WahLau Backtesting

High Volume Vs Low Volume (KLSE and Dow 30 / DJI)

Wah Lau
Publish date: Sun, 01 Nov 2015, 09:12 PM
Wah Lau
0 41
Backtesting study.

My previous blog can't really show advantage or disadvantage of buying point at low volume http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Backtesting/85017.jsp. Today backtesting is to compare buying point between a years. Data I taken from 1999 to 2014, and each year average of 10 lower volume and 10 higher volume. 

For KLSE I take High Volume KLSE Close - Low Volume KSLE Close. KLSE results as below:

  Low Volume High Volume High Volume -
Low Volume (Close)
High Volume -
Low Volume Close %
Year Volume Close Volume Close
1999 10788370 511.349 177081480 773.41 262.06 51.25%
2000 15463120 914.357 227157390 930.152 15.80 1.73%
2001 20075940 621.775 124218440 643.515 21.74 3.50%
2002 20811460 674.468 131326840 776.513 102.04 15.13%
2003 18626220 648.484 184498580 756.037 107.55 16.59%
2004 28527530 849.856 186411070 875.121 25.27 2.97%
2005 35625900 888.987 132086370 922.86 33.87 3.81%
2006 49515860 923.415 258900340 1061.654 138.24 14.97%
2007 114628880 1339.01 462768880 1213.782 -125.23 -9.35%
2008 97745340 1058.283 524048770 1009.921 -48.36 -4.57%
2009 52219120 1254.997 702911320 1020.778 -234.22 -18.66%
2010 54351840 1362.165 201415230 1419.093 56.93 4.18%
2011 55239740 1483.253 294402620 1516.698 33.45 2.25%
2012 78553180 1598.657 253748900 1598.95 0.29 0.02%
2013 65092390 1810.085 314079100 1729.144 -80.94 -4.47%
2014 68862650 1856.513 225969100 1808.906 -47.61 -2.56%
Avg 49132971 1112.228 275064027 1128.533 16.31 4.80%

 

Year Low Volume High Volume High Volume -
Low Volume (Close)
High Volume -
Low Volume Close %
Volume Close Volume Close
Avg 1999 - 2006 24929300 754.0864 177710064 842.4077 88.32 13.74%
Avg 2007 - 2014 73336643 1470.37 372417990 1414.659 -55.71 -4.15%

 


From 1999 until 2006 that chart showing high volume higher change get high KLSE point compare to low volume. Showing low volume is good buying point. But after 2007 Low volume don't mean low KLSE point of the year.

How about 2015 from 1/Jan/2015 until 1/Nov/2015

Low Volume   High Volume
Data Volume Close Data Volume Close
15/5/2015 56989200 1811.92 7/10/2015 267171700 1689.25
18/2/2015 62964300 1807.87 17/9/2015 266058500 1681.54
3/4/2015 66470200 1834.52 29/5/2015 254439600 1747.52
3/8/2015 67706700 1744.19 1/9/2015 252654300 1609.21
13/7/2015 69578700 1716.11 9/10/2015 235294400 1706.54
24/7/2015 74377600 1720.76 8/10/2015 222987900 1692.20
16/7/2015 74418900 1726.73 25/8/2015 218974400 1563.94
12/6/2015 74602300 1734.37 30/9/2015 214255400 1621.04
27/7/2015 77096500 1709.76 23/1/2015 213716000 1803.08
5/6/2015 78044000 1745.33 22/1/2015 212420500 1781.75
Avg 70224840 1755.156 Avg 235797270 1689.607

Data dont completed and taken from https://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EKLSE&a=00&b=1&c=2015&d=10&e=1&f=2015&g=d

If you know the better place to take data please advice and thanks.

 

*Low volume is good buying point is the idea from KLSE.8k ebook. This ebook is from 20/11/2000 until 31/3/2006. Klse.8k sifu I wish you can continue share your point of view. If you still continue share your point of view. Anyone if have new Klse.8k news please leave the link in command here.

