Sslee blog
HENGYUAN: Can Hengyuan pay better dividend?
Dear all,
If your look into Hengyuan Q4 2017 financial report.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5705361
- Inventories RM 1,110,315,000
- Trade Receivable RM 1,080,401,000
- Other receivable and prepayments RM 166,296,000
- Deposits with licensed banks RM 210,000,000
- Bank Balance RM 302,907,000
- Trade and other payable RM 601,497,000
- Borrowing: Non Current RM 1,125,905,000 Current RM 79,103,000
Note: A19 Currency Profile of borrowing
USD as at 31.12.2017 RM equivalent: RM 1,205,008,000.
USD exchange rate on 31/12/2017 1 USD = 4.0592
This was announced on 23-1-2018. Highlight below.
“The facilities are segregated into a term loan and a revolving credit line. The term loan will be utilised towards refinancing HRC’s existing term loan and also to partially finance its planned capital expenditure. The revolving credit facility will support the company’s working capital needs. The term loan will be repaid in instalments throughout the tenure of the 5 year facility. Approval for the facilities was received from Bank Negara Malaysia on 22 January 2018.”
This mean from the date Hengyuan refinance the USD loans with RM loans Hengyuan will not have any mark to market gain/loss in the USD loan to equivalent RM anymore.
Assume actual refinancing loans and repayment on USD loans was done on 1st Feb 2018.
USD exchange rate at 1-2-2018 1 USD =3.9004.
If we base on exchange rate different at 31-12-2017 and 1-2-2018. This Q1 2018 will have USD loan realized gain of RM 1,205,008,000 X ((4.0592-3.9004)/4.0592))= RM47, 141,128.
I believe the S&P long term contract signed with Shell is base of Petrol/Diesel pricing = Crude oil Price + Crack Spread. Crude oil price and Crack Spread will be base on mutually agreed publication available to public and settlement on monthly basis with weightage average of daily price and spread. Will seek board confirmation on the actual formula and which mutual agreed publication in reference to crude oil price and Crack spread? What is the breakeven crack spread?
This S&P contract was agree upon when the petrol and diesel retail price was fixed by Government on monthly basis since then it had been changed to weekly basis hence perhaps Hengyuan have the right to renegotiate to weekly settlement with credit term of 10 days instead of 1 month. If this is done then the trade receivable will reduce from RM 1.08 billion to 370 million an addition cash in bank of 710 million.
With the support of own jetty and pipeline and 78 refined product storage tanks and ability to import the refined products from China to fulfill contract with Shell. (As what they already plan to do with booked refine products at preferred rate during the major turnaround shutdown in Aug 2018 from 45 to 90 days max) Perhaps Hengyuan can reduce their inventory from 16 days cycle to 11 days cycle. Hence inventory can be reduced from RM 1.11 billion to 763 million an addition cash in bank of RM 347 million.
Hope this will answer everyone question whether Hengyuan have the ability to pay better dividend or Not?
Thank you. Have a nice week end.
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1 person likes this. Showing 50 of 63 comments
U NEED TO UNDERSTAND THIS LOH....!!
THE LAND AND PLANT & MACHINERY THE VALUE ABOUT RM 600M, BUT HENGYUAN BORROW RM 2 BILLION, THE BANK MUST HAVE DONE ALOT OF DUE DILIGENCE ON THE FREECASHFLOW AND BE CONFIDENCE TO FINANCE WHAT THEY WANTED LOH...!!
IT IS NOT PURE MONETIZATION OF ASSETS OF HENGYUAN BCOS IT IS ONLY RM 600M MAH....!!
Posted by probability > Apr 14, 2018 06:17 PM | Report Abuse
mneo...u politely ask like this..then sure i like to respond la..
Its very easy to justify loan from Banks as it was merely refinancing of the existing debt in USD to RM.
Note that HY already have huge surplus cash and the have huge inventory of oil as an assurance to payback the Debt incase things do not go well in the future.
Trading is still a business to satisfy the supply needs of Shell retail in Malaysia.
But the margin would be way thinner. Though extremely thin but being a fixed value (say 1 USD/brl + transfer price from china at DDP terms) like how retailers have...
Banks would have no worries giving them the loan ma.
2018-04-15 11:54
IN CONCLUSION...PROBABILITY IS REALLY MISINFORMED LOH...!!
REMEMBER THIS LOH....!!
PETRON RATED CAPACITY 90K BPD BUT OPERATING MAX 45K BPD WHY LEH ??
BCOS OUTDATED THE LAST UPGRADE IN 1999 LOH...!!
ONLY 50% OF RATED
THE MD TOLD RAIDER THAT;
HENGYUAN RATED CAPACITY 156K BPD BUT HENGYUAN CAN OPERATE UPTO 125K BPD MAX MAH.....!!
THIS IS ABOUT 80% OF RATED CAPACITY LOH...!!
BCOS ITS REFINERY NEWER THE LAST UPGRADE IS 2013, JUST THAT THEY HAD NOT COMPLY WITH EURO 4 AND 5 FOR RON 95 YET LOH...!!
AS FOR RON 97 AND RON 98 HENGYUAN DO COMPLY WITH EURO 4 LOH....BCOS HENGYUAN HAS ABILITY TO PRODUCE A LIMITED VOLUME WITHIN THE PLANT CONSTRAINT.
BUT RON 95 NO EURO 4 BCOS CAPACITY TOO BIG THATS WHY NEED UPGRADE LOH..!!
Posted by probability > Apr 14, 2018 07:21 PM | Report Abuse
In my opinion,
Hengyuan will be operating at half - 50% their current capacity, i,e 5 Million barrels instead of 10 Million per QTR after the upgrade for Euro 4 Gasoline.
This is just like how the Petron PD refinery operates.
(there is a technical reason for this which will be revealed later, right now i encourage all reader to guess & reason this them self).
2018-04-15 11:54
RUBBISH LOH...!!
WHERE IS THE PART THAT THEY SAY HENGYUAN CANNOT HANDLE SAUDI AND DUBAI CRUDE LEH ??
Posted by probability > Apr 14, 2018 09:03 PM | Report Abuse
Hengyuan do not have the ability to handle high sulfur crude liao...it cannot handle heavier crude than Brent.
all these are very much sweeter than Saudi/Dubai Crude liao:
The refinery uses a wide range of crudes
Tapis, Bach, Ho, Oman, Labuan, Minas, Murban, Bintulu, Ruby, Bintulu Condensate, Kekwa, XiJiang, Widuri, Cinta
2018-04-15 11:55
U R TALKING TOO MUCH THEORY LOH...HEAVY...LIGHT ...SOUR....SWEET END OF THE DAY IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO ACTUAL REFINERY MARGIN LOH...!!
HENGYUAN IS ONE OF THE BEST MARGIN REFINERY, I CAN FIND LOH...!!
I THINK U MISSED THE IMPORTANT POINT LOH...!!
WHETHER I USE...HEAVY, LIGHT, SOUR OR SWEET CRUDE IT DOES NOT MATTER MAH...THE MOST IMPORTANT MY GROSS PROFIT MARGIN MUST BE HIGH IN ORDER TO BE EFFICIENT LOH...!!
HENGYUAN GROSS MARGIN IS HIGH LOH....!!
Posted by probability > Apr 14, 2018 09:24 PM | Report Abuse
gator...does not matter which year...its the type of oil they can handle...non of the oil listed there falls under heavy and sour category
2018-04-15 11:56
BASED ON HENGYUAN CULMULATIVE 4TH QTR 2017 ANNOUNCEMENT....HENGYUAN GROSS PROFIT MARGIN OF 12.6% CONSIDER HIGH LOH.....!!
