@johnzhang

Read petdag comments in their quarter.. The receivables ballooned outrageously due to government delay in paying the subsidies... As such, they manage to get a reprieve from suppliers (presumably parent Petronas) to delay their own payments to them else they will have a liquidity crunch.... I think like gst refunds, our government is finding this challenging....... If this problem persists, the domino effect on pure producers when your customers delay you as well

one thing is certain though, the enormous increase in receivables, be it Hy, petron or petdag...... probably domino effect of government paying the oil companies the subsidies.... in fact, petdag even warned of liquidity concerns if situation persists

hng33, that treatment is for a trading derivative... for hedging, I believe it's a commitment to buy raw materials and sell spreads at a fixed rate within a time period.... if Hy have done it right, when recognition comes and contacts delivered and fulfilled, they become actual revenue or cost, and contacts expire.... Hy could still make good profit from this hedging but they are limited compared to had they sold at market... meaning they could have this losses as clean profit had they not taken this hedge.....like gloves selling at spot vs forward then

stockraider, it's not like that.... as sslee had explained, it's a hedging derivative, not a trading one..... which means, the p/l implications are taken when the contacts waste fulfilled..... meaning, had Hy were to deliver or fulfill all their contacts in the last quarter, they would have reported a loss of 400 mil instead......so, for next quarter, it'd depends on how much they are hedged against actual physical .... high crack spread may not fully work for them if they are hedged at lows and raw materials at high.... this makes it very difficult to predict Hy earnings where sifus here understated derivative losses... let's hope for the best Thursday

are you sure that the recognized spread is not due to their hedging done at low instead?

the ambiguity is in what price that Hy hedged..... crack spreads were pretty high last quarter yet their derivative losses are staggering, which means either they locked in raw materials at high and spreads on the lower off market rates....so, when comes delivery, they will recognize lower revenues and higher costs...... don't get me wrong.. I do have Hy but wonder if petron would be the better bet

If that's how sslee explained the derivatives variation, it does look like petronm has greater competence to hedge their commitments..... HY tends to sell themselves short against market conditions...
Petronm seems to be read the market better resulting in lesser leakage

how do you all read the derivative losses? more than 1 bil ...based on the estimates here, it should be lesser than 400mil...is that a concern?

petron's result considered excellent? Yet, price hardly move much.....how much profit would be needed to move HY? interesting indeed.......but, the catalyst is solid......strong spreads amidst tight supplies...unless russian sanctions are lifted, the oil companies should continue to reap good profits

shares of oil refineries ,cvr energy and pbf energy closed at multi year highs on Friday

crack spread all time high....USD 32.996........market makers can't suppress stock price for long....petron n Hy will move in tandem

otb, disregard the naysayers...you know your quality and we appreciate your hard work.........the world is in shortage of refined oil and with china opening back, consumption will hit the roof.......yeah, heng yuan incompetence with its hedging is appalling......provide for a huge discount or switch to petronm, who seemed less controversial

Bro, not my intent to scare monger.... It's important that to weigh perspectives from both sides and not blind sided.... I'm just stating the possible reason for the sudden reversal....

Steel and steel stocks are going thru a massive correction due to this Fitch report earlier this month.....

While one can argue that steel prices are still high, the report suggests that asp is coming down... The situation is similar to glove stocks where JP Morgan was chastised for being unduly bearish...

Just be careful that this is not repeated on steel theme

https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-rally-is-over-prices-to-follow-multi-year-downtrend-report/

Breaking news; muhyidin appoints kyy to replace sabri ...kyy has a proven skill that he can change his opinions faster than his Pagoda singlets

Markets possibly pricing in potential windfall tax on glove companies in upcoming budget

Top glove Singapore did not limit down.. Still trading between 6.84 and 6.51 in the afternoon session... Looks stabilized

Top glove Singapore at 6.54 and still trading .. Looks like RM20 is the estimated open tomorrow

I trade the markets for a living, I could hold trades anywhere from 3 secs to 3 weeks... I'd say the biggest enemy of a short term trader is boredom... If you want to be profitable, you must have the discipline to stick with your own methods that have tided you over the worst of waves.. That means the patience to wait for the right setups, which may or may not be the play of the day..