Dow 30 data as below:

Year Low Volume High Volume High Volume -
Low Volume (Close)
High Volume -
Low Volume Close %
Volume Close Volume Close
1999 55462000 10805.96 202812000 10947.28 141.318 1.31%
2000 123478000 10730.32 377558000 10375.69 -354.634 -3.30%
2001 122799000 10313.84 455203000 9538.282 -775.558 -7.52%
2002 144005000 9268.58 449594000 8412.68 -855.9 -9.23%
2003 101905000 9710.011 329076000 8351.129 -1358.88 -13.99%
2004 131659000 10356.66 364618000 10303.97 -52.683 -0.51%
2005 160720000 10696.37 404015000 10517.56 -178.817 -1.67%
2006 136704000 11979.16 484772000 11155.26 -823.902 -6.88%
2007 130042000 13563.85 420849000 13102.19 -461.661 -3.40%
2008 125925000 10596.05 551779000 10414.53 -181.516 -1.71%
2009 114920000 10369.3 593187000 7417.217 -2952.09 -28.47%
2010 94693000 11420.46 401829000 10577.6 -842.858 -7.38%
2011 80775000 12136.89 399829000 11540.64 -596.256 -4.91%
2012 69632000 13116.02 291220000 13000.52 -115.498 -0.88%
2013 58632000 15838.57 282455000 14873.36 -965.208 -6.09%
2014 52271000 17442.56 374858000 16530.06 -912.501 -5.23%

Mostly showing low volume high Dow 30 point and not good buying point.

 

Base on today backtesting, Low volume is good buying point in KLSE cant use start from 2007. If you have any idea or view about this, please advice.

**Just sharing as study case and take your own risk to use it in your investment.

If your want to see more data check below:

KLSE

Low Volume   High Volume
Date Volume Close   Date Volume Close
03/31/99 6115300 502.82   04/27/99 205601700 670.02
03/23/99 9850800 503.48   06/22/99 192057500 793.43
03/22/99 10254800 507.55   06/28/99 183773100 820.71
03/17/99 10473500 511.85   05/12/99 182064000 723.98
03/16/99 10921300 511.9   05/20/99 174951200 779.62
03/03/99 11414100 513.23   06/14/99 170774100 782.98
03/19/99 11628700 513.91   06/16/99 169155800 791.91
03/18/99 11663000 515.34   12/24/99 165226000 783.1
03/04/99 12612700 516.59   06/24/99 163891800 801.72
03/05/99 12949500 516.82   06/18/99 163319600 786.63
  10788370 511.349     177081480 773.41
             
01/25/00 14445200 952.06   03/14/00 451548000 932.05
08/09/00 14542600 819.11   03/15/00 442762000 920.49
01/24/00 14637400 954.5   12/14/00 349542000 712.5
01/11/00 15265300 846.74   02/17/00 182854900 1006.82
01/12/00 15293300 869.62   04/17/00 162789800 874.97
02/02/00 15562000 942.85   02/28/00 145109800 983.77
02/14/00 15913600 998.29   03/10/00 141978600 948.09
02/22/00 16229100 1000.83   03/02/00 141259400 941.82
02/21/00 16267500 1007.13   02/29/00 131722200 982.24
11/10/00 16475200 752.44   02/16/00 122007200 998.77
  15463120 914.357     227157390 930.152
             
07/03/01 17079400 591.18   07/19/01 163401200 649.49
03/16/01 17210600 672.01   07/05/01 138999400 617.14
10/01/01 18629400 613.95   07/25/01 123725800 643.77
11/06/01 20537400 592.75   07/06/01 123713200 626.81
05/28/01 20823000 566.09   08/27/01 121996200 694.22
11/07/01 20897800 592.26   07/26/01 121132800 642.79
12/24/01 21162600 669.58   07/18/01 119944600 647.72
02/26/01 21384200 710.94   07/20/01 113721600 648.78
10/29/01 21515000 605.8   12/05/01 109358800 653.01
10/30/01 21520000 603.19   05/02/01 106190800 611.42
  20075940 621.775     124218440 643.515
             
12/24/02 16168400 641.16   04/17/02 167122200 792.14
09/02/02 18752400 713.4   04/15/02 144255800 784.54
08/08/02 19411200 722.5   04/23/02 135703600 808.07
12/23/02 21095200 639.2   04/19/02 132277200 798.35
01/02/02 21151600 682.83   04/08/02 124475400 772.26
12/11/02 21787800 635.17   04/11/02 124411000 774.76
08/07/02 22147800 721.65   03/11/02 123879200 761.01
07/29/02 22194400 720.98   04/09/02 121790800 775.88
10/11/02 22660200 637.78   02/04/02 120115200 723.54
10/14/02 22745600 630.01   04/10/02 119238000 774.58
  20811460 674.468     131326840 776.513
             
