Personal opinions today

 

Last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made a statement about the US semi-annual monetary policy report, which involved the Fed's enlightenment on the future economic outlook and interest rate policy. Powell said that the US economy still maintains a slight growth and inflation is moderate, but there are hidden concerns about future economic development. The monetary policy remains prudent and will maintain the current interest rate level in certain short time. The speech expressed that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the short term. As far as investors and history are concerned, in general, unless the US economy grows in the first quarter so fast, the Fed generally will considers to rise the interest rate after the second half of the year. The plan to schedule a rate hike may be planned as soon as possible at the Fed meeting on interest rates in April.

 

At present, the market estimates that if the United States does not have strong economic growth, the dollar trend will likely remain flat, and it is possible to continue the short-term downward trend. If the Brexit deadline and arrangements change, it will affect the dollar. In addition, the United States will release its fourth quarter GDP and personal consumption expenditure in February, tomorrow evening. These two important data are expected to fall in the market compared to the previous value. Assuming that before the data results are announced, the US dollar trend is difficult to strengthen significantly.

 

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD 

1.1405/1.1420 resistance

1.1340/1.1325 support

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made a statement on the US semi-annual monetary policy report, which indirectly boosted the euro. However, the future trend of the euro will still be reflected in the economic data of the euro zone, which will affect the performance of the euro. Today, the market is concerned about the Eurozone economy, such as the Industrial Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. If any data performance bad, it may cause the euro bearish. Technically, the euro broke through the 1.1375 resistance against the US dollar and then rebounded 61.8%, 1.1405. If the euro zone's economic data is weak, the euro may pull back against the dollar, with initial targets of 1.1340 and 1.1325 support.

 

GBPUSD

1.3260/1.3285 resistance

1.3215/1.3195 support

A new draft of the Brexit draft will be delayed until March 12. The British Prime Minister can try to revise the draft for a longer period of time. In the meantime, she can try to extend the Brexit time and avoid the risk of "hard Brexit". In addition, Fed Chairman Powell made a statement on the US semi-annual monetary policy report, which did not indicate the pace of interest rate hikes and indirectly boosted the pound. Technically, the pound has broken number of resistances, but if it is not above 1.3262 in the short term, the pound may be reversed. There is an opportunity to call back to 1.3215 or 1.3175.

 

USDCHF 

0.9985/0.9965 support

1.0035/1.0050 resistance

The Swiss franc continues to follow the trend of the euro. Currently, the US dollar is trading between 1.00 and the Swiss franc. Technically, the US dollar continues to hold 0.9985 support against the Swiss franc. If the euro is weak, the USDCHF may test resistance at 1.0035 or 1.0050.

 

USDJPY

110.85/111.05 resistance

110.50/110.35 support

The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board maintained the dovish remarks, saying that there was no schedule to raise interest rates and had been negative for the dollar against the yen. However, from the fundamentals, the US President Trump intends to conduct a high-level China-US summit, further study and resolve between China-US trade agreements, so that the investment climate will continue to heat up. If the US Dow and the Japanese stock market Nikkei are generally well established, the dollar has limited room for a fall. The USD/JPY is expected to test the 111 level. Technically, USDJPY is still focusing on 110.50 important support in the short term.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7205/0.7230 resistance

0.7165/0.7140 support

Sino-US trade consultations have made progress and support the price of industrial metal and commodities to keep rising, the Australian dollar is bullish. At present, we will pay close attention to whether the progress of the next round of the China-US Summit before the weekend can be successfully held. At the same time, the AUDUSD can refer to the offshore China RMB and industrial metal price performance as a reference for the Australian dollar against the US dollar. In the short term, you must pay attention to the risk of callback!

 

NZDUSD 

0.6915/0.6935 resistance

0.6870/0.6850 support

The New Zealand dollar-related currencies, the Australian dollar and the China renminbi, performed well, indirectly supporting the rise of the New Zealand dollar. However, technically, the New Zealand dollar still failed to break through the resistance of 0.6900 and 0.6915, and must pay attention to the risk of callback in the short term.

 

USDCAD

1.3185/1.3205 resistance

1.3140/1.3125 support

The Fed’s monetary policy orientation once again supports the expectation of rising crude oil demand. Moreover, US crude oil inventories fell sharply, boosting crude oil prices. In fact, it also boosted the Canadian dollar. Technically, it is recommended to keep an eye on the performance of crude oil prices when trading in Canadian dollars. Tonight, Canada released consumer price index data, which is very important and may be one of the excuses to boost the Canadian dollar.

 

EURGBP

0.8615/0.8630 resistance

0.8575/0.8560 support

The Brexit vote is expected to be postponed, and the Brexit deadline is expected to be pushed to a limit. After the British pound rebounded, the euro fell against the pound. Technically, the euro broke the 0.8605 support against the pound, and the trend may continue downward. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the expiration date will be extended as expected by the market, and the pound will be boosted again, making the possibility of further decline of the EURGBP.

 

EURCHF 

1.1390/1.1415 resistance

1.1370/1.1355 support

The Brexit deadline may be postponed and good news for the euro as well. Yesterday, it was expected that if the euro remained above 1.1330 and 1.1315 for the Swiss franc, the euro would have a chance to test the 1.1370 resistance against the Swiss franc. Looking forward to this week's important economic data reference released by the euro zone, the data may continue to affect the performance of the euro, while affecting the fluctuation of the EURCHF.

 

XAUUSD 

1331/1333 resistance

1323/1321 support

The US-DPRK summit will bring peace, and the China-US summit is expected to drive economic momentum. Both may be negative for gold prices. It is recommended to note that the price of gold may be lowered. Technically, the gold price is at $1,333 as an important resistance reference. If the US-DPRK meeting can bring about a denuclearization process, the next round of the China-US Summit, coupled with the successful extension of the Brexit deadline, the gold price is expected to test the important support level of 1321, and even try the support of 1315 and 1311 dollars.

 

US crude oil futures:

56.35/56.75 resistance

55.45/55.05 support

The Federal Reserve Chairman remarked and kept the Fed’s loose monetary policy orientation. US crude oil inventories have decreased, and these factors have boosted crude oil prices. And the OPEC oil group is expected to continue to cut production next month, and these factors bullish on the price of crude oil. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to adjusting risks. The price of crude oil at US$55 is one of the new important support points, which deserves attention.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

26160/26245 resistance

26960/25870 support

The US-DPRK summit is expected to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula. Sino-US trade consultations are progressing. The US president has extended the deadline to increase import tariffs, and the market is looking forward to the next round of the China-US summit. In addition, the Fed meeting minutes remained slack, and there was no determination to raise interest rates, which would help boost the investment climate and hope to bullish the stock market. Before the US Dow Jones Industrial Index futures break through the resistance of 26245, we must pay attention to the possibility of stock market correction.

 

BTCUSD:

3680  / 3480 support

3950 / 4100 resistance 

The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made a statement, report the US semi-annual monetary policy. This may involve the economic outlook and interest rate policy. The price of bitcoin stay back a bit. Now assumed the Fed is considering to stop interest rate hikes this first half year. It could be increasing the cryptocurrency market demand sharply. If the dollar have a chance to depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin and looking the next target 3950 and 4100.

 

Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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