JCY, Notion, Dufu: How many physical hard disks needed in one Data Center, like Google's (case study)

Do we know for One Datacenter building, how many physical hard disks needed in one Data Center? How many physical hard disks that require to meet this massive physical hard disk across the globe?

Let's us use existing one of Google's data center in US as case study and do simple math calculation to estimate is potential as reference baseline

1 pc of HD = 16Terabyte

1 container rack = 16 TB hard drives x 4320 qty to a pallet x 21 chassis = 1.4 exabytes (equal to 1 x 4320 x 21 = 90,720pcs) physical HDD inside a container. This rack has a 6 sq/foot footprint, but require to used about 18sq/feet to estimate the space need to accommodate power, cooling, hot & cold isle space.

Now, for a standard each one Data center storage building require at least ~100,000 sq foot size on each data center (in this case like Google's one data center site location accommodate ~6 to 8 data center buildings), that mean 

100,000sq foot size for one data center building, 100,000 divide by 18sq/ft, then multiply by 90,720 physical HD in one rack

=  504Mil qtys of physical HDDs  

To be conservative, let take 70% of 504Mil = 352Mil of HDD require for each One data center building, that a massive explosive growth on HDD alone. 

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[Note: The number of physical hard disks needed in a data center like Google's can vary significantly based on a variety of factors such as the size of the data center, the storage capacity of each hard disk, the redundancy and fault tolerance requirements, the type of data being stored, and the specific infrastructure design being implemented]. Here I'm using the standard Google's one data center 100,000 sqft as baseline!

Since, Google, being one of the largest tech companies in the world, operates an extensive network of data centers globally to support its various services such as Google Search, Gmail, Google Cloud Platform, YouTube, etc. These data centers are known for their scale and efficiency.

As a result, it's important to note that the exact number of physical hard disks used by Google or any other large tech company is proprietary information and may not be publicly disclosed. Additionally, advancements in storage technology and infrastructure design can influence the number of hard disks needed in a data center over time].

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According to The “Data Center Market Report - Forecast (2023-2030)” by IndustryARC, dated Apr 27th' 2024

The Data Center market size is estimated to reach $418 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 9.6% during the forecast period 2023-2030. The advantages of Data Centers include hyper-scalability, sustainability and automation for modern business processes. It is set to propel the demand for Data Centers during the forecast period. The adoption of advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligent, Machine Learning, the Internet of Things (IoT), Cloud computing and Edge computing create immense Data Center market opportunities.

Now, imagine if across the globe, entire data center build starting 2024 till 2030 with CAGR 9.6% annually, starting 2024 till 2030 that will will be another 10,000 data centers new to be build on top of existing 10,978 available data center in the market now. 

With a whooping 89% grow of ~9,770 new data centers to be build in next 6years throughout the globe by 2030, that will be   

Total HDDs = 352Mil x 9,770 =  3,439,040,000,000 which mean in total of 3,439 billions of physical HDDs require once all data centers in the globe are ready, developed & fully operate by year 2030

The demand for HDD reach +1600% from year 2024 to 2029 mainly because of Data Center & AI.

For that, market will shortage of HDD/SDD chip for very long as there is no new player and selling price/profit of HDD increase by 10% - 20%, JCY factory production will increase from 50% OEE utilization to 80-90% operational, expected ready by end of 2024 gradually.

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A Question arise to me too, why does big data center corporate still prefer HDD 88% vs SDD 12%, all come to cost & capacity benefit factors

A comparison of HDDs to SSDs 

HDD:

Power Draw/Battery Life: More power draw, average 6 -7 watts and therefore used more battery

Cost: Only around $0.03 per gigabytes, very cheap (buying a 4TB model)

Capacity: Typically aroiund 500GB and 2TB max for notebook size drives; 10TB max for desktop, Enterprise 16TB for data center

SDD:

Power Draw/Battery Life: Less power draw, average 2 -3 watts, resulting in 30+ min battery boost

Cost: Expensive, average $0.25 to $0.30 per gigabyte (based on buying a 1TB drive) )

Capacity: Typically not larger than 1TB for notebook size drives; 4TB for desktop, Enterprise remain 4TB max (current SSD's technology restricted)

Anyhow, both HDDs & SDDs are complementary and important for all AI cloud & data center end-customer as their prefer larger HDD,SDD capacity storage unit due to better cost effective, faster, high durability + smaller size per rack storage space which benefit to 1st tier JCY, Notion & Dufu product margin per unit ship to their end-customers Western Digital & Seagate, Kioxia (Toshiba) both sides.

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What's are the projection of HDD, SDD volume shipment throughout year 2024 till 2029?

HDD, SDD volume shipment projection 2029

Then next Question arise, why Western Digital & Seagate capable to increase ASP price & adjustment will be frequent in future to their end-customer (ex: Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, other AI cloud enterprise customers etc), all due to sudden unplanned demand & lead to extended delivery lead times.

[Cited source from Trendforce, dated April 9th & 22th ' 2024]

'The demand for large-capacity HDD products driven by the artificial intelligence market has caused overall HDD prices to surge. According to the latest updates, American memory giant Western Digital confirmed for the first time on April 8th that there is a supply shortage for both HDD and SSD. They issued formal customer letters notifying of ongoing price adjustments for NAND Flash and hard drive products.

Western Digital stated that the demand for both flash memory and hard drive products has exceeded expectations, leading to supply constraints. These challenges in the electronics industry’s supply chain further affect availability. This quarter, they will continue to adjust prices for flash memory and hard drive products, with some changes taking immediate effect.

These updates apply across the company’s entire product portfolio, Western Digital & Seagate indicated that pricing adjustments will be frequent in the future. Additionally, the company’s ability to handle unplanned demand and orders is quite limited, so any order changes require early notification. They also anticipate that unplanned demand may lead to extended delivery lead times.

TechNews’ report further point out that, combining current market reports, the overall price increase for HDDs has accumulated between 10% to 20% from the third quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of this year, due to memory manufacturers implementing production reduction strategies aimed at quantity-based pricing.

Industry sources cited by TechNews’ report anticipate that the tight supply situation for large-capacity HDD products will continue into this quarter and potentially extend throughout the year. Specifically, HDD prices are expected to continue rising in the second quarter of this year, with an anticipated increase of 5% to 10%.'

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