Global: The dollar fell 0.17% to 98.288 due to global risk-on sentiment which led investors adding more exposure ahead of US earnings season. Both the Dow and S&P500 rose 0.89% to 27,025 and 1.00% to 2,996, respectively. The UST10-year was up 4.2bps to 1.771% while gold prices dropped 0.82% to US$1,481.01/oz. The pound surged 1.42% to 1.279, the highest level in five months following reports that Brexit talks are inching towards a draft deal. Although the current optimism may brew further catalyst for the pound to take it even higher to the 1.30 levels, there is still a lot to overcome even if a deal is agreed – most importantly parliament would need to back the agreement and this is far from assured. The economic release in the UK includes: (1) Aug unemployment rate up at 3.9% from 3.8% in July (cons: 3.8%); (2) wage growth eased to 3.8% y/y in Aug from 3.9% y/y in July (cons: 4.0%); and (3) claimant count change rose to 21.1K in Sep from 16.3K in Aug (cons: 26.5K). The euro rose marginally by 0.05% to 1.103 following the positive Brexit headlines. The Japanese yen fell 0.42% to 108.9 due to weaker appetite for safe-haven assets and disappointing economic release i.e. Aug industrial production down by 4.7% y/y vs. +0.7% y/y in Jul (cons: -4.7%). The yuan fell 0.20% to 7.082 as factory gate prices continued to slide for the fifth straight month by 1.2%y/y in September, hit by weakening demand and mounting trade tensions with the US. September’s headline inflation rose the fastest since November 2013 by 3% y/y from 2.8% y/y due to the surge in pork prices due to African swine fever (see Economic report below) .
Malaysia: The MYR fell 0.08% to 4.192. The KLCI lost 0.09% to 1,566.2. In the MGS market, the 3-year was muted at 3.120% while the 5- and 7-year yields added 1bps to 3.230% and 1.5bps to 3.385%, respectively. The 10- year eased 1bp at 3.415%. Both Brent and WTI shaved off 1.03% to US$58.74/bbl and 1.46% to US$52.81/bbl. Against the major currencies, the MYR rose 0.34% to 3.851 vs. the JPY and 0.12% to 1.689 vs. the CNY while it fell 0.09% at 4.621 vs. the EUR and 0.70% at 5.302 vs. the GBP. Regionally, the MYR was higher mostly; (THB) 0.05% at 7.263, (IDR) 0.10% at 3,379.3, (PHP) 0.03% to 12.32 but it weakened; (SGD) 0.03% at 3.058 and (VND) 0.04% to 5,537.4.
MYR Outlook: We expect the MYR to trade between our support levels of 4.1598 and 4.1708 while our resistance is pinned at 4.2058 and 4.2177.
China – Calls for stimulus support
September's headline inflation edged higher to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% y/y in August, the fastest in six years as a result of surging pork prices following the African swine fever outbreak. Meanwhile, core inflation stood at 1.5% y/y in September, the same August’s. The factory-gate inflation declined further to 1.2% y/y compared to 0.8% y/y in August, marking the sharpest fall since July 2016.
China
Calls for stimulus support
September's headline inflation edged higher to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% y/y in August, the fastest in six years as a result of surging pork prices following the African swine fever outbreak. Meanwhile, core inflation stood at 1.5% y/y in September, the same August’s. The factory-gate inflation declined further to 1.2% y/y compared to 0.8% y/y in August, marking the sharpest fall since July 2016. As the economy faces a deflation in factory gate prices, added with muted demand side pressure, we feel there is a strong case for policymakers to unveil additional stimulus. But we expect it to be a “flood-like” stimulus measure due to its highly leveraged economy. As such, we maintain our 2019 and 2020 GDP projections at 6.2% and 5.8%, respectively. Also, with the central bank having limited tools in its monetary policy, we feel the policymakers may consider additional RRR cuts.
Source: AmInvest Research - 16 Oct 2019