Personal opinions today
The partial suspension of the US government, which has plagued the United States for some time, is expected to be resolved because the Labour Party and the Democratic Party are expected to reach a Mexican border fence agreement. If the US President finally passes the bill, it is expected that the appropriation bill will be signed tonight as soon as possible in Beijing time. The US government can obtain funds to prevent the crisis again. The news stimulated the US Dow to rebound, breaking through the high of 25,436 points created on February 6. The US Dow captained and drove the European stock market and Japan's Nikkei index to rise. USD/JPY continued to improve at 110, crude oil prices were supported, but gold and silver prices fell.
In addition, the British government intends to resolve the Brexit issue and avoid the British economy in trouble. The British Prime Minister said that she plans to resolve the draft Brexit as soon as possible, and the pound rebounded. The news helped the euro and the Swiss franc rebounded as well. However, because it is only a speech, it is estimated that the stimulus is limited. The market will pay attention to the performance of UK inflation data this afternoon.
This morning, the New Zealand Federal Reserve Bank remained the interest rate unchanged, and the monetary policy indicated that the interest rate hike was postponed. It is expected to be 2021. As the market pessimism has long been reflected before the announcement. Also, the Sino-US trade negotiations is coming. This facto is positive, has indirectly stimulated the New Zealand dollar to rebound by more than 100 points . Other focus of the market include the UK Consumer Price Index and the retail price index. The US consumer price index and real income. Tomorrow morning at 3:00, the US government budget also important.
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1355/1.1375 resistance
1.1305/1.1285 support
The British pound rebounds and the euro following. If the UK inflation data is weaker than expected in the afternoon, and the US inflation data is better than expected, the euro has the opportunity to go down. For reference, the Eurozone GDP performance also important. Technically, the euro rebounded from a low level, calculating a rebound rate of 38.2%, with a first target of 1.1355. If the test fails, it will test the support below are 1.1305 or 1.1285 respectively, depending on the influence of the performance of the UK and US data today.
GBPUSD
1.2910/1.2935 resistance
1.2855/1.2835 support
The Governor of the Bank of England continued to express pessimistic economic forecasts and monetary policy stances, affecting the sentiment of the pound. However, the British Prime Minister expressed her positive speech about the Brexit Agreement and stimulated the rebound of the pound. The rebound in the pound is limited and it is related to the effectiveness of the British Prime Minister’s comments. The market expects UK inflation to fall. Coupled with the expected rise in US inflation data, the main reason for the weak rebound in the pound. Technically, if fail to break 1.2910 or 1.2935 resistance with the impact of bad economic data, the pound against the dollar has the opportunity to test the 1.2850 or 1.2835 support.
USDCHF
1.0090/1.0120 resistance
1.0045/1.0015 support
The British Prime Minister’s speech has stimulated the rise of the European currency, but the economic outlook has still not improved. The Swiss franc will be continue to be negative. In addition, US inflation data is forecast to rise, which is positive for the US dollar, negative to the Swiss franc. Technically, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is expected to eventually consolidate within the resistance range of 1.0090 or 1.0120. If adjusted, just following the technical support.
USDJPY
110.75/110.95 resistance
110.35/110.15 support
The US government is expected to receive funding to prevent the government from temporarily shutting down again. The US Dow rebounds and safe-haven funds are flowing out of the yen. In addition, Sino-US trade negotiations will be held, and the Japanese stock market will rise, driving the dollar against the yen to remain strong. Technically, the USDJPY has a chance to test 110.95, but it is necessary to take a closer look at whether the market has more good news to stimulate the global stock market to rise. Conversely, the USD/JPY trend is likely to reverse, falling back to 110.35 or 110.15 support.
