DividendGuy67

DividendGuy67 | Joined since 2022-07-29

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Stock

2 days ago | Report Abuse

@raider, you echo my thoughts - double before 5 years is a majority scenario in my book too, especially after this Special Dividend landmark decision. For the first time, in a very long time, HLIND finally decided to share more of its cash with shareholders. Truly landmark.

Now is only Q2, and total dividends 70 sen, highest ever (at least past 10 years).
Nice increase from the previous 57 sen too.
This is how dividends should be managed.

Hence, can recommend higher than neutral position for long term investment.
If the price fall, you'll find me there to support and accumulate to be higher than neutral.

Stock

2 days ago | Report Abuse

Fuiyoh .... 50 sen special dividend beat my expectations so, so, nicely!
Total dividend this year is now 70 sen. At current price of 9.57, that's still easily above 7% dividend yield.
I am applauding management and the board for not hoarding the cash!
Bravo HLIND!

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6 days ago | Report Abuse

I have written about both HLIND and BAT here:
HLIND: http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/02/hlind.html
BAT: http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/01/bat.html

One is simple to understand how we make money over the longer term.
The other - I have no clue how shareholders will make money longer term.

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6 days ago | Report Abuse

This one is certainly a "should own" stock. The only question for me is "how much?" That depends on your objective, your risk tolerance, what is your investment philosophy and strategy. I have mine where I am highly diversified, where my neutral position is around 3% capital. And this one should be neutral. My only complain is why Quek has been hoarding cash for the past 9 years - what exactly are his plans?

Having said that, if you are feeling speculative - note the 6 year triangle consolidation. Within the next 1-2 years, there should be some kind of a breakout.

Happy reading - http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/02/hlind.html.

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6 days ago | Report Abuse

My most recent accumulation price is 1.19. It brings my average price down to 1.33, so, I'm still in red. I have around 2.5% of my capital here, so, the unrealized loss is very small.

Normally, I'm not excited at my losses, so, I don't think I'll add more because I already added at 1.19.

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6 days ago | Report Abuse

@raider, agree it is long term cyclical, that's a sound strategy for cyclicals, except the question is - has it bottomed yet ? What is your average accumulation price and position size (what % of capital) in LCTITAN?

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/02/pohuat.html
For your reading pleasure.

In summary, I want to own this stock when it is cheap, because it's a very reliable cash generating machine. E.g. since 2015, the Net Cash has consistently grown at a CAGR of 30.2% per annum.

However, I don't want to own this in a big way, because the founder/owner/board is stingy with its dividends for a decade or longer and their DNA is unlikely to change. Still, it's good for at least 5%-5.5% DY per annum, and the stock is clearly undervalued. However, this company has no capital commitments, the last EPS was only 10 sen a big drop from 32 sen the prior year and the lowest over the past 10 years, the founder is ageing, still stingy (e.g. despite owning over 55 million shares, when price was 1.28, he still goes out to the open market to accumulate 0.02 million given his age).

I started drafting when it was RM1.33 but didn't manage to finish it. I had accumulated at an average price of 1.28. My target size is around 2.8% to 3% capital, but I didn't manage to get it, as I only got 2.4% capital, which is close enough that I won't chase. Current price is already 1.43. It's no big deal.

Hope all of you are making monies.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

@1288, a couple of months ago, I penned this here. At the time, both BAT and HLIND were trading at similar levels at 9.17 or thereabouts. I shared my view then that it's probably better to swap BAT to HLIND, because both pays high dividends, but one shows declining EPS vs the other rising EPS.

Today, BAT is 9.02. HLIND is 9.40.

--------------

To long term BAT lovers.
Today, BAT closes 9.16.
Another stock that closes similarly is HLIND 9.17.

If you are not a trader and you think you'll be holding BAT for "long term" (e.g. several years), you may want to consider partial / full swap.

Over the past 8 years, BAT EPS dropped from 318 sen (2015) down to 68 sen (2023 Est).
Over the same period, HLIND Net Cash grew from 275m (2016) up to 1600+ million (2023 Est).

HLIND pays a generally rising dividend from 29 sen (2015) to 57 sen (2023 Est).
BAT dividends shrunk from 312 sen (2015) down to 67 sen (2023 Est).

Think about the difference.
You don't need to be a Grade A+ trader like MOBA to win.
Buy HLIND when the price is low.
Do nothing and relax.
In a few years time, check up BAT prices again and compare your HLIND holdings.
Odds are good that you'll win with HLIND.