THE HIGH GROSS PROFIT IS A COMPONENT THAT DETERMINE THE EFFICIENCY OF UR REFINERY LOH...!!
THOSE CRACK SPREAD....IS JUST A GENERAL GUIDE LOH...!!
U CANNOT FIND ANY OTHER CRACK SPREAD OTHER THAN BRENT LOH....!!
2018-04-15 11:57
TO PROVE RAIDER IS NOT BULSHITING THAT HENGYUAN IS VERY EFFICIENT....LET RAIDER SHOW U LOH....!!
BRENT MKT PRICE.............USD 72.58
ADD CRACK SPREAD............USD 7.2
THEREOTICAL SELLING PRICE..USD 79.78
THUS UR MACRO GROSS MARGIN IS ONLY 9% LOH BUT HENGYUAN GIVE U A GROSS MARGIN OF 12.6% FOR THE WHOLE YR OF 2017 MAH....!!
DON FORGET THAT HENGYUAN IN DERIVING THE GROSS MARGIN THERE ARE ADDITIONAL COST LIKE DIRECT EXPENSE, DIRECT LABOUR, DIRECT SELLING EXPENSES, SHIPPING CHARGE TO THE COST OF SALES.
WHEREAS THE ABOVE THEORY DISCLOSURE ONLY DEAL WITH BRENT CRUDE PRICE AND CRACK SPREAD MAH...!!
12.6% V 9%....THAT MEANS HENGYUAN GROSS MARGIN IS MUCH SUPERIOR LOH...!!
sted by probability > Apr 14, 2018 09:38 PM | Report Abuse
and thats why HY will lose to RAPID and China refineries who uses Dubai Crude which sell at 4 USD/brl discount...against Brent
that was the whole point of discussion on the crude they used
2018-04-15 11:58
THE QUESTION IS WHAT PROBABILITY KNOWS....THAT RAIDER DON LEH ??
I BET ALMOST NONE LOH....!!
WHY ??
RAIDER BESIDE RESEARCH ON HENGYUAN, RAIDER ALSO COVER PETRONAS, PETRON TALK TO THE INDUSTRIAL PEOPLE, CONSUMER, THE TECHNICAL PEOPLE, THE INSIDE MANAGEMENT OF THE COMPANIES LOH....!!
THATS WHY RAIDER CONFIDENT LOH, THUS , DO NOT BE CHICKEN OUT....BY PEOPLE CLAIMING THEY HAVE CRUCIAL INFO LOH....!!
HENGYUAN AT RM 9.28...IS ALREADY CHEAP ENOUGH TO ABSORP ANY UNFORSEEN BAD BUSINESS RISK LOH....!!
MOST IMPORTANTLY HENGYUAN CASHFLOW IS DAMN STRONG LOH....!!
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE LENDING BANK TOO LOH...!!
HENGYUAN MANAGEMENT ARE DAMN GOOD TOO, FROM THE COST SAVINGS AND CONTROL THEY HAVE PROVEN LOH....!!
JUST FOR AN EXAMPLE THE UPGRADE OF CAPEX OF RM 700M, THE PAYBACK PERIOD IS ONLY 1 YR LOH.....!!
WHICH COMPANY CAN GIVE U SUCH A PROFITABLE RETURN WITHIN 1 YR LEH ??
Posted by probability > Apr 14, 2018 03:51 PM | Report Abuse
filidon...i reveal crucial information also must be some benefit for me ma....
i need to be able to short before i reveal that....
kindly share how retailers can short please...
2018-04-15 11:59
REMEMBER WHAT THE CHINAMAN CHAIRMAN SAYS LEH ??
"REMEMBER THE CHINAMAN CHAIRMAN TOLD RAIDER, THAT HE IS NOT INTERESTED ALL THOSE MKT THING LIKE BONUS ISSUE LOH...HE JUST WANT HENGYUAN TO OPERATE EFFICIENTLY AND MAKE GOOD PROFITS AND PAYS GOOD DIV TO REWARD SHAREHOLDERS LOH...!!"
THUS BUYING BACK SHARE EVEN IT IS CHEAP, IS NOT THEIR BUSINESS OBJECTIVE, THEY WILL LEAVE IT TO THE MKT LOH...!!
THATS WHY KYY BENEFITED AND TO SOME EXTENT RAIDER BENEFITED TOO LOH....!!
Posted by lanjiolang > Apr 14, 2018 03:56 PM | Report Abuse
anyone know why when HRC drop to 6.15, HRC itself didn't buy back his own share but only KYY announced to buy back in this so-called cheap price? don't tell me that your answer is because HRC need to reserve money for upgrading. If HRC need to reserve money for upgrading, why you all still expect for special/final dividend? I hope raider can answer this question for me. Thank.
2018-04-15 11:59
Posted by stockraider > Apr 14, 2018 04:24 PM | Report Abuse X
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH TOO LOH, I HAVE SPOKEN ENOUGH AND DONE MY PART LOH.....!!
IF U CHOSE TO SELL CHEAP CHEAP IS NONE OF MY BUSINESS LOH...!!
DO NOT BELIEVE PEOPLE THAT TELL U THAT THEY HAVE CRUCIAL INFO BUT NOT REVEALING TO U LOH....!!
UNDERSTAND THIS LOH....!!
IF PEOPLE GOT CRUCIAL INFO DON WANT TO REVEAL TO TELL U, THEY WILL JUST KEEP QUIET LOH...!!
THEY DON NEED TO TELL U, I GOT CRUCIAL INFO BUT I DON WANT TO REVEAL TO U LOH.....!!
I WISH U GOOD LUCK LOH.....!!
2018-04-15 12:00
ASK YOURSELF WHETHER HENGYUAN AT RM 9.28 REBOUNDING FROM RM 6.00 LOW IS IT STILL THAT CHEAP LEH ???
THE ANS IS YES IT IS CHEAP LOH....!!
ANALYSIS OF HENGYUAN
2005
PRICE RANGE RM 8.50 TO RM 12.30
EPS RM 1.74
2006
PRICE RANGE RM 9.55 TO RM 11.20
EPS RM 0.86
2007
PRICE RANGE RM 9.50 TO RM 11.60
EPS RM 1.98
2008
PRICE RANGE RM 7.95 TO RM 11.80
EPS RM (1.10} LOSS
2009
PRICE RANGE RM 8.05 TO RM 11.30
EPS RM 0.97
2010
PRICE RANGE RM 10.40 TO RM 11.00
EPS RM 0.36
2011
PRICE RANGE RM 9.11 TO RM 11.20
EPS { RM 0.41} LOSS
2012
PRICE RANGE RM 8.38 TO RM 10.38
EPS RM { 0.32 } LOSS
2013
PRICE RANGE RM 6.40 TO RM 11.20
EPS { RM 0.52} LOSS
IF U LOOK AT THE TABLE ABOVE HENGYUAN HAS BEEN ALWAYS TRADING CLOSE TO RM 9.00 & ABOVE LEVEL FROM 2005 TO 2010 LEVEL. THE RANGE IS RM 8.50 TO RM 12.30 AVERAGING ABOVE RM 10.00 LOH....!!
EVEN 3 CONSECUTIVE YR OF LOSSES FROM 2011 TO 2013 HENGYUAN STILL TRADE AT RM 6.40 TO RM 11.30 STILL AVERAGING ABOVE RM 9.00 MOST OF THE TIME LOH....!!