This market has proven the best economists wrong - they were all expecting a W shaped recovery and are now clamoring to get in after the huge breakout of resistance

I'd say going forward, this is going to be a global bull run of epic proportions - a recovery play and will be an excellent trader's market

, that 40 sen per RI share value was a hypothetical valuation assuming the stock price stays the same and the TERP is 80 sen.... With the exercise only to be completed in 3 or 4Q, and with the plant completing and firing up then , you may not be able to get the RI at 40 sen if the price continues its uptrend reflecting the stage of completion... If he decides with the RI then (he could call it off too), the price of the RI will still be at 50% discount to the TERP...

That's why I said, don't complicate matters, post dilution, does the eps of jaks meet the business case? If yes, go ahead with RI or even get more excess shares... If no, just sell it off and forget about it

Windy, if I understand DK66 workings, he mention of construction profit and the thought was for this to be used to subscribe for the shares instead... It means, that the construction profit is still there in the books... Why RI then? I don't know.. I could only speculate that his real intention is to get more shares on the cheap....

An RI whose proceeds is to be used for an acquisition of a future producing asset is acceptable... And yes, while Phillip has listed various instruments which an owner of a listed entity could use, there is really nothing wrong in going the RI route.. After all, isn't access to cheaper capital markets one of the key reasons for listing...

Ang could have gone the more damaging PP at 40sen and that would certainly be unfair and dilutive to existing shareholders

A RI is only dilutive if the shareholder decides not to exercise his right.... In fact, try to get the excess shares as well.. Jaks of today is different from the first RI where the plant was still in early stages of construction... They are at 92% completion now and the risk is greatly reduced...


The RI priced at 40sen doesn't mean the share is worth 40sen... Ask yourself, what is the future PE of jaks at 40sens, is it overvalued? Jaks has said the rights will be priced at least 50% of TERP, as DK66 has pointed out.... What the final TERP would be is how high (or low) I wish to manipulate the price to either entice or discourage shareholders to subscribe for it..

But usually, an RI is made to entice shareholders to subscribe to it else a PP is faster and cheaper but you may get a lashing from shareholders

During the 93 bull run, a RI issued at such discount presents a greater bull case for a run up in share prices...

Don't have to get complicated.. Just ask this question.. Is DK66 calculation of profit justifiable? What is the max diluted EPS post RO? s the business case still valid?

If yes, go ahead and follow the money else just sell off and probably get played out by ang again

Maybe, this RI could be a good thing for KYY to get in on the cheap too if he still believes the power plant story.. Sweet revenge indeed then

There is no need to belittle a comrade who is on a different path from yours.. It is akin to one proclaiming that his religion is the ultimate savior and that everyone should follow him on this 'truth' in order to grow... Until he realizes that someone else who is on a different belief system is not only equally at peace, but is thriving too

And if one has the chops and calling for teaching, why not? Arsene Wenger, Jurgen Klopps, Pep Guardiola, Jose Mourinho were known to be average players in their prime... Look at how quality future generations each of them produced for their clubs

A surprisingly weak justifications from otherwise solid dk66 articles..my layman arguments...

1..a reduction in opr still means that loans and interest costs needed to be serviced.. So, at 400m borrowings at 4% pa, a back of the envelope calculation suggests jaks needs to produce revenue of at least 12mil just to service the interest costs alone.. Can they under current circumstances?

2. There is a structural issue with real estate and that is oversupply.. Do not listen to property gurus who'd tell you the best time to buy is now because the sector will bottom in 6 months and recover from there.. The glut in residential and commercial will take years to absorb

3. usd borrowing can end up a double edged sword - if economic situation deteriorates further, flight to safe haven currencies will return - did anyone forgot what brought the hakim Saad, teh soon Seng etc down to their knees during the Asian financial crisis - the depreciation of local currencies against usd... Do not overlook this aspect

4..only true if they start producing revenue which is still some months away.. If successfully commissioned, then these usd revenue can be a natural hedge against the usd borrowing

Star media is a dinosaur awaiting extinction.. Sure, it has a nourishing balance sheet but without total business model relook, it's screwed, just like its subscription based business news or its half dead dim sum streaming endeavor

Do you seriously think Jason-like channels can bring the audiences back when the web is full of influencers, channels or food groups who simply needs to post a single picture and a 1 paragraph review to open the spending floodgates

And what's so unique or influential about star news and articles, when with a few clicks, I could read perspectives from different authors, experts, agencies commentaries on the same topic

Content consumption has changed and will continue to evolve.. The consumers prefer short captions, feeds (which then links to info of interest) and they absolutely do NOT like to be sold but the to be inspired to buy instead..

