Technical spots

FBMKLCI - Bull market is coming

ScrewDriver
Publish date: Fri, 12 Aug 2016, 11:50 PM

Forget about the market crash, cause financial market will not crash this year!

In line with the Wyckoff accumulation schematic, the selling of FBMKLCI was well absorbed and hence was accumulated since the selling climax in Aug 2015, which indicates FBMKLCI has successfully formed a bottom for the 2 years correction (Jul 2014 to Aug 2016).
Today, FBMKLCI managed to close above 1681 to violate the downward trendline shown in the figure. 
Given that 
FBMKLCI is now trading well above the 200sma, FBMKLCI is poised to regain strength to turn bullish again.

 

 

This is the weekly USD/MYR currency chart. Just to clarify in case if you are unfamiliar with currency chart, upmove in USD/MYR means Ringgit is weakening, equivalent to US dollar gaining strength, and vice versa.
In the chart above, Ringgit has weakened against US dollar from May 2013 to Oct 2015.
The chart above clearly highlights the Bump and Run Reversal chart pattern formed on USD/MYR currency pair. This means the weakening of Ringgit against US dollar has reached an end for intermediate to long-term (1 year), and Ringgit has successfully retested the middle trendline in June 2016. 

 

The is the USD/MYR chart but zoomed in onto the daily candlesticks of USD/MYR chart spanning from Jul 2015 to Aug 2016.
As we can see, the downward trendline for the USD/MYR is getting steeper, so we can expect an accelerated selldown of US dollar against Ringgit in future. 


So what does all these currency charts suggest?
These signals from the currency charts conveyed a clear message that Ringgit will strengthen moving forward.
So how does all these related to FBMKLCI and Malaysia stock market?
If Ringgit were to strengthen against US dollar, it means the foreign funds will be revisiting our market soon after the 2014 and 2015 capital exodus, and we will see the return of bull market.

 




Disclaimer: This is an expression of personal opinion of the author, the author is not responsible for anything happened to the readers after they read this post.

 

 

Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 7 of 7 comments

jonatlau79

Budget 2017+Sudden PRU-14+BN Great Victory . T/P: 1,900

2016-08-13 08:08

Icon8888

Matket does look bullish

2016-08-13 08:41

murali

CpTeh will be very sad.......

2016-08-13 08:48

jonatlau79

http://ritholtz.com/2016/08/faber-50-crash-coming-however/
(The Day Will Come, But No One Can Know When)

2016-08-13 09:06

phg1

So cpt should be very happy. After the euphoria, finally there shall be a crash.

2016-08-13 10:48

ScrewDriver

For the time being, it is premature to conclude that the market will crash in intermediate-term (1 year), shorting the market now is a guaranteed path to losses unless you are doing short term trades; because you will never know how high a bull market can rally.

Foreign funds have been rushing out of Malaysia from 2014 to 1H 2016, so it is the time for them to reseek risk for higher return, by revisiting emerging markets. This series of events will coincide with the strengthening of Ringgit (and crude oil price).

Will update more as FBMKLCI breaks extra long-term trendlines or extra long-term moving average.

2016-08-13 11:14

ScrewDriver

If FBMKLCI break 1747, it will spur the greatest bull run not seen since 2008, because 1747 is the 200weekly sma, breaking this level is equivalent to declare bull run on extra long-term (>1 year).

I don't see a problem for FBMKLCI to break this level.

2016-08-15 17:10

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