AFTER SHPC TAKEOVER OF SHELL AND RENAMED HENGYUAN VERY GOOD PROFIT HAS BEEN REPORTED LOH....!!
AT SUCH A GOOD PROFIT BEING REPORTED BASED ON CONSECUTIVE 3 YRS AVERAGE EPS OF HENGYUAN IS ABOVE RM 1.77 LOH...!!
Posted by stockraider > Apr 13, 2018 04:40 PM | Report Abuse X
the fruits is already being reap loh...!!
thats why hengyuan $$$$$$$$$$ profit mah....!!
TO ANS HOW GOOD IS HENGYUAN;
SURELY HENGYUAN A GOOD CO....WHEN EPS VERY GOOD MAH...!!
Remember Hengyuan average 3 yrs profit are as follow loh....!!
eps
2015......rm 1.17
2016..... rm 1.11
2017..... rm 3.03
AVERAGE 3 YR EPS PA RM 1.77 LOH....!!
THUS THE SHARE PRICE TODAY AT RM 9.28 IS DAMN CHEAP LOH....!!
JUST GIVE U A FEEL HOW CHEAP , WE COMPARE TO NESTLE LOH...!!
2005 HENGYUAN AVG SHARE PRICE RM 9.00 V NESTLE AVG RM 24.50
2008 HENGYUAN AVG SHARE PRICE RM 9.49 V NESTLE AVG RM 27.5O
2011 HENGYUAN AVG SHARE PRICE RM 10.00 V NESTLE AVG RM 50.00
2018 NOW HENGYUAN SHARE PRICE RM 9.28 V NESTLE RM 149.00
DON FORGET HENGYUAN 2017 EARN RECORD EPS OF RM 3.03 EVEN EXCEED NESTLE EPS OF RM 2.75 IN 2017 LOH...!!
FROM THE ABOVE ANALYSIS RAIDER HOPE U UNDERSTAND HOW MUCH TREMENDOUS VALUE HENGYUAN STILL HAVE AND SCOPE OF SUPERB TREMENDOUS APPRECIATION GOOD FORWARD LOH....!!
DO NOT LET CONMAN AND NAYSAYERS CON U OUT OF YOUR POSITION ON HENGYUAN LOH.......!! AT THIS PRICE RM 9.28 IT IS STILL A SCREAMING BUY LOH..!!
2018-04-15 12:01
JUST COMPARE LIGHT TO LIGHT LOH....!!
YES THERE ARE 1 OFF GAIN IN 2017....BUT EQUALLY THERE ARE MANY MANY 1 OFF LOSSES OF HENGYUAN DUE TO EARLIER IMPAIRMENT TOO LOH...!!
SO RAIDER USE THE EASY WAY OF COMPARING LIGHT TO LIGHT WITHOUT DOING ADJ JUST TO EXPEDITE AND NOT WASTING TIME LOH....!!
Posted by kenlee > Apr 14, 2018 03:43 PM | Report Abuse
stockretard a.k.a stockraider, there is 1 off gain in Q3 2017, kindly refer the quarter report. dont be a fool and trying to fool othe
2018-04-15 12:02
Can hengyuan really pays more dividend leh ??
REMEMBER THE CHINAMAN CHAIRMAN TOLD RAIDER, THAT HE IS NOT INTERESTED ALL THOSE MKT THING LIKE BONUS ISSUE LOH...HE JUST WANT HENGYUAN TO OPERATE EFFICIENTLY AND MAKE GOOD PROFITS AND PAYS GOOD DIV TO REWARD SHAREHOLDERS LOH...!!
IT IS KAMBING....IT IS COMING LOH...!!
THAT MEANS HENGYUAN IS A POTENTIAL GOOD CORP GOVERNANCE MULTINATIONAL COMPANY IN THE LEAGUE OF NESTLE, DLADY, F&N, AJINOMOTO, CARLSBERG, HEIM WHERE THEY NEVER GIVE SHARE BONUS SHARE BUT PAYS VERY GOOD DIV LOH..!!
THIS TYPE OF CO TRADE AT PE 25X TO 50X TODAY LOH....!!
THE GREAT POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIATION IS THERE BCOS HENGYUAN NOW PE ONLY 3X MAH....!!
JUST LOOK AT A CONSERVATIVE PE 16X....THAT MEANS 5X APPRECIATION LOH...!!
THATS WHY RAIDER SAYS RM 22.00 TO RM 42.00 IS ACHIEVABLE WITHIN 3 YS LOH....!!
WHAT IS HENGYUAN RM 700 MILLION UPGRADES LEH ??
HENGYUAN HAS MORE THAN RM 510 MILLION CASH IN HAND MAH....!!
ON TOP IT HAS RAISED MORE THAN USD 410 MILLION WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO FINANCE THE RM 700M UPGRADE LOH....!!
THAT MEAN....HENGYUAN CAN USE PART OF ITS RM 510 MILLION CASH IN BANK TO PAY DIV LOH....!!
ALSO THE SUSTAINABLE FRECASHFLOW OF HENGYUAN EXCEED RM 1.0 BILLION PA MAH.....!!
WITH THIS TYPE OF CASH FIRING POWER....INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY COMFORTABLE LOH.....!!
YES IT IS REAL LOH...HENGYUAN SPEND RM 700M BUT PETRONAS NEED TO SPEND RM 64 BILLION AND PETRON NEED TO SPEND RM 14 BILLION LOH...!!
HENGYUAN IS DEFINITELY THE MOST COMPETITIVE REFINERY IN MSIA LOH..!!
Posted by stockraider > Apr 13, 2018 10:57 AM | Report Abuse X
Remember 2 sen div is just starter or apetiser loh....!!
Div easily rm 0.20 to rm 0.30 per share coming loh....!!
do not let conman con u loh....!!
Below are example of misinformed fake news loh...!!
Posted by Lee Kohl > Apr 14, 2018 12:22 AM | Report Abuse
SSlee, HY has 2b loan, how to pay div. How about you ask them to pay "GOODWILL Dividend" that is more likely to happen!!wakakah.....!!cheers guys happy weeken
2018-04-15 12:02
THE DIV CAMPAIGN BY SSLEE ASK FOR RM 0.435 DIV PER SHARE LOH...!!
IF THIS DIV IS APPROVED IN THE AGM, HENGYUAN WILL BE ABLE TO JOIN THE LEAGUE OF BLUECHIPS, WHERE A RERATING TO PE 16X....IS STILL CONSIDER BELOW NORM CONSIDERING MOST CO....HAS PE ABOVE 20X IN THIS CATEGORY LOH...!!
Dear Sir/Madam,
REQUISITION TO MOVE AND VOTE ON RESOLUTIONS REQUIRING SPECIAL NOTICE UNDER SECTION 322 OF THE COMPANIES ACT 2016 AT THE 59TH HENGYUAN AGM
I, ____________ Malaysia Identity Card Number: __________ holder of HENGYUAN share (Co-requisitors of no less than 50 voting members) hereby give notice of at least twenty-eight (28) days before the 59th HENGYUAN AGM under Section 322 of the Companies Act 2016 to move the below resolutions under Section 323 (2)(b) {at least fifty members who have a relevant right to vote and hold share in the company on which there has been paid up an average sum, per member, of at least five hundred ringgit} at the 59th HENGYUAN AGM and to vote (FOR/AGAINST) the resolutions with or without modification:
1. To approve a final single tier dividend of 43.5 cents per share in respect of the financial year end 31 December 2017.