There is talk that star is embracing AI and rumour of partnering a Chinese IT giant, to build AI based consumer experience... For instance, one could be reading a kuali recipe, the AI robot will invoke a feed ,in a subtle no invasive manner, to consider buying the same food via delivery from a restaurant,the chef herself etc

The Star has a huge community but it doesn't know to monetize it.. Only recently has it started to get people to register to read its content.. Why? The purpose is purely to track consumer behavior and build on this data - so that's a start

Newspapers are for the fossil era..today, the young worships Twitter, Facebook, reddit etc.... In fact, IBM predicts that knowledge and information is now doubling every 12 hours... What is lacking is NOT knowledge but the wisdom to parlay and structure this chaotic information into substance of value

Yes, you are always right! :)

Phillip,

No one is saying vitamin C is the only cure.. Are you saying your body is made of a single nutrient? Of course not.. That's plain dumb..

If you read the works of orthomolecular physicists on covid-19, the few vitamins and supplements that are recommended by them, which they seemed to collectively agree on, is vitamin A, C, D, zinc - some combine other antioxidants to reduce inflammation while others push antimicrobial solution like Lugol's iodine..

The use of it in combination will stimulate the immune system activate the white blood cells to fight the infection, reduce inflammation - patients die from the inflammation and secondary infections than covid-19 itself - plus good sleep, lots of water and reduced stress all helps

Read Dr Shiva Ayyadurai letter to Trump.. It's online.. He details clearly the working of the immune system and why he recommended those supplements.. He's an double PhD MIT scientist and biologist, running for senate now...

And just because some doctor is on Twitter, he's not qualified? And then we have trump

Take a BIG note of this - the supplements mentioned above is NOT patentable and they are available cheaply hence is of little value for mainstream medicine to push for

You may be competent on many things but your ignorance shows when it comes to natural health... I have not seen a doctor nor taken a single pill for the past 7 years...

One tip for you - the body is lacking in nutrients, not medicine - give your body the nutrients and nutrition it needs and you'll be amazed by how well it can heal itself

Read more of Dr Shiva's work - he sees a systems based approach to healing than simply isolating a disease and then treating it with medicine

This is my last post on this topic for I do not wish to pollute this forum.... If you still think medicine is your only cure, so be it.. Whatever floats your boat

Cheers

Phillip, just a reminder - you are taking in millions of pathogens everyday - just by breathing and the only thing that is keeping you alive today is your immune system response

Don't have to believe me.. Just google up Dr Richard Cheng, his work was published in a respected science journal two days ago, worked with Shanghai hospitals to admister IVC successfully to 50 covid-19 patients and Dr Shiva Ayyadurai - he is openly chastising fauci now...

Two days ago, new York post reported a hospital has started vitamin C treatment protocol on covid-19 patients but they way short on supplies

This is not fiction.. Every one of them is available online

The mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open

Phillip, Dr fauci is pro big pharma.. He is suppressing or refusing to consider many top orthomolecular scientists and physicians, who tout our immune system response is the best cure for covid-19

You should follow the works of Dr Andrew cheng (who used vitamin C to successfully treat covid-19 patients in China), Dr Shiva Ayyadurai, brilliant MIT scientist and biologist who is chastising fauci - Dr Shiva recommends vitamin A, C, and D.... Also Dr Andrew Saul, Dr John Bergman, Dr Bruce Lipton etc...