AUDUSD
0.7135/0.7155 resistance
0.7075/0.7050 support
The US government is expected to receive funding to prevent the government from temporarily shutting down and stimulating the investment climate. In addition, the market is expected to make progress on Sino-US trade negotiations on Thursday, positive for the Australian dollar. As recently analyzed, it is expected that the adjustment of the Australian dollar against the US dollar is completed, to avoid falling below the 0.7020 support risk, and if there is good news, it will break through the resistance of 0.7135. At the moment, pay close attention to the Australian dollar to break through the resistance, and then try the 0.72 level, but please pay attention to short-term risks and fluctuations!
NZDUSD
0.6840/0.6855 resistance
0.6805/0.6790 support
In the morning, the New Zealand Federal Reserve Bank announced the interest rate decision. The monetary policy did not show a pessimistic stance. It only indicated that the interest rate hike was delayed. The relevant position changed the recent downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar and rebounded strongly. The Sino-US trade negotiations were held on Thursday. The current atmosphere is good, supporting the the New Zealand dollar. As recently pointed out, the resistance of 0.6805 is very important. If the resistance is breakthrough, it will represent an improvement in the market sentiment. If Sino-US trade relations continue to improve, the New Zealand dollar still has room to rise against the US dollar. A conservative estimate is that the initial resistance is 0.6855.
USDCAD
1.3325/1.3340 resistance
1.3265/1.3250 support
The United States government maybe avoid a lockout. In addition, crude oil inventories have decreased, crude oil prices have rebounded, and the US dollar level has risen, stimulating the Canadian dollar. In addition, if the Sino-US trade negotiations progress and stimulate demand for crude oil demand, it can also stimulate the Canadian dollar to rise further. Closely watching the performance of US inflation data tonight, if it better than the expectations, it means that the demand for crude oil is expected to increase, which will positive the Canadian dollar.
EURGBP
0.8805/0.8820 resistance
0.8755/0.8740 support
There are still uncertainties in the risk of Brexit, affecting the performance of the British pound. The UK's fourth-quarter GDP GDP data was weak. The UK released inflation data this afternoon. The market continues to wait and see, and the pound has downside risks. The opportunity to raise the euro against the pound. Yesterday pointed out that technically, 0.8780 is the first important resistance reference, while the next level of resistance is 0.8805 and 0.8820.
EURCHF
1.1405/1.1420 resistance
1.1380/1.1365 support
Stimulated by the British Prime Minister’s remarks, the euro benefited. The euro is stronger than the Swiss franc. In the end, the EURCHF rose. Technically concerned about the resistance of 1.1405 or 1.1420, if there is an adjustment, the first support target is 1.1380 or 1.1365.
XAUUSD
1314/1316 resistance
1307/1305 support
The good news from the US ggovernment. Last night, the US Dow and European stock markets rose, gold and silver prices adjusted. It is expected that good news will stimulate the pushup the global stock markets, and there is a downside risk for gold and silver prices. Technically, $1,305 is still the first important support. If the global stock market declines, the gold price will have a chance to rise further, and test the resistance zone of 1314/1316.
US crude oil futures:
54.10/54.50 resistance
53.05/52.65 support
Yesterday, this analysis pointed out that short-term factors include the amount of crude oil inventories and the outcome of Sino-US trade and trade negotiations. If the two sides bring positive results, the crude oil price will have a chance to rebound, and the test will be $54. In the end, the two major forecasts reached positive expectations, and crude oil prices once touched $54. If US inflation data beats expectations tonight, the US President officially signs the appropriation bill, which is expected to push up crude oil prices. If the Sino-US trade negotiations progress, it is expected to further boost crude oil prices.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
25680/25735 resistance
25380/25250 support
The market looks forward to the meeting and negotiation between China and the United States. It is believed that the further development of the relationship between the two sides will help improve the investment climate. However, during the negotiations, the stock market trended repeatedly, paying attention to the ups and downs of the US Dow. Technically, if the Dow falls below 25250 support, the trend may further expand the decline. Pay attention to the adjustment of the next level of important support is still 24,750.
BTCUSD:
3480 / 3280 support
3750 / 3950 resistance
If the demand increase and the dollar depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin, it could test the first resistance US3750.
Enjoy trading!
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
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