ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market Update - 2019.02.21
Personal opinions today
The Fed minutes shown that Fed officials could not predict the Fed’s rate hike this year, but the pace of interest rate hikes will change the monetary policy strategy at any time depending on the economy growth and inflation. Since the Fed’s minutes did not indicate that the Fed completely stopped raising interest rates this year, the US dollar rose from below after the Fed’s meeting minutes were announced. The market is waiting the Asian time tonight, the US announced the number of initial jobless claims, durable goods orders and the US manufacturing and service purchasing managers index. Before the European market closed, US existing home sales data also pay attention. If the US economic performance is better than market expectations, it may help the US dollar index to expand.
In the global stock market and commodity market, investors believe that the US Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates in the first quarter or the first half of this year because the Fed has not indicated the pace of interest rate hikes. The Dow investment sentiment is still good, and the Asian stock market has benefited from the Dow. In addition, the next round of high-level Sino-US trade talks will be held in Washington, DC this week. It is expected that global stock markets will continue to rise if no bad news. It is estimated that the price of crude oil is expected to be supported by the basic factors, maintaining a development of more than 55 US dollars, and looking at high resistance. However, the price of gold will have an opportunity to adjust and try to lower the price.
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1360/1.1375 resistance
1.1315/1.1300 support
In the afternoon of Asian time, the euro zone Germany and France announced the consumer price index, and the market waited for the German consumer price index to grow, boosting the euro. In addition, French and German manufacturing purchasing managers are also watching. At night, a number of important US data are equally important. Technically, the euro has tried the high resistance and the trend is good. However, many economic and political issues in the Eurozone believe that the upside may be limited, paying attention to the euro's adjustment of risk at a high level. If the 1.1315 and 1.1300 support levels fail, the euro has a chance to test 1.1270 or 1.1250.
GBPUSD
1.3075/1.3100 resistance
1.3020/1.2995 support
A number of Fed officials suggested that the Fed stop raising interest rates and the dollar fell. The news boosted the pound. However, the European Commission has indicated that it does not agree to the revision of the Brexit Act. In addition, the British Parliament official said that the vote to leave the European Union next week will be vetoed. The market rating agency Fitch said it will lower the UK rating. There are many uncertainties in the UK and the trend may go down at any time. If the GBP/USD may reverse and there will be a chance to return to the 1.28 level. The current important resistance can be referred to 1.3100.
USDCHF
0.9995/0.9980 support
1.0035/1.0050 resistance
The Swiss franc trend followed the euro and the dollar fell against the Swiss franc. Technically, the US dollar has been consolidated against the Swiss franc in the 1.0095 or 1.0120 resistance range. Adjusted the wave by 73.6%. It is estimated that after falling below the 1.0015 support level, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is expected to test 0.9990/0.9970 support, but must pay attention to the development of the euro. If the US data is good tonight, it may be a negative for the Swiss franc.
USDJPY
110.90/111.15 resistance
110.65/110.50 support
The Fed’s monetary policy did not affect the dollar, and the dollar remained stable against the yen. In addition, the market expected this week's China-US trade consultation meeting, expecting the negotiations to bring further results, the market investment atmosphere is strong. If the US Dow and the Japanese stock market Nikkei are improving, the USD/JPY has limited room for decline. If the Asian stock market performs strongly during the day, it is estimated that the USD/JPY will have the opportunity to continue to test the 111 level. Technically, USD/JPY is focused on 110.50 as important support.
AUDUSD
0.7215/0.7235 resistance
0.7160/0.7140 support
A few days ago, the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes, the Australian dollar may be under pressure. However, the Fed’s monetary policy and the Australian employment population increased more than market expectations, boosting the Australian dollar. In addition, the market expects China-US trade consultation this week and looks forward to further results. If the price of industrial goods rises, it will probably further boost the Australian dollar. It is recommended to pay close attention to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations. But the results of the US economic data at night can not be ignored, which may make the Australian dollar adjust against the US dollar.
NZDUSD
0.6905/0.6925 resistance
0.6860/0.6840 support
The market is waiting for the next round of China-US meetings in Washington this week. The investment sentiment is expected to support the continued growth of the New Zealand dollar. However, the performance of the Australian dollar against the US dollar often indirectly affects the short-term fluctuation of the New Zealand dollar, which is worthy of reference In addition, it is recommended to pay close attention to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the performance of US economic data at night.
USDCAD
1.3185/1.3205 resistance
1.3155/1.3130 support
The minutes of the Fed and crude oil rise, supported the Canadian dollar. Technically, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is expected to test 1.3195 as an important support level, and the trend is expected to continue to test the low position. However, it is recommended to pay attention to crude oil prices and US economic data performance.
EUR/GBP
0.8720/0.8735 resistance
0.8675/0.8660 support
The British pound is likely to turn bad. Beware of the fall of the pound and the rise of the euro against the pound. Technically, the euro is expected to be supported at 0.86 against the pound, with resistance at 0.8720 and 0.8735. The main concern is the result of the British Prime Minister’s discussion with the European Commission.
EURCHF
1.1370/1.1390 ​​resistance
1.1340/1.1330 support
Many bad data and news, the euro's performance was still weaker than the Swiss franc, and the euro against the Swiss franc continued to develop. Technically, if the EUR/CHF stays above 1.1330 and 1.1315, the EUR/CHF has the opportunity to test the resistance at 1.1370 and higher. Looking at German economic data today, the data may affect the euro and affect the adjustment of the euro against the Swiss franc.
XAUUSD
1343/1346 resistance
1336/1333 support
The influence of the Fed’s official dovish speech, the monetary policy stance of the pigeons, caused the price of gold to rise. The Fed’s monetary policy record was announced and the policy content continued to be a bit of a pigeon. I believe that the gold price still has a chance to remain high for a while. If the US economic data performance is stronger, the gold price trend may be reversed. It is currently estimated that 1350 and 1353 US dollars are important resistance to gold prices. If it breaks, it is expected to go up to $1,362. Conversely, if the price of gold falls, pay attention to the 1333 support.
US crude oil futures:
57.50/57.85 resistance
56.65/56.05 support
The results of the Sino-US trade talk and the Fed’s dovish policy have once again boosted crude oil prices. The OPEC oil group said it will continue to cut production next month and expects the Sino-US consultation to make another progress this week to support the better crude oil price. However, technical attention must be paid to adjusting the risk. If the price of crude oil falls below $56, the trend may continue downward.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
26050/26125 resistance
25780/25660 support
A new round of trade talks between the United States and China begins in Washington, this week. In addition, the Fed meeting minutes remain on the sidelines, failing to determine the pace of interest rate hikes, boosting the investment climate, and the US and global stock markets are doing well. Before the China-US trade talk, seems supported the stock market. However, it is necessary to pay attention to fluctuations and adjustments. Technically, special attention is paid to the resistance of 26050 and 26125. If the test fails, be careful to reverse the trend.
BTCUSD:
3780 / 3580 support
3950 / 4100 resistance
US Federal Reserve official said that if the US economy performs as expected, it is not necessary to raise interest rates during the year,the market expected the Fed is considering to stop interest rate hikes this year. The commentary is increasing the cryptocurrency market demand and now the dollar depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin. The first resistance at US3750 breakthrough, then the next target will be 3950 and next is 4100.
Enjoy trading!
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
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2019-02-21 18:00