Personal opinions today

 

The US job data released this week directly affects the US economic outlook and inflation forecasts, and it is about Fed's monetary policy orientation. In the short term, the relevant data will become the focus of the global financial market, causing fluctuations in the market. First, the market is watching the US ADP and the US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate released in February on this Friday, which are affecting the market and deserve attention. The US ADP announced on Wednesday is generally regarded as an important indicator of private enterprise sentiment, which is more important than the non-farm payroll announced by the US Department of Labor. At present, investors expect that the US ADP in February may increase from 210,000 in the previous month, and the target is raised to 220K to 230K. It is a positive expectation for the US economic outlook and will bullish the US dollar.

 

In addition, the average hourly wage announced by the US after the non-farm payrolls on Friday is also more important than the number of non-farm payrolls. If the data shows an increase, it will reflect the growth of US consumer spending, inflation expectations, and bullish the US dollar index. It seems that last Friday, the United States announced that its GDP growth in the fourth quarter was higher than market expectations. The Dollar Index rebounded from a low level. With the expectation of US job data this week, the Dollar Index maintained its upward trend and once seen a high of 96.53. If there is no other negative news affecting the US dollar at the beginning of this week, look forward to the US dollar index rising momentum by reference to the adjustment wave of 50% to 96.15 as a support point, and then look at 96.75 and 97.05. If the dollar is good, the dollar may fall against major currencies and gold prices. But crude oil prices are expected bullish.

 

Today, the market is watching the Asian region in the evening, the euro zone announced the investor confidence index and PPl data. During the period, the UK's announcement of the construction industry PMl and the relevant UK news about Brexit which is important data and news. If negative emotions appear, it is generally possible to see the decline of European currencies. In the evening, the Canadian National Economic Confidence Index and the US construction spending were announced at the same time, which should pay attention. 

 

Today's suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1390/1.1405 resistance

1.1350/1.1330 support

Last week, the US fourth-quarter GDP was better than expected, and it is expected that the US job data will continue to grow, which is expected the US dollar strength. Technically, the euro rebounded 61.8% against the US dollar, with 1.1405 being the current important resistance. However, under the US job data expectations, the euro may not be able to maintain its advantage against the US dollar. Note that the euro is downwards, maybe test the target support of 1.1350 or 1.1330.

 

GBPUSD

1.3260/1.3280 resistance

1.3175/1.3155 support

The most negative currency affected by the news,  as Pound. It is reported that most British parliamentarians have expressed their opposition to the new Brexit agreement and expect to veto the new draft of the Brexit submitted by the British Prime Minister. At the same time, the pound has a chance to fall. If the negative news in the UK continues, the pound will continue its downward trend. If the adjustment is made, the first support target will be able to refer to the 10-day moving average of 1.3122.  The 20-day moving average, can be referred to 1.3015.

 

USDCHF 

0.9965/0.9945 support

1.0035/1.0050 resistance

The US fourth-quarter GDP growth was better than expected, and the US dollar rose, driving the Swiss franc to fall. The euro has weakened and the Swiss franc has followed the pace of the euro. Technically, the USDCHF may still test resistance at 1.0035 or 1.0050 against the Swiss franc. The US data outlook is good, and the US dollar is bullish. USDCHF has a chance to reaching 1.0035 or 1.0050 resistance.

 

USDJPY

112.05/112.30 resistance

111.50/111.35 support

The Sino-US trade agreement is expected to sign an agreement at the end of March to resolve the long-standing trade wars. Fundamental improvement, safe-haven funds out of the yen, the dollar rose to 111 levels against the yen, and further approached 112. Technically, pay attention to the rebound wave 73.6%, 112.05 resistance. If the US Dow and the Japan Nikkei Index continue to rise, it is estimated that the USD/JPY is expected to test resistance at 112.30 or above. On the contrary, the stock market fell, the dollar against the yen has the opportunity to test 111.50 or 111.35 support. Keep an eye on the Sino-US trade negotiations and market sentiment, change the direction of the US dollar against the yen.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7078/0.7065 support