As usual, nothing is certain in investing.
Hence, don't bet more than 5% of your investment portfolio on any 1 idea.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Hmmm ... after 7 consecutive quarter reporting losses, chart action suggests that speculators are now trying to pick bottoms and betting that LCTITAN's prospects are now looking brighter.

Can't complain. Not chasing. Happy to hold and watch.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

On Valentine's Day, I took a trading buy position to buy SHANG at 2.03. Didn't expect it to take off so quickly to close at 2.16. For whatever reason, SHANG is still downtrending, so I won't chase. The only question is should I sell at rally attempts.

My trading position is typically 10-30 times smaller than my dividend investing position, so, I really don't care about the outcome of this trade - no point making a couple hundred bucks. The price action the past 6-7 months seem to indicate more than 50%-55% chance that last month fall is a fake breakdown, typically indicating that we may have seen the bottom. But the trend is unmistakeably downtrending i.e. it's really a coin toss whether this is the bottom or not.

As my trading position is small, I'm going to wait and let market tells me if it's going to make a new low or this is the bottom. A part of me hopes that this rally is a fake one, it makes a new low allowing me to turn my small trading position into an investing position for the next 12-36 months.

I like the SHANG brand name. No exposures to hotels yet. Can be a good diversification to finally own an investing position to utilize 2%-3% of my investing capital.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Nice. On 2/1/24, I first entered into KLCC at RM7.00 as its Dividend Yield ranges between 5%-5.5%. Nice to see it closes strongly today at RM7.65. Together with BIMB and and 22 other stocks in green to offset reds, my portfolio has hit new all time highs again today. That's 4 consecutive days of hitting new all time highs. What a great New Year! Thank-you Mr Market.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Wonder when BJFOOD will issue the quarterly report. Historically, it issues it between 6 to 13 Feb. Today is 16 Feb and not yet issued. Having problems to explain its MRQ earnings? Hmmmnnn ...

On 6 Feb, substantial shareholder (Berjaya Corp, Group, etc) bought 21.2 million shares. Do they know something, or trying to trick the market to support prices? This type of activity (buying its own shares and delaying the issue of the quarterly report to contain the first bad impact) doesn't inspire trust.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

It is amazing when you track its NTA growth over the past 10 years - this small growing stock has consistently grown its NTA by 14% per annum CAGR over past 10 years. It's NTA is 3.29. It's trading at 2.44, below Book Value, for a bank that grows its equity at the rate of 14% per annum over past 10 years ... it was so overlooked by the market.

It's Dividend Payout ratio is only 38% ... not stretching at all. This stock grows its Net Worth and grows its earnings and is having a conservative dividend payout ratio. And when I entered at an average cost of 1.87, it was yielding 7.2% dividend yield. What a bargain then.

It pays to own overlooked stocks when everyone was afraid and nobody wants to own it when it was crashing back in May 2022.

I know this bank's value and with a price action like this, there's no rush to take profits on its way up. I may trim it so that it doesn't become too big a proportion but otherwise, the strategy is still to sit tight on your winners and sit tight on your losers, so that your winners become a larger proportion of your portfolio and your losers naturally become a smaller proportion of your portfolio so that your portfolio can keep making new all time highs regularly especially when you own a portfolio of sound, good fundamental stocks and businesses ...

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Looking closer, I was very lucky to have entered into BIMB near the bottom.
- My first entry was 9/5/23 at 2.03.
- I then keep buying more as price went down until it hit near the bottom of 1.75 - I didn't get the absolute low of 1.7, but it was good enough to be able to buy at 1.75.
- That brought my average cost down to 1.87.
- Then, we receive dividends. I took some small profits and my net cost after dividends and a small amount of realized means my average cost price is now 1.70. This is for my 5th largest holdings out of 48 stocks.

At 2.44 close today, my unrealized gains is now close to 43%.

And here I was, when I entered at an average cost of 1.87, I was only happy to target a long term Dividend Yield of 7.2%. Now it turns out, instead of gaining 7% (since I held less than a year), I have earned something like 43% gains. What a bonus.

Thank-you Mr Market.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Fuiyoh ... BIMB closed +3.83%. BIMB now climbs to my Top 5 largest stock from Top 7 yesterday. Thanks to BIMB and 23 other stocks that closed in green, my portfolio hit New All Time high again today for 4 consecutive trading days ... Thank-you Mr Market!

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Can TAANN hit RM4? Today decent close +2.71% challenging resistance. Intraday looks like rejection and price might fall for a while but the overall attack since Mar 2023 low looks promising in the near future.

The higher lows over past 12 months doesn't make it easy to accumulate. It means there's buyers each time these higher lows were revisited. Someone's accumulating.

Good odds we'll be laughing anywhere in the next 1-12 months ...

