Investment Highlights

• We maintain our HOLD recommendation on Sime Darby Property (SimeProp) with a lower FV of RM0.84 (from RM0.86) based on a 50% discount to RNAV (Exhibit 2). We cut our FY20–FY21 numbers by 8% and 7% respectively to reflect the timing of revenue recognition while maintaining our FY22 net earnings forecast at RM384.4mil.

• SimeProp held an analyst briefing yesterday to shed more light on its recently announced FY19 results. Here are the key takeaways:

1) FY19 core net profit of RM312mil (additional RM40mil of mixed of gains and provisions) instead of RM352.3mil as stated in our previous report. FY19 core net profit actually came in below our and market expectations.

2) Sales target. SimeProp chalked up new sales of RM3,135.7mil in FY19 (+25.4% YoY) in FY19 whereby 56.1% were derived from residential properties.

3) Unbilled sale increased by 5.8% YoY to RM1,551.5mil due to sales recorded during the Primetime 8 and Spotlight 8 campaigns. Elmina West, Bandar Bukit Raja and Serenia City townships made up 60.8% of the unbilled sales.

4) New launches for 1QFY20. SimeProp is targeting to launch projects worth RM700mil in GDV in 1QFY20 with its main focus on landed residential properties (81.7%).

5) Efforts to reduce inventory levels. SimeProp will carefully review its new launches, taking into account of existing inventory level. Completed inventories were reduced by 22.5% YoY to RM588.5mil. Meanwhile, the value for completed and ongoing unsold units fell by 56.1% and 58.4% to RM539.8 and RM868.3mil respectively for the same period.

6) Remains focused on growing core development business by offering properties within the affordable and mid-range price points in strategic locations.

• The company anticipates that the market will remain soft in 2020 due to the prevailing overhang situation and expiry of the Home Ownership Campaign at the end of 2019. SimeProp will continue to monetise low-yielding assets to unlock value and channel the capital into business opportunities with better returns.

• We believe the outlook for SimeProp remains stable, premised on positive take-up rates, particularly Serenia City; inventory-clearing activities; and overseas contribution in 4QFY20 and a healthy balance sheet. Maintain HOLD.

Source: AmInvest Research - 28 Feb 2020