This is the perplexing part - you have no cure, you start toying with some malaria, hiv drugs to treat patients but yet refuse to consider the only thing that's keeping humanity alive up to now - how to boost up our weakened immune system response

One can say Phillip is arrogant but he's entitled to it for he has a single conviction and stands by it... Too many analysts have muddle thoughts and a long list of disclaimers

Sure, the markets are volatile and reacting to the slightest of Information.. Your analysis would have factored these in and as long as it's happening within your realm of possibilities, that conviction stays

Choivo's article is good and reflects that one is only human and the nature of fear and uncertainties are gripping everyone else

From a behavioral analysis standpoint, my anticipation would be
-a sharp correction from now, testing recent or breaking recent lows as more news of infection comes in
- when it settles down, another relief rally ensues
- then a correction of a higher low, as markets grapple with how the stimulus would trickle down or implemented effectively
- a ding dong of sorts and then boom

In all scenarios, pay attention to news flows, when bad news no longer bring down prices, watch for rebound and vice versa

It is good to have an analytical mind but as they say, too much of anything is bad for you which in this case, leads to analysis paralysis... Ditto that of the technical analyst that relies on too many layers of indicators to 'confirm' their convictions

Just keep them really simple.... When this pandemic is done and it will be, the world is going to be awashed with so much money that another bull run on risky assets will start (because of negative interest rates and that money needs to go somewhere)

,the markets will come back, they always do.. You just need to be there to see it happens..

Cherry, SKIN is off... It won't come back to presbhd.. As is indicated, the new bids were between 1 to 1
8bil, significantly lower than presbhd 3.5 bil.... Presbhd will be compensated prior to new award to avoid disputes, especially on IP rights.. Presbhd will be compensated., no questions... Just how much

Looking good for presbhd - first is the acknowledgment by government of their entitlement to compensation which then follows on the quantum..... This one will be substantial.... If they have an airtight agreement, they could claim for not only based on completion but intangibles on opportunity costs, expenses related including staff employment, termination costs, purchase of PPE, damage to reputation etc

For a 200m market value of the company now, the compensation may easily exceed its entire worth

This is a game plan hatched to trap KYY again.... Bad market conditions, rights issues, hefty KYY purchase on margin, drying up buyers - all hallmarks for the big sharks to plan a violent shakeout and relentless margin call on KYY in order for him to vomit out his shares

KYY still doesn't learn.. He should buy and sell in stealth.. His ego and arrogance is going to slaughter him

Stay calm and stay invested.. LOL... Sitting on > 5k paper profit after buying yesterday

You may not have to wait too long... Will be in play soon.. How far? Dunno...

Negan, hard work is a fringe benefit of passion...this is the difference

Thomas Edison made countless experiments before discovering the light bulb.. When asked how did he handle his initial failures? He said, I didn't fail 10000 times. I just found 10000 other ways that won't work...

The path to trading profitably for a living is fraught with many initial disappointments... You try all and sundry, charts, candles, indicators, follow some so called Sifu until you burn your ass out....

Do not look down on old teachings.. It contains tonnes of wisdom... For instance, I trade only with price and volume per Jesse Livermore days ... Nothing else

And I can say that the chart of insas look really interesting.. Depending how the next few days pan out, it may be ripe for a position... (I have no positions yet)

Negan, nothing can be more delusional than someone who believes he can just think his way to riches without effort ..even if you wanna hit 4d,you've gotta get your ass up to buy that ticket

Contrary to what most people, it's not hard work that determines success.. It's passion

You've just scratched the surface on the laws of the universe.


I'd suggest you follow the works of Abraham hicks to fully understand what law of attraction really means.. She gives such amazing clarity on the subject matter

Negan, although I said I won't post anything more on this topic of religion / spirituality, I'll just answer you to give you a perspective

Elon musk will not need to crack this link.. Why? Because this matrix-like universe already exists within our space

Simple example...

Do NOT think of a pink elephant... And yet the image of a pink elephant conjures up in your head..

Before the iPhone ever came into existence, the image of how it'd look like, the colors, features and functions already existed in the mind of Steve Jobs

The mind is the conduit to the abundance of the universe.. You don't need a blue or red pill or some wires connected to your head

Control your mind and you will control your destiny,
What the mind can conceive, it will achieve - are some common phrases you've heard

I'd recommend you to read a book written in the 1930s - Think and Grow Rich by napoleon Hill.. Google it up, there's a free pdf floating around..

