No nonsense

SERBADK - Using common sense and why is it undervalued?

JensenChin
Publish date: Tue, 24 Dec 2019, 02:38 AM

I will not dive into the numbers, as there have been many analysis being done by many analysts.

I shall address a few concerns raised by many individuals, and explain why it is not valid:

1- The company's gearing and debt is very high, have cash flow problem

Use your common sense, this company is experiencing high growth. Debt financing obtained were mostly used for cash generating/accretive assets and companies and for projects that span within 2 years. 

The real concern should be whether there is a debt mismatch (Medium term financing for medium term projects) and whether Project value over total debt plus interest (10bil project value vs 2bil debt).

In both cases, there is no concern at all. 
 
The real concern is whether successful synergies can be created across all acquisitions to create or enhance the value to the group. 

Use your common sense, your living in a life full of debts (housing debts, auto debts, personal debts). Does it mean that you have a cash flow problem? The true value is how well you can perform or enhance your value to increase your income.

Many successful companies in the past have had experience high growth phase. How many of those companies were 'net cash' companies during their growth phase?

Can you find an oil and gas company with high net cash or 'owner earnings' but yet is experiencing high growth? 

 

2- The company's share price cannot rise despite being undervalued

 'Something is rotten or weird' because they have 'cash flow problems' or 'owner earnings problem', as claimed by some individual.

First, If every company in the world must have good 'owner earnings' to be not 'rotten or weird', then we are living in a ' perfect world'. 
Second, doing a 'surface analysis' and claiming that a company is 'rotten or weird' is plain stupid.

There are many reasons why a share may not rise despite being undervalued, we cannot jump into conclusions.

It may take months or years for the true value to be reflected. I don't know the answer as to why the share price cannot rise, but it is surely undervalued, for sure.

 

 

 

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