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Every battle is won BEFORE it is fought – Sun Tzu. by CFTrader

CFTrader
Publish date: Tue, 04 Aug 2015, 06:36 PM

First, I would apologize for my terrible English. I’m neither a good writer nor do well in that grammar stuff, so please bear with my … horrible Manglish.

 

            Today the topic I plan to write about is Strategy.

           


            Every battle is won BEFORE it is fought – Sun Tzu.

 

Disclaimer: If you searching for tips or head and shoulder or breakout thingy, nope, you can find those who proclaimed 92% success rate, or those whom willing to sell their holy grail at a mere Rm 8k or RM 10k or .. Whatever.

          And I don’t know about complicated stuff such as advance accounting nor advance valuation stuff. If you guys are interested with those stuff, I could recommend kcchongnz to learn about FA.

 

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I doubt that most of the investor / trader in this forum doesn't know much about Portfolio management. I think most of them will be like "eh ... 100k portfolio only, manage what ? find good tips 50% gain enough lah... "

Some of the sifu are lean towards FA gang, and some lean towards TA gang. But to me, FA and TA are nothing but pawns to me. The real General who control the outcome of the war ... is you. Yes, you. The one whom control the war. 

Yaya, Chinese Chess... does anyone know how to play it ?

In chinese chess, we have the least powerfull (appearing to be useless) pawn, the bishop, the knight, the cannon, and the rook.

Every part of the chess, is vital to your success.

A good general doesn't sacrifies their pawn easily - some players achieved victory by using pawns to checkmate their opponent.

Some might just using the powerfull rook, and ended up their favorite pieces "locked“ by their opponent.

You must look at the whole situation, assess it, and use every pieces to their maximum advantages.

[ Even a war hero, unable to win a well planned war]

 

 

Example:

Look at portfolio A and portfolio B and portfolio C. Both of them have the same capital (assumption is RM 100k) , same stock (4 stocks as example ) , buy at the same price But yield different total return.

 

ABC bought @ RM 1.00 ,  Current RM 1.50   - 50% gain

DEF bought @ RM 12.00, current RM 8.00   - 33% loss

GHI bought @ RM 0.50 , current RM 0.45     - 10% loss

LFA bought @ Rm 1.00, current Rm 1.20      - 20% gain

 

Portfolio A is diversified portfolio, A allocated 25% of capital for each stock, hence it gives a return of 6.75k return.

ABC gives 25k x 50% = 12.5k gain

DEF gives 25k x 33% = 8.25k loss

GHI gives 25k x 10% = 2.5k loss

LFA gives 25k x 20% = 5k gain

 

Portfolio B, however is a more concentrated portfolio / leans towards a stock. It allocated 40% to big cap (DEF), and a smaller portion to medium cap (25% to ABC, 25% to LFA) , and 10% to penny stock. It yields a 4.55k return.

ABC gives 25k x 50% = 12.5k gain

DEF gives 40k x 33% = 13.2k loss

GHI gives 10k x 10% = 1k loss

LFA gives 25k x 25% = 6.25k gain

 

Portfolio C is another penny stock believer. It allocated most of the capital on small and mid cap (45% for GHI, 20% for ABC and LFA) and another 15% for big cap. It yields 4.55k return too.

 

Thats an example on different portfolio, manage by different player, yielding different result , even they have the same buying price and the same stock.

 

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Okay, enough of talking bullshit.

Let just share one of the portfolio management I encountered across a blogger.

 

This blogger, equip himself with 3-1 strategy.

3 portion of share, and 1 portion of cash, doesn't matter the candlestick breakout till your monitor rosak, or breakdown till suffered from Myocardial Infarction.

Example : RM 100k portfolio

75k allocated to the stock , and the rest 25k is allocated as cash.


When the market rallies, 

the stock value increase until 100k ... but the cash remains 25k.

So the ratio become 8:2

Hence, he had to reduce the stock value, and return the portfolio to 3:1 ratio.

 

The same thing happens when the market falls.

The stock value drops to 50k. The cash remains at 25k.

Hence, the ratio was 2:1. 

Hence, he is able to add some stock, and return the portfolio into 3:1 golden ratio.

 

That's what he does. 

However, this is just a BASIC CASH/ STOCK ratio balance. 

How he did the stock management ? I have no idea.