It's the best self improvement book I've ever read.. It delves into the mindset, thinking and mannerisms of the rich, and how they attract their wealth..

Always remember this - the mind is like a parachute, if only works when it's opened

Posted by Negan > Jul 21, 2019 11:23 AM | Report Abuse

Ayoyo! They say every living things have soul! But what if Elon Musk finally crack the link between human mind and computer! And successfully transfer your consienceness to a powerful server! Then you realise without biological body, you can see and travel within the net! And before long, Matrix is born!

To me,

The joy of life is freedom - freedom to be, freedom to choose

The purpose of life is to be happy - joy and satisfaction for what already is, yet always looking out for the better to manifest

To achieve the above, simply "change the way you see things, in order for things you see to change"

SSlee, you come across as someone who has a shackled mindset that hinges on certain old belief systems.. If you honestly believe it has served you well, so be it... But here is a perspective and will be my last post on this topic


there is a difference between being religious and being spiritual. For me, being spiritual is having an interest in and an attraction to the spiritual dimension, where someone we called God (or inner being, consciousness, soul or whatever else you wanna call it) is, and where everything that really matters comes from - love, honor, truth, beauty, compassion, etc.

Religion is the human attempt to control the spiritual (organizations, offices, titles, shame, blame, guilt, rules, condemnation).

For me, spiritual means an active, ongoing love relationship with my creator and is an integral part of my health (trading). Religion would be if I tried to shove that down other people's throats.

See the difference? Of course, if you've found alignment within you with religion, who is to say you've not... Good for you

I see Philip as someone who has a strong belief in his investment philosophies and is stern and assertive in bringing across his perspectives for the betterment of the community

See? Same event? Different perspective? You saw arrogance, my view was the above.. Which felt better? The need to be right or the need to be at peace? If one insists on being right, be prepared to fight... I choose to be at peace

It brings clarity of thought and is a integral mental practice towards my spirituality and indeed, the profitability of my trading..

I trade for a living and if I can't even find peace with and within myself (always blaming MM, syndicates etc), I'm royally screwed forever more. In life, it's always mind over matter.. Always had been. Always will.

Good luck



Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 21, 2019 10:50 AM | Report Abuse

Me too. I benefit a lot from Philips wisdom (and OTB, KYY, KC, even newbie SSlee, etc... everybody has something I can learn from)

But doesn't mean philips has to be so arrogant

We should consider ourselves blessed by the many collected wisdom in this forum.... I find Phillip to be a breathe of fresh air in bringing a different perspective to a business dominated by numbers that seemed more confusing than convincing

Celebrate our differences. Respect each other's opinions. Take the opportunity to learn and blossom..

Everyone is a priceless gift in this forum (well, except probably the mindless postings of cpteh but I've finally my peace with that too and wish him all the best)

After all, knowledge is speaking while, wisdom is in the listening...

And religion? I define it as a man-made belief system that forces conformity with punishment and hierarchy.... Totally out of whack here and shackles you from your true joy of life - freedom...

All the best and As Joker would say, why so serious?!

I have no positions in dayang but I do observe my empathy for uncle kyy sometimes...

Due to the need to feed his ego, he continues to write articles detailing his trading plans.. The investment bankers are reading him like a book and testing his resolve and margin limits

Rather than hinting at selling dayang on a margin call, although it may be true - He should have written a stealth article that says he is cash rich from sale of sendai shares and be prepared to load up on dayang... This will put the IBs on a backfoot

Really silly to reveal your game plan in a dog eat dog world

While there are no capital gains tax here, has anyone declared trading profits as income or challenged IRB definition on 'badges of trade' which may make trading profits as taxable income?

The clearest contrast is between kyy and Phillip... Phillip holds his investment for the very long term hence is considered capital gains by nature while uncle koon clearly trades with a motive to profit.. Does kyy declares his stock trading profits as income?

What is the position of other profitable traders here?

If one is Trading as an individual, and being profitable for many years, with taxable income at the highest % if trading profits are declared, how should one approach this subject without stirring up the hornet's nest with IRB?

Knowledge and information will not bring riches, for if that's true, professors or PhD holders would be the richest people on the planet..