0.7115/0.7130 resistance

The market focusing on the China National Congress in China. The market is watching the conference to bring any good news to the market and bullish Asia pacific, which is expected to indirectly boost the Australian dollar. Technically, 0.7065 support is currently an important support point. If the rebound breaks above 0.7115, it is expected to rise further.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6795/0.6780 support

0.6830/0.6845 resistance

When the Australian dollar was weak, the indirect impact of the New Zealand dollar was weak. It is expected that the short-term Australian dollar performance will continue to develop around the New Zealand dollar. The National Congress of China is convened. If any good news to boost the economy, it hope to indirectly benefit the New Zealand dollar. Technically, 0.6795 and 0.6780 support, respectively, are 61.8% and 73.6% of the adjustment wave, which can be used as a reference.

 

USDCAD

1.3275/1.3150 support

1.3310/1.3335 resistance

Crude oil futures prices fell, the dollar against the Canadian dollar followed the rise, once rose to 1.3300. It is estimated that the short-term US job data will maintain growth forecasts, the US dollar is strong, and the Canadian dollar has a downward trend. Technically, it is expected to have a resistance of 1.3335 before the test. However, the fundamental factors can not be underestimated. It is recommended to pay attention to the price trend of crude oil futures, which indirectly affects the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.

 

EURGBP

0.8605/0.8635 resistance

0.8555/0.8530 support

Technically, the euro against the pound has risen, hitting 0.8605 resistance, due to the uncertainty of the Brexit vote and the deadline, once again see the pound fell, making the euro rise against the pound. Since the Brexit news dominates the trend of the pound, it is necessary to pay attention when investing in the euro against the pound.

 

EURCHF 

1.1360/1.1370 resistance

1.1330/1.1320 support

If the EUR/CHF stays within the range, it is expected to maintain 1.1330 and 1.1320 support in the short term and have the opportunity to test the resistance at 1.1370. Looking at the important economic data reference released by the Eurozone this week, the data may continue to affect the performance of the Euro, while affecting the fluctuation of the EURCHF.

 

XAUUSD 

1301/1304 resistance

1291/1288 support

The US fourth-quarter GDP was better than expected, and it was once again negative for gold. The market expects the US economy to maintain growth well, the US job data forecast is good. Safe-haven funds out of the gold market, gold prices fell. In addition, after the US-DPRK summit last week, the United States and the DPRK are expected to maintain good relations. The Sino-US trade agreement is expected to sign an agreement at the end of the month, driving global stock markets to rise and gold prices to fall. In the short-term, gold prices are expected to adjust before falling below $1,288, with resistance at 1301 or 1304.

 

US crude oil futures:

56.65/57.05 resistance

55.80/55.55 support

Last week, crude oil futures prices were adjusted from the resistance of 58 US dollars. It is expected to be adjusted to 55 US dollars. It is expected to gain support. The market will determine that the US job market will continue to grow this week and the Sino-US trade agreement will be further implemented. Technically, pay attention to 55.80 and 55.55 support, and the important support is $55. If the price stay above the important support level, look up the resistance at 56.65 and 57.05.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

26185/26240 resistance

26050/25930 support

The US President extended China's imports to increase import tariffs. The news said that the Sino-US trade agreement is expected to be implemented at the end of the month. The market is expected to end the Sino-US trade war and consolidate the investment climate. In addition, the Fed meeting minutes remain slack, which will help boost the investment climate and hope to support the stock market. Technically, the Dow 26240 resistance is very important and can be used as a reference.

 

BTCUSD:

3680  / 3480 support

3950 / 4100 resistance 

The Federal Reserve statement, involved the economic outlook and interest rate policy. The price of bitcoin stay back a bit. Now assumed the Fed is considering to stop interest rate hikes this first half year. It could be increasing the cryptocurrency market demand sharply. If USD strengthen Bitcoin weakness. If the dollar depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin.

 

Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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