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

BIMB closed +2.6% with higher volume. Nice price move, looking to retest previous resistance. The more times it tries to retest, the better in general.

BIMB is my 7th largest holding out of 49 stocks today. Thanks to BIMB and 21 other green stocks to offset the few reds, my portfolio made new All Time High again today. Thank-you Mr Market!

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

HAPSENG +1.66%, trying to make an upward move. This plus other green is enough to offset the reds, to propel my portfolio to make new all time high again today. Thank-you Mr Market.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

@mini, EPF is very good to deliver average 6% pa. since I started working. My net worth is safe and has grown considerably here. I also self invest in stocks and since inception beat EPF by nearly 4% per annum. It is now larger than my EPF. I recommend EPF to everyone.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

@fabien, you'll need to understand selling, to allocate capital efficiently.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

PAVREIT closed RM1.32. Nice. After my initial entry at 1.22, I added more as it weakened, with an average buy cost of RM1.21. When foreigners comes to Bursa, they seem to like this one more on the REIT space for obvious reasons.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

MBMR closed 4.66, making new All Time High again today.
Thanks to MBMR, MAYBANK, FPI and other stocks, my portfolio also made new all time high again today.
Thank-you Mr Market!

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Thanks to MAYBANK, FPI and 21 other stocks to offset 14 red stocks today, my portfolio hit new all-time high again today. With KLCI + 1.26%, hope everyone's portfolio are doing well as well. Thank-you Mr Market.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

MAYBANK closed 9.44, helped pull KLCI up.
I'm expecting MAYBANK to declare 32 sen dividend.
I'm also expecting highest EPS for past 9 years, maybe even past 10 years.
Share price no where near highet over past 10 years.
RM10 is a magnet. If supported by positive earnings outlook, we might see this price over next few months.
If foreigners can sustain buying into Malaysia this year, we might even see RM11 either this or next year.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Nice close at 3.05. With higher volume too. Thanks to FPI and another 22 other stocks, my portfolio hit new all time high again today.

Next stop is RM3.45 to close the big opening gap fill a year ago.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

At 10.82, TENAGA has given me a price gain of nearly 18%. Originally, I was only looking for 4% price gain per annum, so that's nearly 4.5 years of annual gains already, sooner than I expect. The DY has falled to 4.3%. My DY on cost is 5.3%.

Personally, my base case view is RM11 is a magnet and RM12 is not impossible.
At the same time, I can identify a dozen stocks where very likely monies are better spent on these dozen than remain in TENAGA. These are choices between decent choices (TENAGA) and what I think are better future prospects.

As such, the rational strategy for me is obvious. As price hits my targets, I will lighten to buy what I think are better opportunities. I don't do this often, very rarely in fact, so, these have to be very, very clear to me before I execute. 99% of the decision depends on what market gives me. Nearly always, I do nothing.

TENAGA is decent. The coal part is dirty, declining and until it cleans up, some funds will continue to avoid, notwitstanding a bullish market due to ESG reasons. But it's inflation matching and will always have pricing power. The past 5 years EPS is not looking good, but if history is an indicator, this should improve as it's a quasi monopoly for nearly all of us.

The longer term strategy for this stock is obvious.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Buffett throughout his life is a Master of Position Size. He knows his stock returns extremely well. He knows the base case outcome and the outlier outcomes. He knows how he can fix future stock earnings/returns. He is able to identify stocks with the highest expectancy at the lowest risks and then, size up appropriately. When he finds a truly great deal, he doesn't both to bet small but big. He is the Master of knowing all the risks of a stock.

And honestly, I don't think he will not buy RAPID. This stock has too great a risk that he can't control. It's not to say RAPID can't do well in the future. It's to say along the way, it can also crashmore. So, punting small and not average down is the closest to avoiding the stock.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

One advantage of punting very small on speculative stocks, #and# not adding to one's losers = it remains small and doesn't stop your portfolio to make new all time highs again. Today is another day like this. RAPID loses monies but portfolio made new all time highs again. This lesson on Position Sizing is so, so important that nobody talks about it enough. Everyone wants to know what price to enter, what price to exit, but nobody talks about the Art of Position Sizing. Position Size affects most of your returns, not your entries or exits. This is because entries and exits are somewhat random. You got to know your highest expectancy trades and your highest volatility trades and position size appropriately to optimize returns.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

EPS fall is slowing down, but still falling.
- Peak EPS in 2015 at 312 sen.
- 2 years later (2017), halved at 169 sen.
- 3 years later (2020), halved again at 83 sen.
My guess is 5 years later (2025), halved again at 40-45 sen. That would value the company at a P/E of 15 at around RM6-7.

