobless claims falls, it may help to raise the US economic outlook and reduce the possibility of the Fed’s interest rate cuts, which will help the US dollar. Coupled with the market to watch the US consumer price index CPl tomorrow, it is expected that the current dollar decline will ease.

 

Today's suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1565/1.1585 resistance

1.1515/1.1495 support

The Fed’s monetary policy meeting record, Fed officials said it may slow down or stop raising interest rates, boosting the euro. Yesterday, the euro broke the resistance of 1.1485 and 1.1505 respectively against the US dollar, and once tested the resistance at 1.1560. Although the minutes of the Fed meeting on interest rates may indicate that the pace of interest rate hikes may be suspended, they also note that they are concerned about inflation and economic development. It means that the US CPl and the GDP data at the end of the month announced tomorrow will have more important implications. In the short term, we can pay attention to whether the number of initial jobless claims has improved, and it is expected to drive the development of the above data.

 

GBPUSD

1.2810/1.2835 resistance

1.2735/1.2710 support

In the face of the Fed meeting minutes, the dollar fell, boosting the pound. On the other hand, the Brexit draft will be submitted to the Congress for discussion next Tuesday. The market estimates that the support rate of the MPs is only 18%. I believe that the risk of falling pounds cannot be resolved. On March 29, the UK will face no agreement. In Europe, the pound may fall back at any high level. When investing in pounds and related crosses, you must pay attention to risks!

 

USDCHF 

0.9725/0.9700 support

0.9780/0.9805 resistance

The minutes of the Fed Chairman and the minutes of the Fed meeting yesterday showed that the United States will slowly raise interest rates, causing the dollar to fall further and indirectly benefiting the Swiss franc. The dollar against the Swiss franc eventually fell below the 0.9790 most supportive position. At present, the trend of the Swiss franc is similar to that of the euro. If the euro falls in the market, it will indirectly affect the decline of the Swiss franc. The US dollar against the Swiss franc short-term attention to 0.9700 important support.

 

USD/JPY

108.35/108.50 resistance

107.80/107.65 support

The minutes of the Fed meeting show that the US will likely suspend or stop raising interest rates, the dollar will fall, and the dollar will fall against the yen. The Japanese Nikkei index fell this morning, indirectly affecting the dollar against the yen. Technically, look at 107.65 important support for the time being. If the Nikkei rebounds, the short-term target looks at resistance at 108.35 or 108.50.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7175/0.7190 resistance

0.7125/0.7100 support

The minutes of the Fed meeting show that interest rates will slowly raise interest rates or stop, causing the dollar to fall, indirectly boosting the Australian dollar. In addition, the Sino-US trade consultation has made good progress and has been bullish for the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar had a chance to test 0.72 against the US dollar. However, the Sino-US meeting has still not lifted trade tariffs and other discussion topics. The Australian dollar has temporarily adjusted and has the opportunity to test 0.71.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6765/0.6785 resistance

0.6720/0.6700 support

The New Zealand dollar followed the rise of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, and continued to improve after rising above the resistance of the 200-hour moving average of 0.6700. The market expects that China-US consultations are expected to achieve clear progress and support the rise of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. However, the Sino-US meeting have still not lifted trade tariffs and other discussion topics. The New Zealand dollar has temporarily adjusted, and it is believed that the New Zealand dollar will fall below the resistance of 0.6785 against the US dollar. Short-term technical focus on 0.6720 and 0.6700 important support areas.

 

USD/CAD

1.3200/1.3180 support

1.3285/1.3305 resistance

Saudi Arabia plans to reduce crude oil exports, and the news has driven crude oil prices to rise, indirectly pushing up the Canadian dollar. But the Bank of Canada did not raise interest rates last night, and the Canadian dollar reversed the risk. Technically, if the US dollar against the Canadian dollar breaks through the resistance of 1.3240, the US dollar will have a chance to test the 1.33 level against the Canadian dollar.

 

EUR/GBP

0.9055/0.9080 resistance

0.9000/0.8980 support

The euro zone has released a number of important economic data, and the economic performance and conditions of the euro zone are better than the UK, and the risk of Brexit is rising. It is expected that the euro will rise against the pound. Yesterday's analysis expects that the technically EUR/GBP can maintain above the 0.8965 support level, and it is estimated that the euro has a chance to rise against the pound. The euro has further broken above 0.90 against the pound, and it is estimated that it may test 0.9055 or 0.9080. However, it must be noted whether the euro will fall against the dollar and affect the euro against the pound.

 

EURCHF 

1.1265/1.1285 resistance

1.1225/1.1210 support

The momentum of the euro and the Swiss franc followed the performance of the US dollar, and the trend was similar, keeping the euro against the Swiss franc in a narrow range. This week, the euro zone announced a number of important economic data, it is estimated that the euro zone economy performance is good, the euro against the Swiss franc will be expected to broaden, there is a chance to bring the euro against the Swiss franc. However, please keep in mind that the results of the data will cause the euro to fluctuate against the Swiss franc, paying attention to trading risks.

 

XAUUSD 

1295/1297 resistance

1283/1280 support

The minutes of the Fed meeting show that the Fed is considering the slow of interest rate increase, coupled with the risk of Brexit, the partial suspension of the US government and other factors, the risk aversion sentiment, indirectly boosting gold. Continued dovish remarks, the United States does not have good data to support the dollar rebound, there will be an opportunity to drive up the price of gold. Close attention to the number of US initial jobless claims tonight and the US CPl tomorrow. In addition, it is more important to pay attention to when China and the United States will issue a formal conclusion and the next meeting schedule. It is estimated that the positive evaluation and development of Sino-US trade may cool down the price of gold.

 

US crude oil futures:

52.45/53.00 resistance

50.70/50.45 support

OPEC began to cut production this month. Saudi Arabian Arabs said it plans to reduce crude oil exports. In addition, the Sino-US trade war is easing. The market has successfully negotiated between China and the United States, and increased demand for crude oil has already reflected the rebound in crude oil prices. The minutes of the Fed meeting last night made the crude oil price further break through the resistance of 51.55. However, technically, the crude oil price of $53 may have resistance, and the trend will be reversed in the short term.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

23835/24135 resistance

23560/23430 support

The Fed is likely to suspend interest rate hikes, which is good for the stock market investment climate. However, the market waits for the content of Sino-US trade consultations and the time of the next meeting, and the stock market is adjusted. If the content of the consultations between China and the United States is positive today, it may boost the stock market. Technically, it is possible to test the resistance.

 

BTCUSD:

4100 / 4200 resistance 

3850 / 3750  support 

The FOMC released a slow down or stop rate hikes signal, US dollar weaker. It could be positive for the crypto currencies. Technically, the price maybe testing US4100 resistance again.

 

Enjoy trading!  

The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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