Technical spots

FBMKLCI engine is still warming up, more bullish rally to come.

ScrewDriver
Publish date: Sat, 13 Jan 2018, 10:09 PM


 

This is the weekly chart of FBMKLCI, it has violated the three-year-long downtrend line recently, meaning that FBMKLCI intend to embark an uptrend after a dreaded three years of choppy movement.
[reference: FBMKLCI one piece of puzzle left before confirming 2018 bull market
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Tech_Watch/142781.jsp]


Some people may suggest to exercise extreme cautious currently (or shallowly, now is time to sell on strength) based on weekly chart, because FBMKLCI was rallying on lower volume, and hence the rally may not be sustainable.
Although on the face value such opinion may sounds sensible, but to me it sounds too cliche, because price volume divergence may not be applicable for our current situation.
Usually when analyst talk about price volume divergence, it is more relevant if the uptrend has been going on for extending period of time and the rally is overstretched with little correction.
However for FBMKLCI, remember that the rally just began as a high volume spring from Dec 2017 bottom, which is a testament of absoprtion of strong selling pressure, and we are just at the begining of uptrend.
In fact, the current rally with slighty lower volume actually has a strong hidden bullish message: the selling pressure is relatively weak, and a slight increase of demand (hence low trading volume) is enough to skyrocket the price!

Remember that the rally we witness currently was already foretold by two marco factors:
1. The wall street had been bullish on our market, when the price of EWM (ETF tracking FBMKLCI listed in US) diverge from FBMKLCI movement from Oct 2017 until Dec 2017.
2. Ringgit has been strengthening non stop since Dec 2016.

[Reference: Triple reasons why FBMKLCI will be very very bullish.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Tech_Watch/140898.jsp]

These two macro factors have not change since FBMKLCI started the rally, and I believe we can see more money flowing into Malaysia this year, and all time high this year is an almost certainty.

If currently FBMKLCI is at 2100++ and the volume is decreasing then price volume divergence may sounds like a sensible warning tone, but dude as of right now this is just begining of uptrend and hence price volume divergence may not be relevant.

On the side note, the weekly RSI of FBMKLCI is not even overbought yet, so why are you despairing? Why you enveloped yourself with bearish thought? Furthermore, even if the weekly RSI is overbought, that still doesn't guarrantee a correction to be coming, market can remain overbought for extended period of time especially during strong uptrend, so please don't fall for such fallacy.

 

The second chart shown here is the 15min chart of FBMKLCI.
Previously, in Dec 2017, FBMKLCI tested 15 min 200sma as support and establish the 15min 200ma line as the launchpad for bullish rally.
[reference: FBMKLCI staging comeback boat, profit taking overdone.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Tech_Watch/141947.jsp]

This time FBMKLC has again successfully retested 200sma to confirm its intention to resume the rally.
Hence going forward, as long as the price level can hold above the 200ma 15min, the bullish stance shall remain unchanged, and more upside shall be expected.

The market rally we are witnessing currently is just the entree/appetizer/engine warm up only, so don't be too pessimistic to think that the rally is just an pre election show or CNY rally, OKAY?
Judging from the strong movement we sees in the begining of 2018, regardless of the outcome of upcoming GE, 2018 as a whole will be farily bullish.
The main course is not even served yet, why are you despairing now?

Wishing everyone a blissful and blessed 2018.
 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 2 of 2 comments

Patron

it's global bull market. market everywhere is making new high. u must be nut to short at this moment. even if you r right u won't make much money

2018-01-13 22:50

meistsk3134

down jone keep high

2018-01-13 22:54

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