Sslee blog
How to overcome losses and move on.
Dear all,
It was a traumatic and scary week to watch the sell down/slump of world capital market. Bursa was not spared and in-fact Bursa had been in slow decline since PH took over the government due to many flip flopping policy where the new government in one hand need to keep to their election manifesto to abolish GST and on the other hand need to cut cost and find new revenues to pay debt (RM 1 trillion) and balance the budget.
The hottest topics in i3 last week are:
- MRT2 under-ground work contract termination/renegotiation impasse between MOF and MMC-Gamuda (With unprecedented open letter from both side to win their argument in the court of public opinion)
- Speculation on whether government intends to impose Capital Gain Tax (Share trading capital gain) on the coming budget and the argument if CGT will to be implemented then it will spell the beginning of the end of Bursa Malaysia.
Both negative news couple with world market sell-down cause Bursa to nosedive result in many people seeing red and staring at book losses in thousands/millions and taking out their frustration in i3 blogs/comments with anger/hatred/cursing/fault finding/blaming on PH government and share promoters. I too staring at my many thousands book losses and decide to write this thought of mine on how to overcome losses.
- Write down you thought, emotion, anger and cursing in whatever form.
- Allow your emotion and grieving process to flow freely.
- Reconcile with the fact that no matter how much you wanted to turn back the clock, it can never happen.
- Pray the loss is not in vain but for lessons learnt and will bring change for betterment of humanity.
- Forgive others and ownself, move on and never dwell in the sorrow past.
- Hope and strive that next time I will do better.
Thank you
Below is what I wrote on my personal loss of a colleague and a good friend.
Update on 18/7/2014
MH17
In the moment of sadness and anger, I had penned the following thought when news reached me that our Colleague Mr. QZ Ng is in that ill fated flight MH17 from Amsterdam. Our thoughts and prayers are with those on board Flight MH17 as well as their families and loved ones.
I was still thinking why it had to be MAS plane MH17 from Amsterdam to Malaysia that was shot down over Ukraine airspace by a surface to air missile. (Not again, Malaysians are still in mourning over the still unsolved mystery disappearance of MH 370 from KL to Beijing on that fateful early morning on 8th March 2014 with 227 passengers and 12 crew members. And on 24th March 2014 after many missteps, confusions, contradicting statements, the biggest multinational sea search of South China Sea, Strait of Melaka, Andaman Sea, India Ocean and land search from Thailand/Vietnam/China/India/Pakistan till Kazakhstan yielded nothing. Malaysia PM Najib Razak announced to the world base on the Experts analysis of Inmarsat Satellite Handshake data, flight MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean) The image of burnt wreckage with 200+ passengers and crew members with no chance of any survival by CNN on this morning TV news keep playing in my mind.
In my office I was told that one of my IES colleagues was on that flight. I immediately make a call back to the IES KL office and ask the person that picks up the phone is that true? The answer was yes, QZ Ng is on that flight. I held back my tears and put down the phone. I walk out of the office, stare into the morning sun and tears start streaming down from my eyes. Damn you, Damn you Russia president Putin, damn you Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko and damn you the civil war. How can you shoot down a civilian Airplane and take away hundreds of innocent lives that had nothing to do with your civil war.
My colleague QZ Ng, you are the innocent victim of human tragedy that unfolds so often because of evil politicians that divide and rule, have no sense and respect for life. May your soul rest in peace in Heaven now and may those responsible for your tragic end burnt eternity in Hell.
The world now is full of tragic wars (Syrian, Iraq, Ukraine, Israel, Palestine etc.) Can human beings learn from the past catastrophic/disastrous/apocalyptic war (the horror of war) and live in peace. Can the politicians unite us with our commonality rather than divide us with our differences? Can hatred be turned into kindness and forgiveness? It took hatred, deep rooted enmity and moments of madness to start the killing but it takes life-long forgiveness and courage to build peace. Can we human beings be capable of kindness, forgiveness and courage? God help us.
My dear colleague QZ Ng, your life had been cut short by this human tragedy at this young age. You still have so much to contribute and accomplish. We and surely your family will miss you dearly but life has to go on and we will shoulder on with fond memories of you in our heart.
May the world now apply pressure on Russia and Ukraine to stop this madness of civil/proxy war? Can peace finally prevail? And may the legacy of MH17 tragic end, be the one that shakes the conscience of human beings and brings peace to this land. May peace be upon all of us? Good bye my dear colleague and friend Mr. QZ Ng.
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Be the first to like this. Showing 6 of 6 comments
Losses are an integral part of trading.. Much more than that, it serves as a great teacher for important lessons we must learn in order for us to elevate our skill sets.. . What the loss would have provided us is a clarity in the contrasting forces at play - what we could or should have done under the same circumstances in the future - then that loss is a gain in experience... It is when one continues to lament on self pity that the loss had been futile and wasted..