2. To approve a formal dividend policy of at least allocating 15% of the Company’s profit after tax, excluding exceptional items will be distributed to its shareholders as dividend payment.
Please circulate to HENGYUAN Shareholders of such notices of Resolutions in the same manner and at the same time as it gives notices of the 59th HENGYUAN AGM. (Section 322 (3) or Section 323 (2))
Yours Sincerely,
2018-04-15 12:03
REMEMBER WHY BIGGEST WEIGHTAGE TO RECENT YEARS LOH...!!
why not 2008 leh ??
Raider says Old data outdated loh....!!
Ask yourself chow kiau tiau in 2008 how much leh ??
Rm 3.00 to Rm 4.00 and today Rm 5.50 to Rm 6.00 mah...!!
So how to use old data leh ??
if a chowkiautiau fellow use old data 2008....to charge old price like in 2008 rm 3.00 per plate sure lose monies mah...!!
Thats why raider always say use latest data like 2015 to 2017 as a guide loh...it reflect the current operating environment & conditions loh...!!
Also Just ask yourself 2008....double storey link house in bandar utama cost how much ?? About Rm 350k loh...!!
Today 2018 selling how much ??
Rm 1.1 million loh....!!
Can the developer sell to u at 2008 price of Rm 350k ??
Sure cannot loh....!!
Use ur brain to think lah....!!
BTW SURELY THERE IS A CONFLICT OF INTEREST MAH....!!
IF U WANT MU TO WIN....SURELY U R SUPPORTER OF MU MAH...!!
SURELY HENGYUAN A GOOD CO....WHEN EPS VERY GOOD MAH...!!
Remember Hengyuan average 3 yrs profit are as follow loh....!!
eps
2015......rm 1.17
2016..... rm 1.11
2017..... rm 3.03
AVERAGE 3 YR EPS PA RM 1.77 LOH....!!
LIKE THAT ALSO DON UNDERSTAND MEH ??
WHY ??
THIS IS WHY 3 YRS LOH....!!
EXPLAIN BELOW MAH....!!
posted by stockraider > Apr 12, 2018 05:36 PM | Report Abuse X
Remember Hengyuan average 3 yrs profit are as follow loh....!!
eps
2015......rm 1.17
2016..... rm 1.11
2017..... rm 3.03
average 3 yrs pa eps...rm 1.77 mah....!!
Why 3 yrs cycle as measurement leh ??
Bcos every 3 yrs shutdown for statutory maintenance mah...!!
The last shutdown was 2015....3 yrs ago still make eps Rm 1.17 mah...!!
That time average crack spread only USD 5 today it exceed USD 7 to 9 mah....!!
The business environment very good loh...!!
Based on average 3 yr sustainable EPS of Rm 1.77...exceeding Rm 12.00 in short term...no issue loh...!!
2018-04-15 12:03
Posted by stockraider > Apr 14, 2018 12:12 PM | Report Abuse X
U BOLOH LOH....!!
WHY WANT SHELL THE BEST CUSTOMER OF HENGYUAN PURCHASE FROM PETRONAS THE BIGGEST ENEMY OF SHELL AND HENGYUAN LEH ???
PERGILAH....NO BUSINESS SENSE LOH....!!
Posted by dragonslayer > Apr 14, 2018 12:09 PM | Report Abuse
Aiyo chicken monk...shell can purchased crude oil from petronas...why..cannot purchase refined products from petronas new plant....talk BS leh....aiyoyo...Bullshit.....wakakaka...kikiki
2018-04-15 12:04
Posted by stockraider > Apr 14, 2018 02:52 PM | Report Abuse X
WHAT TYPE OF FUCK THIS PROBABILITY IS SAYING LEH ??
AS IF HE KNOWS ALOT....WHEN NO ONE ELSE KNOWS LOH....!!
OF COURSE THE UPGRADE THERE IS NO INCREASE IN CAPACITY MAH, HENGYUAN WILL BE SPENDING RM 700 MILLION BUT PEOPLE LIKE PETRONAS AND PETRON WILL BE SPENDING RM 64 BILLION AND RM 14 BILLION RESPECTIVELY, SURELY IT IS REASONABLE AND ACCEPTABLE THERE IS NO INCREASE IN CAPACITY LOH...!!
BUT THERE IS NO DECREASE IN CAPACITY EITHER. AFTER THE UPGRADE MAH...!!
HENGYUAN IS STILL THE MOST COST EFFECTIVE REFINERY IN MSIA MAH...!!
IT IS NO WONDER THIS PAPER FUCK THIS PROBABILITY GIVING SUCH FAKE NEWS LOH....!!
Posted by probability > Apr 14, 2018 01:44 PM | Report Abuse
Mr. Koon....i try to give you good story (ideas) to tell why u disposed (later execution)...
(1) recently the crude oil price had risen to unprecedented level since the drop in 2015....this had deteriorated refining margin...and knowing market is forward looking...u had decided to dispose all..
(2) RAPID is coming online very rapidly....
(3) u realized why not u just realize this 50% gain....
coz you catched it at exactly RM6....and RM 9 is such a FAT PROFIT which only comes once in 85 years...
(4) really plenty more reasons u can give one...i am sure..
Posted by probability > Apr 14, 2018 02:03 PM | Report Abuse
actually this realization is a very sad day to me.....
as the fact essentially means i will never be an investor of HY till the upgrade is successful and productions are established.
Now the fun part is only about shorting HY...
lets see if such opportunity arise.
...................................................
guys, kindly share how retailers can short HY
Thank You.
Posted by probability > Apr 14, 2018 12:25 PM | Report Abuse
about to report a very bad news soon....no capacity rise after upgrade....most likely have to run at a reduced throughput.
2018-04-15 12:05
posted by stockraider > Apr 14, 2018 09:54 AM | Report Abuse X
CORRECTLOH....IF U CANNOT GET LOANS U SHOULD WORRY LOH.....!!
THE BANKS WILLING TO LEND RM 2 BILLION TO HENGYUAN INDICATES AND CONFIRMED THE CASHFLOW OF HENGYUAN IS EXTREMELY GOOD LOH...!!
REMEMBER CO LIKE TENAGA AND MAXIS HAS HUGE BORROWING, EXCEEDING RM 30 BILLION BUT THE COMPANY PAYS GOOD DIV LOH....!!
WHY THEY CAN DO IT ?? BCOS OF GOOD STRONG CASHFLOW LOH....!!
HENGYUAN IS A COMPANY WITH VERY GOOD STRONG CASHFLOW LOH...!!
Posted by John_Lee > Apr 14, 2018 09:45 AM | Report Abuse
Lee Kohl,
A company’s capability to pay dividends depends on the company’s profitabilty and cash flows. Loans are part and parcel of running a business. Borrowings is not a bad word in business.
Hengyuan is a capital intensive business. It is only logical that a big capital intensive business has a sizeable loan.
Posted by Lee Kohl > Apr 14, 2018 12:22 AM | Report Abuse
SSlee, HY has 2b loan, how to pay div. How about you ask them to pay "GOODWILL Dividend" that is more likely to happen!!wakakah.....!!cheers guys happy weekend.
Posted by paperplane > Apr 14, 2018 09:48 AM | Report Abuse
If you can't get loan, then thts even more worrying.
2018-04-15 12:06
Posted by stockraider > Apr 14, 2018 10:23 AM | Report Abuse X
HIGH OIL PRICE DOES NOT MEAN GOOD OR BAD TO HENGYUAN LOH....!!
