The Sino-US trade negotiations will be held as scheduled next week. At present, the progress of the negotiations is still satisfactory. It is expected that the trade agreement is expected to be completed smoothly. 

 

The European economic risks brought about by Brexit and the Sino-US trade war are expected to be resolved, and investment sentiment is expected to improve. The global stock markets are expected to look better, but it will affect the price of gold and also declined of the yen. If the outlook for the global economy improves, it will help the price of crude oil rise. In the foreign exchange market, the European currency is expected to bottom out. The situation is similar to the recent trend of the pound. If the Sino-US trade negotiations are successful at the end of the month, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar and other commodity currencies are expected to resume their upward trend.

 

Today's suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1335/1.1355 resistance

1.1290/1.1275 support

Last night, the European Central Bank announced the results of the interest rate meeting, interest rates and monetary policy remain unchanged. In the press conference after the meeting, the ECB president said that the future monetary policy orientation is still cautious, and the content maintains dovish remarks, which once caused the euro to fall against the dollar. However, it can be noted that the central bank governor's position is mainly aimed at British tradeism (US trade with Europe and China). In addition, the Brexit is uncertain about the European economy. It can be seen from this that if the Sino-US trade negotiations progress in the next week, the draft of the Brexit submitted by the British Prime Minister will be supported, and the concerns of the European Central Bank will be resolved.

 

GBPUSD

1.3135/1.3155 resistance

1.3065/1.3045 support

The pound hit 1.3015 last night and then rebounded. The most important reason for the rebound of the pound is that the market expects the British Prime Minister to submit a new draft of the Brexit to the British parliamentarians for discussion, which is expected to extend the Brexit deadline. Moreover, the German Chancellor and European Parliament officials have expressed their willingness to cooperate with the United Kingdom to extend the deadline, to avoid the British hard Brexit, and to boost the pound. In addition, this morning, the Irish leader said that they would consider supporting the new plan of the British Prime Minister next week, further boosting the pound to 1.31. Technically, pay attention to the GBP short term adjustment risk, but in the long run, positive news may help further boost the pound, the target has the opportunity to reach the important level of 1.3250 or 1.33.

 

USDCHF 

0.9965/0.9985 resistance

0.9925/0.9900 support

The United Kingdom avoided hard Brexit and boosted European currencies, and the Swiss franc accepted the benefits. The European Central Bank’s interest rate and monetary policy are relatively mild and have not affected the Swiss franc. Technically, it is estimated that the US dollar against the Swiss franc will remain in the 0.99 range. If the euro rises further, the dollar will break through 0.9900 support against the Swiss franc.

 

USD/JPY

109.85/110.05 resistance

109.25/109.05 support

The US Dow and the Nikkei Index in a narrow range, which has also led to a narrowing of the dollar-yen volatility. From another perspective, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged and the current quantitative easing monetary policy will continue. The policy has kept the yen at risk of falling. Technically, as long as the USD/JPY will have a chance to maintain above 109.30. If the market risk continues to cool, the stock market will rise, and the USD/JPY is expected to test 110.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7115/0.7130 resistance

0.7075/0.7050 support

Due to the fall in copper prices and industrial metal prices yesterday, the performance of the Australian dollar was affected. The Australian dollar lost 0.7145 support. But looking back at Australia's job data improved last month, the unemployment rate fell. In addition, China-US trade negotiations are expected to make progress next week, and the Australian dollar still has a chance to move up. Technically, an estimated 0.7050 is an important support, while 0.7145 is an important resistance. When investing, it is recommended to carefully observe the trend of industrial metal prices, in addition to Sino-US relations and the situation. Or the performance of China's RMB exchange rate can also be referenced.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6775/0.6805 resistance

0.6745/0.6725 support

The New Zealand dollar was affected by the Australian dollar, and the market digested the good news of New Zealand's economic data. It lacked the upward momentum and returned to the 200-hour moving average. The technical short-term adjustment wave 61.8% support is 0.6745, followed by 0.6705 for important support. If the Australian dollar rebounds, the New Zealand dollar will have the opportunity to return to the first resistance of 0.6775.

 

USD/CAD

1.3365/1.3385 resistance

1.3325/1.3300 support

The current technical extension extends to 1.3365 resistance. If the crude oil price breaks through the $55 resistance, there will be a chance to pull the dollar against the Canadian dollar to 1.3235 or 1.3215. It is recommended to observe the development of crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar. In addition, if the Sino-US trade negotiations are expected to progress, and there is an opportunity to benefit the Canadian dollar. Please pay close attention.

 

EUR/GBP

0.8705/0.8720 resistance

0.8620/0.8605 support

There is good news in the Bdollar. The British Prime Minister is expected to receive Irish support, and the European Parliament has indicated that it will give time to the Brexit, ease market tensions and boost the pound. On the contrary, the Eurozone data is weak, the ECB president said that the doctrine of monetary policy, the bearish euro, the euro continued to fall against the pound. However, the important news that most markets are most concerned about has ended. If the euro rises steadily and the exchange rate of the pound rises, the euro is expected to rebound against the pound.

 

EURCHF 

1.1275/1.1295 resistance

1.1250/1.1235 support

Affected by the comments of the ECB president, the euro fell to 1.13. The euro fell against the Swiss franc and fell below 1.13. Technically, if the euro ends its decline against the dollar and rebounds, the euro has a chance to regain the 1.13 level against the Swiss franc.

 

XAUUSD 

1285/1288 resistance

1277/1274 support

The price of gold remains at $1,277. As the risk of hard Brexit in the UK cools down, the Sino-US trade talks will resume again next week. The performance of US companies is in line with market expectations, which reduces the risk of falling in the US stock market and Asian stock markets. It is estimated that there is downward pressure on gold prices. Technically, the current technical key technical position is $1,277, but if this support level is broken, it is expected to test the bottom. The first target is $1,274 and the next target is $1,266.

 

US crude oil futures:

53.95/54.30 resistance

52.30/51.95 support

Recently, US crude oil inventories rose sharply, causing crude oil prices to fall. The market estimates that crude oil prices may limit the increase to $55. If technically, the resistance of 54.30 will fail again, and there will be another chance to adjust the decline. attention please.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

24630/24700 resistance

24370/24250 support

At present, China and the United States are awaiting negotiations, and it is expected that the performance of US companies will support the rise of the US Dow. However, it must be noted that when the results of individual US companies are announced, there is a large fluctuation in the stock market, and it is recommended to be careful about trading.

 

BTCUSD:

3470 / 3380  support

3750 / 3950 resistance 

Under the Fed monetary policy forecasts and the cryptocurrencies market. If the US Dow index keeping up, which is negative for the crypto market. If the Dow go down, it maybe support the crypto currencies rebound. Technically, the bitcoin price will testing the support at US3470. If the crypto currencies demand increased which support the price of bitcoin rebound, the first target maybe set at US3750.

 

Enjoy trading!  

The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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