Yesterday, AirAsia announced its 2QFY16 preliminary operating statistics, delivering strong load factor at 85.5% (1QFY16 at 85.6%). Its traffic volume saw a 12.2% YoY growth to 16.8bn revenue-passenger-kilometres (RPKs) on the back of increased in passengers carried by 12.2% YoY. However, the operational numbers was flat QoQ. AirAsia is scheduled to release its 2QFY16 results and passenger yield data on 29th August 2016. We maintain our Neutral call on AirAsia, with target price of RM2.36, pegged on 8x FY17F EPS. Our target price is based on enlarged share capital, including the proposed share placement to Tune Live Sdn Bhd.

Malaysia (MAA) operating statistics. Malaysia AirAsia (MAA) increased in passengers’ carried by +10.0% YoY to 6.55m, though its seat capacity was flat YoY (+1.4%) at 7.54m. Available-seat-kilometres (ASK) increased by +9.8% YoY to 10.0bn and revenue-passenger-kilometres (RPK) increased by +18.6% YoY to 8.6bn. Meanwhile, passenger loads remain strong at 86.8% during the quarter compared to 80.1% in 2QFY16. However, QoQ operational numbers was flat with load at 85.6%. (Table 2).

Associates’ performance. Thailand (TAA) remains strong with load factor at 83.0% on the back of passenger volume and capacity growth YoY increased by 17.7% and 12.9% respectively, due to new route commencements, additional route frequencies and 6 additional aircraft was added to its fleet. Indonesia (IAA)’s load factor QoQ improved by 3.1ppts to 83.1% and passengers volume increased by 3.9%. Strong load was recorded in Philippines (PAA) at 90.8%, with passenger carried up by 3.0% YoY and seat capacity decreased by 8.9%. (Table 3-6)

Pending more details on yield data and results for 2QFY16, we expect passenger fares in 2Q to remain strong due to travel demand recovery. Overall, 2QFY16 operational numbers was stronger than a year before, but flat QoQ. We maintain our Neutral call with target price of RM2.36, pegged on 8x FY17F EPS, as we believe the positives have already been priced-in amid the continued run-up in share prices. Our target price is based on enlarged share capital, including the proposed share placement to Tune Live Sdn Bhd which is expected to complete by this quarter.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 27 Jul 2016