So, what determines success and to a larger extent, riches? It is the IMAGINATION - in being able to combine knowledge, information and experience into something of value

Everyone has access to the same information, annual reports, books by authors, economic reports... You can see the by-the-book forummers expounding list after list of theoretical jargons, more to confuse than convince, while the successful outlier sees an imaginative perspective not immediately apparent to the norm

And that is the hallmark of a great entrepreneur - skill, guts, instincts and creativity in making use of chaotic mess of information into structure of substance

Seeing beyond his cockiness, Phillip has this pedigree and he's earned it... Thanks for the wonderful read of your thought processes

###rchi ayoyo,i have been reading your posts...looks like we are more alike then not...i think i shall leave now as most here are investors....we might be wasting time here....hahaha....come to my telegram group with tj if you are free...the name iiggtradergroup ####

I read your posts and see you are a master trader at call warrants - something I'm not competent to trade because of my limiting belief system of it being heavily skewed against the public .. Can learn something from you there..

I do join various chat groups but don't visit them or chat often as I'm always glued to the screen during trading hours as I could be holding sometimes up to 8 open positions or hawking for momentum breakouts .. During the breaks, I meditate or nap after lunch to rest my mind.. Thanks for the invite.. Will look into it

And I do see similarities in our trading venture.. Can learn from you too.. Thanks again

And I thank people like icon, Phillips, choivo, OTB, uncle kyy, Calvin, kcchong, Rickyyeo and many others for giving us trading ideas . Make peace, not quarrels.. And most of all, be thankful for the differing perspectives

I do mostly agree with rchi... However, it's got more to do with knowing thyself than mr market per se.. Markets are various dynamics at play.. What are you as a speculator?

For instance, to be a contrarian, you will not only need a sizeable account balance but probably, a larger dose of patience..

If one has a unique ability to time short term plays and to do it consistently, a few bids will eventually end up a molehill..

And if you believe that one can never time the market consistently, I shall stop explaining myself because your understanding is realized from your level of perception

"if you don't know who you are, the stock market is a very expensive place to find out" - Jesse Livermore

After some long winded essays, what have we learnt so far?

On methodologies and techniques
Regardless of TA, FA or hearsay, every speculator is dealt with the same deck of cards - reports, statistics, data, techniques from masters, books, end of day data etc.. which means knowledge and information are freely and readily available? What makes a successful speculator then?

By using his IMAGINATION in providing a STRUCTURE to a CHAOTIC combination of knowledge and information, to arrive at a usable CONCLUSION

That is called your EDGE - and it is the reason why one can never emulate the masters verbatim because their techniques are what worked for them... So, to be a successful speculator (in fact, at anything), find your own EDGE (and I'm not referring to the newspaper)

On when to sell,
When the original reasons for owning the stock are no longer valid

On when to cut loss or take profit
It is how much of the current profit you are willing to forgo in order to ride any potential further uptrend which you believe it still holds

Nice... Like a chapter taken off the famous book, Market Wizards..

It isn't so much about OTB having the winning formula but how he tweaked
from common benchmarks and yardsticks to develop his own winning edge and mindset..

The part where people see a contradiction when he kept some losing stocks although they broke his rules, showed someone with flexibility to adapt to market dynamics than pure hard and fast rules... Because you simply can't put a mathematical formula on something as complex as human emotions..

OTB trading style of finding themes and value , buying the leader on momentum and riding it as much as possible, is closest to legendary Jesse Livermore - a style which I've been dying to emulate for so many years but can't... No complaints though as I've developed my own which continues to be profitable to me even this year in such markets..

In uncle koon case, his biggest flaw is his need to fan his ego thus letting people read him like an open book... As can be seen, the markets will pound you down into submission one day... Even young Jon has lately toned down on his brashness and speaks with some respect

As for qqq, find peace inside you than to continue barking at OTB... There is a reason why he is respected by others in spite of his poorer results thus year.. You can't win when you can't even be in control your own emotions.. Remember, in this moment of now, you always have the right to choose.. To be right or to be at peace? Move on, learn and find peace inside you to celebrate each other's differences .. For it is only in contrast that we learn (what we want and what we don't)