Introduction

Bitcoin price closed the month at around $102k in January. The question is what will February bring?

I think "majority odds", Bitcoin will make a new all time highs in February.  The all-time high price was $109.3k, I think we will see $110k or higher sometime this month.

Why?  Take a look at Bitcoin's seasonal chart below.

Bitcoin Seasonal Chart

Key observations:

1. The last 2 halving cycle is 2017 and 2021.   2013 performance is not meaningful, as the market cap was still small then, where crazy returns are more likely to happen.
   
2. In January, the past 2 data points suggests a wide performance range between 0.2% to 14.4% which Bitcoin finally finished the month around +8.6%.
3. If the past continues, it suggests Feb performance could be between 23% to 36%.  My guess is on the low side like 2017.   A conservative guess is to look over 2 month period for 2017 - say 0.2% (Jan) + 23.2% (Feb) = 23.5% over 2 months.  Then take 80% of that giving us around 19%.  Then subtract actual Jan performance which is 8.6% (Jan 2025).  This gives us roughly 10% as a conservative performance guess for Feb.
4. And that would take us to around 1.1 x 102.3k ~ $112k.

How I am trading this?

I like the simplest "no brainer" strategy with conservative targets.

As I write this, Bitcoin is trading below $100k (thank-you Mr Market!) so I am buying Bitcoin at this price with the rest of my Ringgit in my Luno account (which is only RM6k).  As I write this, due to weak Ringgit, Bitcoin/RM is trading at 451,450.   

So, I will split this into 2 parcels (orders already entered).

1. RM3k to buy at 450,008.
2. RM3k to buy at 448,088.

I am unsure if this will be filled but let's see ...

After my broker tells me it is filled, I will then enter a price 10% higher than my buy price and make it a GTC sell order.

Then, let's see if that is filled in February 2025.

Meanwhile, can't wait for US Options market to open tomorrow evening - will be looking to sell more Puts and collect more monies as we have expiries on Friday and even next week's expiries are winning ...

Ka-ching!

Risks of this trade?

There's always risks in trading.

There's no guarantee that Bitcoin Feb 2025 performance could be between 10% (estimated conservatively) to 36% (as we've seen in Feb 2021).  The lowest performance in Feb is -11.3% in Feb 2012 and Feb 2025 performance could be the worst ever performance below that.

So, everything has risks - if you are a weak hand and you lose, this is 100% your own fault.  Read the disclaimer.

Summary and Conclusion

Can't wait for US markets to open tomorrow.

Hope Bitcoin price stays low long enough for me to enter meaningfully in the US, to make several multiples gains from my Luno account in February!

Good luck!

Disclaimer:  Not financial advice.  Just a random guy on the Internet.  You are solely responsible for your trading and investing decisions.