As a single Vuse is roughly equal to a dozen cig packs, BAT revenue will still contract for many years to come, and with it, its EPS. Until its Revenues and EPS stabilizes (which can take many years) and turn around, this stock is not ripe for investing yet. This may only happen after 2030 or so ... wait for its next few annual reports.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

52 week range 1.21 to 1.35. Doesn't move much. Literally like a super FD. When price is at the lower third (between 1.21 to 1.25), just add to rebalance one's portfolio as one's portfolio grows. I first entered at 1.30 (a little bit high), but have been adding at lower prices and my average cost is now 1.24.

Today it just went ex-div. That brought it down to 1.28. Typically, after that, it may drift slightly lower. Around 1.25, I will add some again to rebalance my portfolio to make sure I have stocks like these at an appropriate size. They are like stabilizers.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Steady dividend payor.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

This nice and solid stock edges up, enough to make my portfolio to hit new all time high again! Changed my mind - originally intending to take some profits near RM3 resistance, but along the way when it was 2.8 to 2.87, I added a little bit to raise my average cost from 2.5x to 2.62. This nice counter is in my Top 20% buy size.

My current outlook is to expect 23 sen dividend (say 21-25 sen), assuming 60% dividend payout ratio. At 3.02, this is 7.6% dividend yield which is nice and solid. No plans to take profits yet.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Vape profit margin is much lower than cigarettes.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@60, revenue declined since 2017.
- 2017: 5.61 bn
- 2018: 5.53 bn
- 2019: 5.48 bn
- 2020: 4.9 bn
- 2021: 4.4 bn
- 2022: 4.2 bn
- 2023: 3.8 bn (FYE ending Jan 2023)
- 3Q YTD is lower than 2023.

It's clear its not just current management, the declining revenue and deteriorating business model happened even in previous management.
Basically, its business is sun-setting. For 7 consecutive years, they have no clue how to turn around this business. It's not a hard business to understand - basically lots of new competition past 7 years, and won't get better.

It's trying to bottom and rally, but latest rally attempt on 18 Jan just got sold down hard.

Revenue is one thing, earnings though is a disaster. Past 7 years, earnings declined from a lovely financial position, and this year 9 months looks like it may end the year with the first full year negative earnings for the first time in the company's history since 2017 peak. That's a disaster.

Fundamentally, rallies should be sold. Technically, depends on charts as the price pattern is not natural.

News & Blogs

2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

A great role model is Warren Buffet. Hard to go wrong to model after him.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This detail / good news was announced today, so, don't be surprised if price falls tomorrow on good news announcement.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

CLMT announced Income Distribution with DRIP.

"Final income distribution of 2.24 sen per CLMT Unit (of which 2.10 sen per CLMT Unit is taxable and 0.14 sen per CLMT Unit is non-taxable in the hands of the CLMT unitholders) for the period from 1 July 2023 to 31 December 2023 ("Final Income Distribution")"

Issue Price per Unit Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) 0.5261. Very nice.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

For the record, I entered 2024 with 46 stocks open. I have 16 losses. When I read about how others had won, it only strengthen my resolve to reflect what I did wrong. If you can't look at your losses honestly, then, stay away from markets.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@mini, @88, we all have battle scars, market is a harsh place. I am not exempted from losses too and when I have a loss, I love to read from others generous enough to share how they win and how I lost, because it means I still have lessons to learn. I never looked at those winners as rubbing salts. If one prioritizes comfort and cannot tolerate losses, then, stay away from DIY equity investments, instead, put your funds in EPF which pays well.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

The fact Ah Beng keep selling doesn't help.
ZHULIAN still have 155m Net Cash but it desperately need new ideas and new executions.
Clearly, by returning the cash to shareholders constantly indicates it doesn't know how to arrest the earnings decline. It has run out of ideas and execution capabilities.

This stock will be a classic high dividend trap. 13 sen / 1.57 looks very attractive 8% DY, but the coming year, 13 sen drops and eventually go down to 4 sen, and price will crash and that 8% DY disappears. This stock is just waiting to trap all these high yield chasers.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Avoid ZHULIAN. It's earnings cannot support current dividends. More dividend cuts and more price falls are coming.

EPS decline not over yet. FYE23 6.4 sen is lowest ever past 9 years. If next year drop to 6 sen, and if it exercise discipline in dividend payout, we could see more normal payout ratio of 67% i.e. future yearly dividend could only be 4%. 4% / 1.57 current price is only 2.5% Dividend Yield, i.e. worse than FD. So, ZHULIAN will try to soften the blow, but odds are very high, next year dividend will cut some more. It won't be 13 sen, but smaller.