 

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Another example of portfolio management given by the famous Gxxxxxxxx teacher was to differentiate the stock holding into 3 parts.

The first part will be assessed , and is planned to be locked for a very long term.

The second part will be assessed via themeplay and fundemendal. It is more lean towards - theme + wave playing.

The 3rd part ? Everybody's favorite. Punting part. 

How they allocate precisely, I have no idea, again.

 

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To sum up, I'll use a chinese quote .

天时 (The timing), 地利 (The advantage of the field ), 人和 (The human resources) is vital for a war.

Apply it to your portfolio management.


Remember, you can win 100% , 5 times, 10 times, or 20 times, but you will lost all your fortune when you lost 80%... in one shot.

 

Last but not the least,

What's your portfolio management. Active discussion is encouraged. Thank you.

 

Discussions
9 people like this. Showing 13 of 13 comments

Probability

Wah..so complicated ah this portfolio management...
I LOST before I fight already :(..

2015-08-04 21:08

choolooi

CFT Trader, a good presentation of logical ideas... Thanks
Haha !!! What about 4::4::2 allocation?

2015-08-04 21:39

CFTrader

Complicated ?
To get a good annually CAGR, I think this is the most vital skill to learn.

choolooi
4:4:2 allocation . 4 parts of ? another 4 parts of ? another 2 parts of ?

Personally,
I'm using my own portfolio system which is a mix of conservative-growth system since my capital is small.

Allow me to talk about my personal portfolio management a bit.(you can skip it if you want to)

My system consist of 4 parts.

The first part is building a nest of of growth stock. The growth stock MUST have the potential to build the moat and have the ability to achieve organic growth for at least 5 years.

I'll just list an example (but I do not own it), SAM Engineering.

The second part is punt . I wouldn't go further.

The third part is rotational growth play. The company have the potential to grow 30%-100% within 1-3 years, but it is cyclical in nature. Example ? Property is a good example . Furniture yes. Semi-con yes.


The fourth part is the growing dividend building system. This is one of the interesting part of the system.

zero order of return (one-off gain) : Buy low sell high
1st order of return (recurrent gain) : buy for fixed dividend.
2nd order of return (increase recurrent gain at arimethical pace ) : buy for increasing dividend in AP phase (example : 5c, 6c, 7c, 8c, 9c )
3rd order of return (increase recurent gain at exponential pace) : buy for increament dividend in GP phase (example : 3c, 3.3c, 3.8c, 4.5c, 5.5c ...)

The final objective is to find the 3rd order of return, so that to maximize the recurring income in this category.

2015-08-04 21:55

CFTrader

People will share how they pick share, but not the strategy.

Because by selecting share, they can tell the world they able to pick "the strongest rook" in the chessboard, but in fact, he sucks in planning... or he exchange a rook for a pawn....

2015-08-04 21:58

coolio

I like to use football formation in investing. 5:3:2 and 4 for reserved player.
For defensive I invest in very strong fundamental & defensive stocks like Magni, Pintaras,Mfcb etc
For midfield I invest in good fundamental with growth prospect stocks like Geshen, Futu, Lcth etc
For attack, I invest in stocks with high volume which is not bad in fundamental like Frontkn, SCH, AWC etc.
My reserved player will be my cash.
So the portion will be 35%:20%:15% . Cash 30%

2015-08-04 23:29

Probability

ha ha...nice illustration there coolio....seems logical to me.

Attack - are stocks which u wont stay invested for too long i guess..
they are more TA based I guess.. he he..

2015-08-05 00:12

CFTrader

thank you for sharing coolio. Much appreciated =D

2015-08-05 02:25

krischris

Thanks for putting effort to write this. This shows that you're an experience investor

2015-08-05 10:00

matrix6050

well written bro

2015-10-12 17:21

CFTrader

Bring up this old post again.

How many investor still manage their portfolio well ?

2016-01-28 17:16

matrix6050

a few stocks on hand shows red which purchased this year, some stocks that holding from last year still maintaining well..be patient and wait for more opportunities.

2016-02-11 11:02

CFTrader

did anyone still reviewing this article ?
Too bad a lot of players getting burned and left the market...

So much asked for a great general (Good stock), but when they discovered a great general, their Commanding skill is mediocore or subpar (bad Portfolio management)

Sincerely
CFTrader

2019-05-23 18:29

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