AS HENGYUAN IS JUST A REFINER...U BUY HIGH CRUDE TO PROCESS....U SELL HIGH PETROL PRICE LOH.....!!
U JUST PASS ON THE COST MAH....!!
BUT ONE THING...IS FOR SURE....INCREASING OIL PRICE....MEANS HIGHER INVENTORY GAIN FOR HENGYUAN LOH....!!
HENGYUAN SIT ON HUGE INVENTORY MAH....!!
Posted by trulyinvest > Apr 14, 2018 10:19 AM | Report Abuse
High oil px no good to refiners. As stated in petronm quarterly report. Refined products does not go up as fast as crude oil. Laging
2018-04-15 12:06
WHAT IS HENGYUAN RM 700 MILLION UPGRADES LEH ??
HENGYUAN HAS MORE THAN RM 510 MILLION CASH IN HAND MAH....!!
ON TOP IT HAS RAISED MORE THAN USD 410 MILLION WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO FINANCE THE RM 700M UPGRADE LOH....!!
THAT MEAN....HENGYUAN CAN USE PART OF ITS RM 510 MILLION CASH IN BANK TO PAY DIV LOH....!!
ALSO THE SUSTAINABLE FRECASHFLOW OF HENGYUAN EXCEED RM 1.0 BILLION PA MAH.....!!
WITH THIS TYPE OF CASH FIRING POWER....INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY COMFORTABLE LOH.....!!
YES IT IS REAL LOH...HENGYUAN SPEND RM 700M BUT PETRONAS NEED TO SPEND RM 64 BILLION AND PETRON NEED TO SPEND RM 14 BILLION LOH...!!
HENGYUAN IS DEFINITELY THE MOST COMPETITIVE REFINERY IN MSIA LOH..!!
Posted by stockraider > Apr 13, 2018 10:57 AM | Report Abuse X
Remember 2 sen div is just starter or apetiser loh....!!
Div easily rm 0.20 to rm 0.30 per share coming loh....!!
2018-04-15 12:08
Posted by stockraider > Apr 13, 2018 03:38 PM | Report Abuse X
JON CHIVO LIKE TO TALK COCK GOOD FOR NOTHING LOH....!!
IT IS OBVIOUS HENGYUAN IS GOING TO BE PROFITABLE....EVEN UPGRADE TO EURO 5 EVEN MORE PROFITABLE MAH...!!
THEY HAVE REPORTED 3 YRS OF STRONG EARNINGS EVEN IN THE YEAR OF STATUTORY SHUTDOWN IN 2015 LOH....!!
WHY LEH HENGYUAN CAN BE MORE PROFITABLE LEH??
IF HENGYUAN UPGRADE TO EURO 4, THEY WILL BE AHEAD OF BOTH PETRONAS AND PETRON BCOS THIS CO...HAS NOT EMBARKED INTO THE UPGADE FOR ITS EURO 4 FOR RON 95 YET LOH...!!
JUST IMAGINE...THE ADVERTISING MILEAGE...BY BEING AHEAD OF THE PACK.
U CAN SEE THE STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE GREENY LOH....!!
Posted by Jon Choivo > Apr 13, 2018 03:28 PM | Report Abuse
Again bullshitting.
Saying they are EURO 6 is meaningless. Can they be EURO 6 and profitable consistently?
Your Evergreen now can do very thin particle board with the new line, but still make less money loh!
I got say SHPC is mickey mouse co meh? Never said that at all. If you read my comments, all i always said that they seem competent and have good earnings in china refineries.
So you telling me before china no ability? Then you use 2016 and 2015 figures for what? They haven buy HY then loh!
OFFICIALLY CHINA ALREADY IN 2015 LOH...!!
IF U ATTEND THE 2015 AGM U WILL KNOW LOH.,...!!
As usual stockraider, cannot talk logic one. Only know how to slander people randomly.
2018-04-15 12:12
Posted by stockraider > Apr 13, 2018 03:46 PM | Report Abuse X
GENERAL RAIDER INVEST 3 YRS NEVER MIND LOH....!!
BUT GENERAL RAIDER DON LIKE CONMAN CON NEWBIES, AUNTIES AND UNCLES SELL CHEAP CHEAP HENGYUAN TOO PREMATURELY LOH....!!
LONGTERM TP OF HENGYUAN RM 22.00 TO RM 42.00 MAH....!!
Posted by dragonslayer > Apr 13, 2018 03:43 PM | Report Abuse
Aiyo Tibet monk...dun goring ...you invest..3 yrs later come back like Godfather lah..RM18 lah...wakakaka....kikiki
2018-04-15 12:12
Posted by stockraider > Apr 13, 2018 03:53 PM | Report Abuse X
WHY ??
THIS IS WHY 3 YRS LOH....!!
U STILL WANT MEET TO REPEAT MEH ??
DRAGON MAY MENGAMUK LOH....!!
ALREADY EXPLAIN MAH....!!
posted by stockraider > Apr 12, 2018 05:36 PM | Report Abuse X
Remember Hengyuan average 3 yrs profit are as follow loh....!!
eps
2015......rm 1.17
2016..... rm 1.11
2017..... rm 3.03
average 3 yrs pa eps...rm 1.77 mah....!!
Why 3 yrs cycle as measurement leh ??
Bcos every 3 yrs shutdown for statutory maintenance mah...!!
The last shutdown was 2015....3 yrs ago still make eps Rm 1.17 mah...!!
That time average crack spread only USD 5 today it exceed USD 7 to 9 mah....!!
The business environment very good loh...!!
Based on average 3 yr sustainable EPS of Rm 1.77...exceeding Rm 12.00 in short term...no issue loh...!!
The question like probability says is when ??
Like probability says likely when Q1 2018 hengyuan result announcement in may loh....!!
Posted by uptrending > Apr 13, 2018 03:47 PM | Report Abuse
Cyclical Adjusted PE would be more accurate. But Raider only use 3 years.
Why not go backward further to use 5, 10, 15 or even 20 years..
uptrending
463 posts
Posted by uptrending > Apr 13, 2018 03:55 PM | Report Abuse
The number would be ugly if use 5 years loh
stockraider
7378 posts
Posted by stockraider > Apr 13, 2018 03:57 PM | Report Abuse X
REMEMBER WHY BIGGEST WEIGHTAGE TO RECENT YEARS LOH...!!
why not 2008 leh ??
Raider says Old data outdated loh....!!
Ask yourself chow kiau tiau in 2008 how much leh ??
Rm 3.00 to Rm 4.00 and today Rm 5.50 to Rm 6.00 mah...!!
So how to use old data leh ??
if a chowkiautiau fellow use old data 2008....to charge old price like in 2008 rm 3.00 per plate sure lose monies mah...!!
Thats why raider always say use latest data like 2015 to 2017 as a guide loh...it reflect the current operating environment & conditions loh...!!
Also Just ask yourself 2008....double storey link house in bandar utama cost how much ?? About Rm 350k loh...!!
Today 2018 selling how much ??
Rm 1.1 million loh....!!
Can the developer sell to u at 2008 price of Rm 350k ??
Sure cannot loh....!!
Use ur brain to think lah....!!
BTW SURELY THERE IS A CONFLICT OF INTEREST MAH....!!
IF U WANT MU TO WIN....SURELY U R SUPPORTER OF MU MAH...!!
SURELY HENGYUAN A GOOD CO....WHEN EPS VERY GOOD MAH...!!