01/02/03 14224200 632.43   10/10/03 268086800 790.66
04/21/03 16131200 634.3   10/09/03 267926600 779.41
04/18/03 17275200 635.61   07/03/03 251305600 721.93
01/03/03 18595800 633.5   07/07/03 171304800 730.4
01/08/03 18972600 625.13   07/04/03 170159000 725.11
05/05/03 19776800 631.41   10/22/03 156334800 805.11
02/24/03 19780600 651.56   07/08/03 150321600 727
04/22/03 20232800 632.99   10/08/03 147042400 759.62
12/26/03 20624600 780.02   10/13/03 131798600 791.74
01/06/03 20648400 627.89   07/15/03 130705600 729.39
  18626220 648.484     184498580 756.037
             
12/27/04 19970400 906.89   02/18/04 265590800 857.15
01/02/04 25085200 788.49   02/24/04 215346000 874.82
12/29/04 26815700 907.58   11/18/04 197033000 904.48
10/15/04 27412600 851.29   02/26/04 184323200 885.34
07/19/04 28031000 843.15   02/19/04 173749200 858.66
05/31/04 29680600 810.67   03/02/04 173345200 894.45
12/28/04 30144200 906.55   02/25/04 164365000 872.03
06/28/04 32228600 822.22   11/17/04 164178700 901.66
10/14/04 32584400 852.16   03/03/04 163122800 877.2
08/18/04 33322600 809.56   01/09/04 163056800 825.42
  28527530 849.856     186411070 875.121
             
03/25/05 25111600 883.4   07/22/05 259228200 939.69
12/27/05 28286400 894.51   08/03/05 140736000 952.59
03/28/05 32397600 885.44   11/07/05 124600800 911.53
02/08/05 37158800 914.91   10/19/05 122799200 914.17
12/19/05 37675200 895.86   07/25/05 121216400 939.84
06/07/05 37811000 876.92   01/12/05 115094100 933.33
05/30/05 38929200 869.96   07/20/05 111158400 924.01
12/23/05 39075600 892.13   05/04/05 109646000 903.07
05/19/05 39463800 887.47   12/01/05 109014600 887.8
05/16/05 40349800 889.27   09/21/05 107370000 922.57
  35625900 888.987     132086370 922.86
             
01/03/06 21876000 892.85   11/30/06 369717000 1080.66
01/04/06 44177800 897.13   12/06/06 285376500 1098.35
08/09/06 46926400 941.26   12/01/06 275056500 1080.11
06/23/06 51364000 906.34   11/16/06 247882300 1037.6
08/15/06 51562200 943.94   11/20/06 244308000 1033.52
04/14/06 53755800 938.32   05/09/06 239606000 966.88
08/08/06 54620400 939.08   12/05/06 236627600 1088.96
08/14/06 56106200 946   12/04/06 232580300 1077.44
07/21/06 56186000 924.72   11/29/06 229599500 1064.6
06/26/06 58583800 904.51   12/12/06 228249700 1088.42
  49515860 923.415     258900340 1061.654
             
09/17/07 87764800 1278.34   02/28/07 614671400 1196.45
04/06/07 107238200 1278.92   02/09/07 507302100 1240.87
09/11/07 113373200 1286.33   02/15/07 478470300 1258.63
11/19/07 116242300 1379.91   03/05/07 465388900 1110.69
11/23/07 117493200 1353.55   02/27/07 458939400 1237.08
11/26/07 119716700 1364.37   08/17/07 457989100 1191.55
11/27/07 120212200 1364.99   02/08/07 443598700 1248.83
09/14/07 120738500 1289.5   08/16/07 430892000 1207.61
10/19/07 121555100 1370.17   02/06/07 390444000 1236.63
12/26/07 121954600 1424.02   02/02/07 379992900 1209.48
  114628880 1339.01     462768880 1213.782
             
12/26/08 55986200 867.35   10/16/08 623167200 920.02
12/24/08 62647600 869.62   03/10/08 558533100 1173.22
12/30/08 95932800 881.63   10/30/08 551642400 853.56
08/26/08 103517900 1070.5   01/11/08 543175500 1516.22
03/21/08 105239200 1189.06   11/04/08 530705400 905.58
06/17/08 105609500 1227.76   10/24/08 512472000 859.11
08/12/08 110954500 1118.78   11/03/08 487645900 899.35
12/16/08 111818700 854.8   10/31/08 485047400 863.61
08/27/08 112367200 1067.65   05/30/08 481188900 1276.1
01/02/08 113379800 1435.68   10/28/08 466909900 832.44
  97745340 1058.283     524048770 1009.921
             