Clearly, FD is the much better investment here than ZHULIAN.
Net Assets keep dropping fast too. Today its barely above RM1, but if it keeps paying out more dividends than it can earn, we may see Net Assets drop by 10-15 sen per year.

It's business model and business results desperately need to turn around, but how to beat a 9 year (or even longer) earnings decline?

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Not a good sign when the substantial shareholder - Berjaya Group - just sold 10.7 million shares too. When they want to sell, there's just no market big enough to accomodate. The trend is down still, rallies are likely to continue to be sold for a while.

RHB checks that traffic falling 30% is being generous. More likely it'll be much worse than 30%. Odds are this may just be the first stage of the fall after the first quarterly report. We will have plenty of time to accumulate later.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@speakup, well done on PAVREIT.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Yes it did. All time high. Looking good.

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3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

CLMT closed 61 sen. Nice. I'm relatively late in entering this REIT (a blessing), and this is one of the better performing REITS from a Total Return perspective in the past year. Beats MAYBANK (and MAYBANK beats my very conservative target returns of 9% p.a.). I first got a small entry position at 63 sen, but as price goes down, 80% of my purchases happen between 49.5 sen and 52 sen around March to August 2023, so, my average cost is 52 sen. Along the way, I received dividends to further lower the average cost down. Total returns ~ 20% or so in less than a year and from a REIT perspective, that's a real bonus.

Less typical than my other REIT experience, the majority of the gains from CLMT are price gains that happened quite quickly. When price dropped to 49-52 sen due to the rights placement in March 2023, I accumulated quietly and significantly when others were cursing the unfair rights placement at 49 sen that caused price to fall to around there.

Took some profits at 60 sen, as the gain is too fast for a REIT. Still holding 80% for longer term yields.

Pays to buy good quality REITS quietly at depressed prices when they are unpopular, when either nobody talks about them or when others are cursing them. Longer term price charts help pinpoint high probability long term decent entry levels.

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3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This is the reason why I say “Don’t chase”.
Lucky manage to sell significant amount at 1.4x to 1.5x. However still have slightly more than half unsold. Will be looking to buy back what’s sold at 1.1x and 1.0x (if it gets there).

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3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Thank-you for your interesting discussions.

Sharing my thoughts here - http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/02/bjfood.html

In summary, I have grave doubts about the resolution of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Won't be easy to resolve. As a result, the boycott is not likely to be lifted so easily. At the same time, we don't really know how sticky the current brands are, until we see the first quarterly impact result i.e. this coming mid Feb quarterly announcement. The first big fall to be reported, might not be the worst. Analysts are only starting to turn around their previous BUY/HOLD calls to SELL calls. Safer to wait until we see the exact impact to quarterly revenues and quarterly earnings / balance sheet / debts, etc.

My interest in this stock is for long term investing, rather than price trading, because my commitment does not allow me to look at the prices - I can sometimes view prices after market close and weekends, and definitely not interested in looking at prices when markets are open.

It may be a slightly above average stock, but I still need a very attractive price to make it comparable to MAYBANK benchmark.

Charts indicate 2 possible price magnet level i.e. 52 sen and 45.5 sen.

This is not an advise, as I have no position (yet). If you have a position and thinking to sell now to buy lower, I cannot advise here, as I have no such views.

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3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Having said that, one should not gamble too often. Once a year is not unreasonable. I've hit my gambling quota for 2024, so, no more gambling for me. Haha.

As for the averaging down plan, not a good idea. Not because the sums are small, but the mindset that it creates. Two problems with averaging down in a losing stock:

1. You monitor and risk getting emotionally invested. That can steer your mind to strange places.
2. My objective in gambling early in the year, is to remind me to stay away from gambling with the proof that it has provided me. Returning back to market a small amount to remind you of sound investing principles is worth the reminder.

Anyway, portfolio still made new all time highs since RAPID, so, it has no impact to my portfolio results, as it is one time and is tiny. A great reminder that gambling doesn't help ...

Anyway, i have a strategy which is to assume the market is closed for next 1-5 years. Let's see 1-5 years later. Until then, every day price quote is just noise, and something we are not really interested in doing anything else.

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3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@charlesT, if one has RM10,000,000 portfolio, 0.08% = RM8k which is reasonable gambling money.

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3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

HEIM closed RM25.9. +RM2.10! +8.82%!
Thank-you HEIM. Together with another 24 stocks closing in green, to offset my 12 reds, my portfolio has, yet again, made new all-time high today!
KLCI closed 1515.39. Hope many will enjoy new all time portfolio highs today too!