Remember Hengyuan average 3 yrs profit are as follow loh....!!
eps
2015......rm 1.17
2016..... rm 1.11
2017..... rm 3.03
AVERAGE 3 YR EPS PA RM 1.77 LOH....!!
LIKE THAT ALSO DON UNDERSTAND MEH ??
2018-04-15 12:13
Posted by stockraider > Apr 15, 2018 12:18 PM | Report Abuse X
Hengyuan is a truly a great value selection , with PE 3x, strong cashflow and efiicient management....it is the best investment in klse .
Also if div increase per sslee request the share price will definitely fly loh...!!
Fyi info...w.buffet also invest in refinery too...his refinery Phillip 66 now trade at PE 22x v Hengyuan PE 3x loh...!!
Hengyuan has great scope for rerating soon...!!
Warren Buffett’s big life lesson to students: Don’t borrow money like Donald Trump
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 13 Apr 2018, 01:47 PM
(April 13): Warren Buffett warned students about the perils of using debt and leverage decades ago, using Donald Trump as a negative case study.
Buffett was asked by a Notre Dame student about Trump's business troubles during a question-and-answer session in 1991. Trump's Atlantic City Taj Mahal casino filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection later that year.
"Where did Donald Trump go wrong? The big problem with Donald Trump was he never went right. He basically overpaid for properties, but he got people to lend him the money. He was terrific at borrowing money. If you look at his assets, and what he paid for them, and what he borrowed to get them, there was never any real equity there," Buffett said, according to a transcript published by former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson.
I've seen more people fail because of liquor and leverage – leverage being borrowed money. Donald Trump failed because of leverage. He simply got infatuated with how much money he could borrow, and he did not give enough thought to how much money he could pay back."
Value investing aficionados are enthusiastically discussing the Oracle of Omaha's timeless investing tips and wisdom as Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting approaches in early May. Discussion about Buffett's 1991 comments on leverage and Trump gained traction Wednesday on social media.
Buffett also told the students to instead use his own life as a model on how to succeed in business and investing without using much debt.
"You really don't need leverage in this world much. If you're smart, you're going to make a lot of money without borrowing," he said. "I've never borrowed a significant amount of money in my life. Never. Never will. I've got no interest in it."
The investor's sage advice on leverage has not changed over the years.
Buffett repeated his warning and told investors not to use debt to buy stocks in his 2017 annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders released in February and during an interview with CNBC a few days later.
"It is crazy in my view to borrow money on securities," he told CNBC. "It's insane to risk what you have and need for something you don't really need. ... You will not be way happier if you double your net worth."
Berkshire Hathaway did not immediately respond to a request for comment. - Reuters
WARREN BUFFET ADVICE IN SUMMARY IS ;
1. DO NOT OVERPAY FOR STOCKS LOH...!! NESTLE, DLADY , F&N THEIR VALUATION VERY HIGH...THUS SHOULD AVOID....EVEN IF IT IS GOOD LOH..!!
ON THE OTHER HAND STICK TO HENGYUAN PE 3X, THE TOP EARNER WITH EPS RM 3.03 THE TOP EPS CO IN KLSE 2017, WITH SUPERIOR ROE OF 50% PA AND WITH ONLY PE 3X....THE BEST INVESTMENT U CAN FIND LOH...!!
2. DO NOT BORROW TO INVEST LOH....!!
3. IF U R ALREADY RICH...IT IS CRAZIER TO BORROW TO BUY MORE SHARE AND PRESSING YOUR LUCK TO GET RICHER LOH....!!
2018-04-15 12:20
saiyan
The goals and tasks of the company's work in 2016:
In accordance with the National 13th Five-Year Plan Development Outline, promote the implementation of the overall relocation strategy of enterprises, build a “new type of refinery and chemical industry park”, and rely on a refinery cooperation platform in Southeast Asia to further explore and promote domestic and overseas companies with strong economic strength. In-depth cooperation; Fully promote the use of crude oil, crude oil imports, oil product export quality declaration; In-depth discussion of the organic combination of industry and capital, finance, stimulate the vitality of enterprises; Promote the company's residential property management social work process; To obtain qualified for use of imported crude oil as an opportunity The company plans to process 2.6 million tons of raw material oil throughout the year, realize sales revenue of 15 billion yuan, and realize profits and taxes of 2 billion yuan.
2018-04-15 16:48
I tell you want I think of this company....
dividends and minority interests and even share prices is way down the priority of this company
it is to get a refinery in South East Asia which will give them greater flexibility because the environment in China is very regulated and restrictive.
it will in future be operated with minimum transparencies and corporate governance and transfer pricing as part of its corporate culture...especially after Rapids is in full operation and Shell leaves them by then...
2018-04-15 16:54
Hengyuan focus will be only msia...bcos all its production capacity, will be taken up by shell for the next 8 yrs loh...!!
That means hengyuan business model will be just concentrating in msia, with only a single customer and the key is to drive efficiency to bring down cost loh...!!
Hengyuan refinery is relative new, compare with Petron with the last upgrade in 2013 compare with petron 1999, on top of that Hengyuan refinery take in multiple type of crude thus offer them to capture margin loh....!!
Even compare to Petronas, it can matched Melaka plant which is the most modern plant own by Petronas loh..!!
The crack margin for 1st qtr 2018 average about USD 8 per barrel , thus it is expected hengyuan will do reasonably well, bearing in mind crack spread for the whole 2017 the best record yr is also about usd 8 per barrel loh...!!
However the crack margin of 2nd qtr, for the mth of apr is expected to taper off slightly about usd 0.9 per barrel...that may affect q2 result in 2018 slightly....but then q2 of 2017 is also not a good qtr anyway for hengyuan in 2017, as the crack spread was only usd 6 mah....!!
Going fwd with the strong cashflow generation, it is expected the cash position of hengyuan for 2018, will improve tremendously going fwd loh...!!
That will support hengyuan div payment capacity mah....!!
2018-04-16 00:09
Ka Ki Kong, Ka Ki Song. The fact is it pays only 2 cents dividend lah! It is a typical Chinese Stock! Bodoh!
2018-04-16 08:46
ANSWERING PROBABILITY SPIN;
PROBABILITY
QUIZ NO.1.....
In my opinion,
Hengyuan will be operating at half - 50% their current capacity, i,e 5 Million barrels instead of 10 Million per QTR after the upgrade for Euro 4 Gasoline.W
RUBBISH LOH...THIS PROBABILITY...IS NOT EVEN AN INSIDER HOW DOES HE KNOW, HENGYUAN WILL OPERATE 50% OF THE CAPACITY LEH ??
THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF HENGYUAN, SAYS HE EXPECT AT LEAST EXISTING CAPACITY OR HIGHER LOH ??
HE SAY, WHAT THE HACK OF UPGRADE, IF NOT BETTER LEH ??
HOW TO COMPARE PETRON IS ABOUT 20 YRS AFTER THE LAST UPGRADE IN 1999, THATS WHY OPERATING AT 50% LOH...!!This is just like how the Petron PD refinery operates.
RUBBISH LOH...!! JUST A SPIN MAH...!!
(there is a technical reason for this which will be revealed later, right now i encourage all reader to guess & reason this them self).
2018-04-16 10:53
AGREE LOH...IF THE OWNER CAN MAKE RM 3.03 EPS....EVEN HIGHER THAN EPS OF NESTLE, DEFINITELY BRILLIANT MAH....!!
All the while Shandong Hengyuan had only one objective....to expand their refined products market abroad...