12/24/09 41488600 1263.94   05/11/09 816858900 1025.5
12/23/09 43686000 1260.53   05/07/09 764863000 1023.47
12/29/09 47798000 1275.22   05/29/09 761773800 1044.11
12/28/09 49237800 1272.73   05/05/09 724748300 1008.87
09/29/09 51999600 1208.21   05/13/09 722877400 1022.84
11/13/09 54833600 1270.96   05/06/09 702251900 1023.96
12/30/09 57402600 1271.12   06/02/09 662632500 1063.62
10/12/09 57814200 1233.33   04/30/09 627659400 990.74
12/22/09 58808000 1260.42   05/14/09 623401500 1011.99
10/13/09 59122800 1233.51   04/24/09 622046500 992.68
  52219120 1254.997     702911320 1020.778
             
12/24/10 45783400 1511.58   12/10/10 277808000 1507.28
12/27/10 45943800 1511.72   12/09/10 209160800 1521.29
06/14/10 51568800 1297.16   12/08/10 205107600 1510.06
06/28/10 53813200 1325.54   09/01/10 194903000 1431.96
04/26/10 54767400 1340.07   03/08/10 194749000 1324.22
04/23/10 56413400 1336.78   05/26/10 194649700 1248.94
06/25/10 56493800 1326.45   11/12/10 189206600 1499.81
01/04/10 56508200 1275.75   08/30/10 183197800 1422.49
04/02/10 60418400 1335.94   09/22/10 182785900 1474.75
08/09/10 61808000 1360.66   05/25/10 182583900 1250.13
  54351840 1362.165     201415230 1419.093
             
12/27/11 41876000 1500.91   05/31/11 404034600 1558.29
12/28/11 45030000 1504.11   08/09/11 325011000 1472.14
04/25/11 45114800 1524.05   08/05/11 316934000 1524.43
10/10/11 54891000 1397.04   01/05/11 316364200 1566.17
12/19/11 57540000 1477.78   08/08/11 313999000 1496.99
12/23/11 57780600 1496.15   01/07/11 265674400 1572.21
11/11/11 61556600 1468.75   08/10/11 264453600 1480.52
12/29/11 62334800 1506.69   01/21/11 251428600 1547.43
12/12/11 63036800 1467.1   08/26/11 249168400 1444.81
12/05/11 63236800 1489.95   02/10/11 236958400 1503.99
  55239740 1483.253     294402620 1516.698
             
12/26/12 58336600 1671.58   02/29/12 329668800 1569.65
08/27/12 77450000 1648.13   05/31/12 310723800 1580.67
01/03/12 77480000 1513.54   08/07/12 279393800 1631.12
08/28/12 77849600 1647.11   09/14/12 252363200 1642.95
10/15/12 80400800 1654.44   11/30/12 237455400 1610.83
04/06/12 80618400 1598.87   03/30/12 232123200 1596.33
12/24/12 80711200 1669.4   09/13/12 230334400 1628.4
05/28/12 83517200 1554.94   02/08/12 230225200 1553.18
01/06/12 83640000 1514.13   09/18/12 219796800 1640.33
01/05/12 85528000 1514.43   05/16/12 215404400 1536.04
  78553180 1598.657     253748900 1598.95
             
12/26/13 39266500 1844.1   05/06/13 460879200 1752.02
12/24/13 43420400 1835.49   05/31/13 321700800 1769.22
12/23/13 58940900 1832.86   06/21/13 313697800 1755.85
12/27/13 68685700 1861.06   05/07/13 311994800 1776.73
11/04/13 71274700 1807.47   08/20/13 310561400 1745.42
08/07/13 71763400 1779.32   08/28/13 304554700 1686.17
10/14/13 73069900 1784.76   08/22/13 280926100 1720.37
10/03/13 73213800 1771.37   03/15/13 280042600 1627.64
11/28/13 73856200 1807.6   04/03/13 279277600 1685.4
10/07/13 77432400 1776.82   07/31/13 277156000 1772.62
  65092390 1810.085     314079100 1729.144
             
04/18/14 50634500 1852.69   05/30/14 477552300 1873.38
05/06/14 61088900 1860.43   03/21/14 238355500 1820.48
04/21/14 64269300 1862.93   01/27/14 221453700 1778.88
01/02/14 66306000 1852.95   08/29/14 206340200 1866.11
05/05/14 71044900 1860.54   04/30/14 194367200 1871.52
07/25/14 71808400 1877.34   10/17/14 191013400 1788.31
10/03/14 74837000 1840.82   01/16/14 188760700 1813.01
07/23/14 75032300 1871.83   10/16/14 181474400 1767.77
07/01/14 76764400 1879.12   02/28/14 180935100 1835.66
11/17/14 76840800 1806.48   12/16/14 179438500 1673.94
  68862650 1856.513     225969100 1808.906

 

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