The only reason why you fall down is simply because you could get back up
Remember, the key to surviving in this business is to make money, not to be right all the time
2018-10-13 15:42
Nov 22, 2014 08:07 PM | Report Abuse
Let suppose you have 1m cash asset (Share, FD, Bonds, Treasury bills, SA etc excluding EPF). How much risk you you can take?
Some people can stand up to 50% loses (if they are still young <35 yr old)
Some people can only stand up to 20% loses. (may be for 40 -50 yr old)
Some may be 10%, or 5%. (Retired or near to retirement >50 yr old)
It is really depends on your degree of tolerance.
Some may be young, but they have low degree of tolerance. Their temper will fluctuate with market performance. Market good, they got excited. Market down, they will not be able to sleep. This will affect their job performance.
My advice is, if you invest up to 500k, you find that your temper already being jeopardized, reduce to 400k. If still find hard to sleep, reduce further to 300k, 200k,100k etc. There should come to a level whether market up or down doesn't affect performance of your main career anymore. That is your tolerance level.
Some may have 1m cash asset, but not able to stand a 5k loses. These people are not risk taker, share market is definitely not suitable for them. REITs may be most suitable for them as it is low risk with medium gain. Otherwise will be FD or MGS.
For Pensioners like you and me:
No harm taking small portion of your cash to polish up your trading skill at the same time making some pocket money. I always believe 買股是為了增加生活情趣, 小賭怡情, 大賭傷身
Is it right time to buy now?
You have to learn yourself. Practise make perfect. If you enter now and lose money, find out why. Everybody need to pay tuition fees.
What is knowledge, what is skill, what is peritus. Master this will see you through comfortable golden age.
股票市場 易学难精
2018-10-13 15:57
Blog: Govt proposes panel to monitor cost components of houses
Oct 11, 2018 10:34 PM | Report Abuse
Can someone enlighten us how does a housing developer determine selling price of :
1. Condo
2. Terrace house
3. Low cost flat/ PR1MA
I am no expert in housing, but try to figure out composition of each component:
1. Terrace house (say 100k)
1.1 Cost of house sold (60k)
1.2 Contribution to School reserve, Field and playgroud, Police Station, Bomba, Road reserve etc (6k) -- Assuming conversion rate 65%
1.3 Contribution to Bumi Quota with 7% discount, Low cost housing and PR1MA (6k)
1.4 Road, drainage, street light and other infra (3k)
1.5 Sales and marketing (3k)
Gross Profit is 100k - 60k -6k -6k -3k -3k = 22k
So, if you sell a million dollar house, gross profit is 220k
Of course, you will have to give more discount under present weak market sentiment.
Some developers give up to 15% or more (Understood MK Land gives up to 20% discount).
Then you will just have 7% gross profit.
What about interest expenses during construction period?
What about interest expenses after houses already completed but not yet sold?
What about HQ expenses?
Surely looking at the numbers, most developers will be losing money, unless the land cost is low.
How to make sure houses selling cheap, and developers still make decent profit?
Only way is to removed items stated in para 1.3, that will save up to 6%.
For Condo and high-rise apartment, land cost component normally take up around 15%.
Only problem is the developers tend to overpay for the land.
So they will have to build 30 or 40 storey high-rise.
That will take them 4 years to build before they can deliver VP to buyers.
In between, if sales not good, they will receive less progress payment, and paying 4 years bank interest is enough to kill fly-by-night developers like Jaks Resources.
Many such developers will prefer to abandon the project like Plaza Rakyat, for they could not afford to pay LAD.
As how to reduce selling price for the high-rise, better leave it to the authority to work it out.
If the authority concerned is so dumb, learn the trick from S'pore HDB......
2018-10-13 16:14
Can figure out how to invest in property stocks?
If cost of land is low, you already make 20 to 30% of gross development value.......
2018-10-13 16:17
From land cost perspective, Crescendo and Plenitude have lowest development land cost. So these two property developers will never lose money no matter how bad property market is. Moreover, Plenitude is so cash rich that interest hike actually put them in better position:-
1. They can earn more from bank placement
2. They can buy more land at more competitive pricing as others have to struggle to find source of funding.
3. Many developers especially fly-by-night will be forced out of market, thus limit houses supply in next 3 years.
4. They can hold longer to their inventory and need not go for fire sales.
5. Since their land price is cheap, no matter at what price they are selling, will still make profit, whereas many already folded up.
Buy property stock?
Buy into those company with low land cost.
BUY PLENITUDE and CRESCENDO..........when you feel comfortable......
2018-10-13 16:35
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Cerita macam kartun.. hehe
2018-10-13 15:03