To capture Shell Retails markets....the 600 Million investment to acquire the PD refinery was peanuts.
It was definitely a prudent investment to gain big chunk of foreign market share of retail products consumption for 10 years.
These Chinaman is indeed Brilliant. Totally Brilliant.
2018-04-16 10:55
WHY NEED TO SO HURRY FOR UPGRADES LEH ??
TAKE UR TIME PLAN MAH....!!
HENGYUAN IS WELL AHEAD OF PETRON AND PETRONAS IN COMPLYING THE EURO REQUIREMENT.
FURTHERMORE, THE GOVT HAD NOT EVEN OFFICIALLY FINALISE THE STANDARD FOR EURO 5 REQUIREMENT MAH....!!
This explains exactly why they are in no hurry for the Upgrade..
as the main income is not expected from the value additions of the refining alone.
RUBBISH LOH...THE CHAIMAN MENTIONED IT COST MORE FOR THEM TO MAKE & CHINA & TRANSPORT HERE LOH...!!
Its how they can sell their refined products from China here (which are already Euro 4 and Euro 5 compliance) and selling much cheaper than other south east asian competitors.
ENTERING TRADING BCOS THEY WANT HAS ALTERNATIVE BESIDE FROM SHELL AS A SUPPLIER FOR CRUDE THE PARENT CAN PROVIDE TOO, SOURCE THE CHEAPEST SOURCE THE BEST PRACTISE MAH...!!
This is all line with recent news that come out saying entering trading business and they need some capital for that.
2018-04-16 11:01
ON DIV...BIG DIV WILL BE COMING SOON....WAIT FOR THE AGM, AS THEY HAVE TAKEN IN SSLEE PROPOSE RESOLUTION LOH...!!
Also it explains the 2 cent dividend very well. As the transfer price the PD refinery received to add margin to sell to Shell retails would be barely justifying it....
YES SHANDONG MAKE ALOT OF MONIES...IT IS BCOS THEY INVESTED IN VERY PROFITABLE HENGYUAN LOH...!!
ON TRANSFER PRICING, DON DREAM LOH....THE INLAND REVENUE WILL GO AFTER U ESPECIALLY U R FOREIGN MAJORITY OWN LOH...!!
The major bulk of the profit goes to Shandong China refinery (in China) who has a secured buyer (in Malaysia) at Transfer Price mechanism...
REMEMBER WHAT THE CHINAMAN CHAIRMAN SAYS LEH ??
"REMEMBER THE CHINAMAN CHAIRMAN TOLD RAIDER, THAT HE IS NOT INTERESTED ALL THOSE MKT THING LIKE BONUS ISSUE LOH...HE JUST WANT HENGYUAN TO OPERATE EFFICIENTLY AND MAKE GOOD PROFITS AND PAYS GOOD DIV TO REWARD SHAREHOLDERS LOH...!!"
THUS BUYING BACK SHARE EVEN IT IS CHEAP, IS NOT THEIR BUSINESS OBJECTIVE, THEY WILL LEAVE IT TO THE MKT LOH...!!
THATS WHY KYY BENEFITED AND TO SOME EXTENT RAIDER BENEFITED TOO LOH....!!
2018-04-16 11:08
YES CANGGIH WISE... HENGYUAN NO WAY TO COMPETE WITH RM 64 BILLION REFINERY OF PETRONAS LOH...!!
HENGYUAN ONLY SPEND RM 700 MILLION UPGRADE LOH...!!
THE QUESTION IS R WE DOING BUSINESS LEH ??
IF THE ANS IS YES....THEN U TELL ME SPEND RM 64 BILLION CAN COMPETE WITH RM 700M AH ??
AS A DESCENDANT OF CHINESE CONSIDER VERY GOOD BUSINESSMAN, LOGIC TELL ME HENGYUAN WILL DO WELL LOH...!!
IF U INVEST RM 64 BILLION...YOUR DEPRECIATION ALONE AT 10% WILL COST U, RM 6.4 BILLION PA....THAT IS EVEN BIGGER THAN HENGYUAN WHOLE MKT CAP MAH..!!
HENGYUAN SPEND RM 700M, DEPRECIATION PA ONLY RM 70M, VERY ECONOMICAL LOH....!!
BUSINESS SENSE, U CANNOT USE A ROLLS ROYCE TO COMPETE WITH A MYV AS A TAXI LOH....!!
Hengyuan refining technology is so old and inefficient it will be barely able to compete with the margins achieveable by the latest state of the art technology refineries from China and like the new RAPID refinery which can even handle Saudi/Dubai crude.
Dubai crude is at a discount of almost 4USD/brl againts Brent...
they can easily wipe out HY margins achievable using Brent.
China refineries uses Saudi/Dubai Crudes which are very much sour and heavier thus selling very cheap against Brent.
2018-04-16 11:16
YES CRACK SPREAD DROP BUT IT DROP USD RM O.90, WHERE GOT USD 3.00 LIKE CONMAN PROBABILITY CLAIM LEH ??
AT THE CURRENT CRACK SPREAD STILL COMFORTABLE LOH...!!
Hengyuan refinery is relative new, compare with Petron with the last upgrade in 2013 compare with petron 1999, on top of that Hengyuan refinery take in multiple type of crude thus offer them to capture margin loh....!!
Even compare to Petronas, it can matched Melaka plant which is the most modern plant own by Petronas loh..!!
The crack margin for 1st qtr 2018 average about USD 8 per barrel , thus it is expected hengyuan will do reasonably well, bearing in mind crack spread for the whole 2017 the best record yr is also about usd 8 per barrel loh...!!
However the crack margin of 2nd qtr, for the mth of apr is expected to taper off slightly about usd 0.9 per barrel...that may affect q2 result in 2018 slightly....but then q2 of 2017 is also not a good qtr anyway for hengyuan in 2017, as the crack spread was only usd 6 mah....!!
Going fwd with the strong cashflow generation, it is expected the cash position of hengyuan for 2018, will improve tremendously going fwd loh...!!
QUIZ NO.2......
CRACK SPREAD drop by 3 USD/brl last week compared to average of 2017.
anyone CARE & DARE to find out the implications on EPS going forward?
RAIDER COMMENT,
DON FORGET,AT THE CURRENT PRICE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN BRENT V WTI IS USD 5 PER BARREL, THERE IS HUGE POTENTIAL FOR HENGYUAN TO GAIN HERE FOR BETTER MARGIN LOH..!!
2018-04-16 11:26
RAIDER IS NOT BULSHITING THAT HENGYUAN IS VERY EFFICIENT....LET RAIDER SSHOW U LOH....!!
BRENT MKT PRICE.............USD 72.58
ADD CRACK SPREAD............USD 7.2
THEREOTICAL SELLING PRICE..USD 79.78
THUS UR MACRO GROSS MARGIN IS ONLY 9% LOH BUT HENGYUAN GIVE U A GROSS MARGIN OF 12.6% FOR THE WHOLE YR OF 2017 MAH....!!
DON FORGET THAT HENGYUAN IN DERIVING THE GROSS MARGIN THERE ARE ADDITIONAL COST LIKE DIRECT EXPENSE, DIRECT LABOUR, DIRECT SELLING EXPENSES, SHIPPING CHARGE TO THE COST OF SALES.
WHEREAS THE ABOVE THEORY DISCLOSURE ONLY DEAL WITH BRENT CRUDE PRICE AND CRACK SPREAD MAH...!!
12.6% V 9%....THAT MEANS HENGYUAN GROSS MARGIN IS MUCH SUPERIOR LOH...!!
