The arm chair analyst and the freebies dispenser...are they for real ?

Very early on in my working career ...30 years back... .I remember receiving this "hot share tip " from a well meaning friend and without giving second thoughts sunk my life savings , hoping to make some quick returns..as it turned out ,I lost most of it in double quick time ....I remember getting excited on the buy date as the prices seem to move up only to fall back and then way below cost as the due date approached...like most novice punters I panicked ,sold all the shares and gave my friend a good scolding...I found out much later that he got burnt himself and that hot tip was gotten from a free seminar he attended.!

Fast forward to the present....not much has changed...except that the composite index is now around 1860 compared to about 400 then..!...it bewilders me when my friends and even some experienced traders / investors in current times still choose the "easy " way out to make fast money...not keen to do any research or at the very least ask a learned adviser before jumping in on seemingly free tips obtained from the hundreds of blogsites or free seminars...don't get me wrong...some of them do make handsome gains..only to lose back later ...worse they may lose their capital as well as I did back then..one peculiar remark many followers have made is that the share tip is "usually " accurate on the first hour or first day and only turn bad subsequently..without even considering the "accuracy" ie share price goes up could very well be the combined buying frenzy of the followers on receipt of the "tip " ! and not due to strong fundamentals or impending positive developments ..For obvious reasons once the buying tapers of prices naturally fall and those without a chair once the music stops end up paying dearly...There are of course professionally run seminars or training courses but I doubt they come free....On the flip side shady ones could be used as bait to trap the gullible retailers while they exit unwanted shares at a good price...

Speaking of freebies , the other category that one should be wary of is the arm chair analyst..Though he/she may have good intentions more often than not free advice is freely dispensed without an indepth thought of repercussions to the novice retailer..eg overly bullish just on the strength of a strong Dow performance or vice versa...one only need to sit in front of a live trading terminal for a full day to realise actual realtime stock performance is a net effect of non quantifiable permutations of factors affecting players ..not unlike a battlefield where the soldiers need to think and save his neck if not trying to beat the foe in question..main factors like developing news flow (not historical like the morning papers ) ,company announcements, economic and political changes and so forth will alter the trading environment by the seconds literally...then there is the quantifiable statistics like quantum of due date contra selling.broker restrictions .authority queries to name a few ,all of which have bearing on the individual stocks and broad market...perhaps it may be pertinent to check whether these freebie dispensers ,either a stock broking house research analyst or some broking head has actually bought or sold a single share in his life...With this in mind it is imperative one does need to go back to basics..ie do some homework..develop an independent mind and avoid taking short cuts...

Remember the old adage...There is no free lunch !

Thank you

Chris Choo

https://www.facebook.com/chris.choo.927