THE DIV CAMPAIGN BY SSLEE ASK FOR RM 0.435 DIV PER SHARE LOH...!!
IF THIS DIV IS APPROVED IN THE AGM, HENGYUAN WILL BE ABLE TO JOIN THE LEAGUE OF BLUECHIPS, WHERE A RERATING TO PE 16X....IS STILL CONSIDER BELOW NORM CONSIDERING MOST CO....HAS PE ABOVE 20X IN THIS CATEGORY LOH...!!
SURELY HENGYUAN A GOOD CO....WHEN EPS VERY GOOD MAH...!!
Remember Hengyuan average 3 yrs profit are as follow loh....!!
eps
2015......rm 1.17
2016..... rm 1.11
2017..... rm 3.03
AVERAGE 3 YR EPS PA RM 1.77 LOH....!!
WHAT DOES A RATING OF A BLUECHIPS MEANS FOR HENGYUAN ??
THAT MEANS MIN PE 12X LOH....!!
WITH CONSERVATIVE EPS RM 2.00 PE 12X = TP RM 24.00 LOH...!!
2018-04-16 12:45
WHERE CAN ??
HENGYUAN CHAIRMAN IS THE BLUE EYE BOY OF PRESIDENT XI MAH...!!
WHERE HE WILL ROB LEH ??
PRESIDENT XI DON LIKE CORRUPTION AND ABUSE OF POWER MAH...!!
UNDERSTAND ??
HENGYUAN WILL THE BEST ELITE BENCHMARK CHINA OWN CO IN KLSE LOH...!!
IT ALREADY IS THE BEST WITH EPS OF RM 3.03 EVEN HIGHER THAN NESTLE MAH..!!
Posted by titus > Apr 16, 2018 12:55 PM | Report Abuse
dragon, like that even worse loh.......meaning if gomen dun swindle u.....u also be rob by dragon descendent ah? wahh....ur clan very bad leh.
2018-04-16 13:02
CAN U MARK THIS....SO THAT U CAN TAKE NOTE OF PROBABILITY CON!! ...IF IT TURN OUT THAT RAIDER IS RIGHT LOH..!!
U MUST UNDERSTAND THIS LOH, AT RM 8.30....WE R NOT LOOKING EPS OF RM 3.03 LIKE IN 2017 MAH....!!
THUS THE PRICE ALREADY DISCOUNTED A LOWER EARNINGS OF HY LOH...!!
REMEMBER HY 2018 EPS RAIDER ESTIMATE ABOUT RM 2.00 LOH...!!
THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SHARE PRICE OF RM 13.00 GOING FWD LOH..!!
Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2018 12:33 AM | Report Abuse
go ahead believe raider....and dont let him go when the results shows otherwise
2018-04-22 00:50
i never con liao...
i said very unlikely...
but raider confidently saying they use WTI.
the prove will be based on refining margin calculated based on gross profit. It should increase by 4USD/brl.
If not Riader con liao!!!
2018-04-22 00:53
CONMAN ALWAYS PLAY WITH WORDS MAH...!!
IF WANT TO FIGHT BE DEFINITE LIKE RAIDER MAH....!!
Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2018 12:53 AM | Report Abuse
i never con liao...
i said very unlikely...
but raider confidently saying they use WTI.
the prove will be based on refining margin calculated based on gross profit. It should increase by 4USD/brl.
If not Riader con liao!!!
2018-04-22 01:03
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CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stockraider
PROBABILITY INFO IS MISINFORMED LOH....!!
Posted by probability > Apr 14, 2018
Hengyuan will be operating at half - 50% their current capacity, i,e 5 Million barrels instead of 10 Million per QTR after the upgrade for Euro 4 Gasoline.
NO LOH....HENGYUAN WILL OPERATE AT 120K BPD THE EXISTING CAPACITY TODAY LOH....!!
BUT THEY MAY NOT GO FOR EURO 4 BUT MAYBE STRAIGHT TO EURO 5 TO SAVE TIME
WHY USE PETRON AS BENCHMARK LEH ??? BRADY OLD THE LAST UPGRADE WAS 1999 ABOUT 20 YRS AGO LOH....!!
This is just like how the Petron PD refinery operates.
(there is a technical reason for this which will be revealed later, right now i encourage all reader to guess & reason this them self).
PETRON IS A SIMPLE REFINERY THAT CANNOT PROCESS HEAVY CRUDE LOH...!!
THEY USE VERY EXPENSIVE INPUT MSIA LIGHT TAPIS, THAT IS ABOUT USD 2 TO 3 MORE EXPENSIVE THAN BRENT LOH....!!
WHY PETRON OPERATE AT ACTUAL ONLY 40K TO 45K BPD COMPARE TO ITS RATED CAPACITY BCOS THEIR PLANT ARE OLD LOH.....!!
All the while Shandong Hengyuan had only one objective....to expand their refined products market abroad...YES EXPAND ABROAD TO DIVERSIFY THEIR INVESTMENT LOH...!!
To capture Shell Retails markets....the 600 Million investment to acacquire the PD refinery was peanuts. THATS IS TRUE LOH...!! BUT SHPC ACQUIRE SHELL REFINERY AT A BARGAIN BASEMENT TIME, AS THAT TIME THE COMPETITORCRACK SPREAD IN 2014 IS DAMN LOW AT USD 1 PER BARREL. THUS THE MAT SALLEH REFUSE TO INVEST AND SELL CHEAP AT RM 1.92 PER SHARE LOH...!!
THEY COULD HAVE GET A BETTER VALUE, IF THEY SOLD TO PETRONAS AT A LEAST RM 4.00 PER SHARE LOH...!! BUT THEY REFUSE BCOS PETRONAS IS SHELL MKT MAIN COMPETITOR LOH..!!
It was definitely a prudent investment to gain big chunk of foreign market share of retail products consumption for 10 years.
These Chinaman is indeed Brilliant. Totally Brilliant. PARTLY LUCKY AND PARTLY THEY HAVE THE TECHNICAL EXPERTISE, THAT MAT SALLEH KNEW THEY CAN DEPEND ON MAH...!!
This explains exactly why they are in no hurry for the Upgrade..as the main income is not expected from the value additions of the refining alone. NO HURRY TO UPGRADE BCOS THEIR TARGET IS IN SEPT 2018, WHEN IT IS STATUTORY SHUTDOWN PERIOD WHERE THEY CAN DO TOGETHER LOH..!!
Its how they can sell their refined products from China here (which are already Euro 4 and Euro 5 compliance) and selling much cheaper than other south east asian competitors.
This is all line with recent news that come out saying entering trading business and they need some capital for that.
RUBBISH INFO LOH...!! THE CHINAMAN CHAIRMAN TELL RAIDER HENGYUAN MSIA CAN PRODUCE CHEAPER THAN CHINA, IT IS NOT WORTHWHILE TO IMPORT. THATS WHY THEY DID NOT EVEN TRY TO FULFILLED ADDITIONAL SHELL REQUIREMENT BCOS CHINA COST WITH TRANSPORT IS DEFINITELY HIGHER LOH...!!
Also it explains the 2 cent dividend very well. As the transfer price the PD refinery received to add margin to sell to Shell retails would be barely justifying it....NO LAH....THE CHINA OWNER DID NOT WANT TO PAY MORE DIV...BCOS THEY HAVE NOT COMPLETED THE UPGRADE, THEY ARE JUST PRUDENT MAH...
2018-04-15 11:53