Technical spots

Reverse Technical Analysis: FBMKLCI throwing smoke bomb to induce maximum fear.

ScrewDriver
Publish date: Thu, 18 Jan 2018, 10:29 PM

Ever heard of the saying which states that stock market climbs against a 'wall of worry'?
This is what FBMKLCI is basically doing right now, to confuse everyone.

To recap, we are currently in the fourth wave of Elliott Wave uptrend which started in Dec last year.
Because the second wave (lasted from 15th of Dec until 20th of Dec) was fairly short (only few days in duration), so wave 4 duration became slightly longer than everyone has expected.

If you are observing market on a daily basis you will notice that market was very bearish sentiment-wise recently (hopefully you did, if you don't maybe you are just not observant enough).
We have small numbers of gainer compared to large number of loser counters everyday, and majority of previous high volume stocks got hammered continuously for few days. I believe this kind of environment is conducive enough to revert everyone's bullish stance back to bearish.
Even I also questioned myself, pondering if the current market environment is too similar to the feeling I got back in Q3 of 2017, the long, draggy slow grinding 'micro bear' market.

The correction from 15th of Dec until 20th of Dec was a very sharp one, it almost erased half of the gain of previous upmove.
Since wave 2 and wave 4 usually alternate, the current correction (wave 4) is relatively shallow, and it has been proceeding with diminishing volume.
Do keep in mind the current correction came about after a sharp rally of about 100points, so if selling pressure was really great and profit taking was intense ie not much buying pressure to support the price, the FBMKLCI would have easily plummeted significantly.
But, instead we are only seeing a mild sideway correction, meaning that market was actually supported by strong hidden buying pressure so far.

Then, why is the market felt so bearish (so many loser vs gainer in scoreboard eveyday)?
This brings me to my own speculation: market maker (or shallowly if you want to call them operator/manipulator/whatever) after seeing market refuse to correct down sharply may have realise they don't have much time to wait, because when next upleg begins, market will be very bullish again and individual stock will be rallying again.
Remember, for market maker to make a living they obviously have to buy low and sell high, and for market maker to collect shares from retailer or floating capital, they got to wait for market correction to induce selling. The best environment to achieve such objective is when market corrects sharply or during a prolonged sideways movement which draws pessimism, I believe the latter approach is manifesting right now.

With so many loser vs gainer on the scoredboard, I believe we are approaching maximum fear now for the sideway correction of FBMKLCI, which is just another way of market throwing a smoke bomb or decoy to erase the bullish sentiment created by the previous upleg (started on 20th of Dec).


After a 'wall of worry' is erected, market will continue to rally when it is least expected.

 

Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 11 of 11 comments

Alex™

always like screw sifu writing. gooding.

2018-01-18 22:35

ScrewDriver

Please dont take my article literally as a recommendation to hold your stock or buy more now if you are stucked at a stock currently, as I'm purely focusing on FBMKLCI all the time, my opinions only apply to FBMKLCI, not individual stocks.

2018-01-18 22:36

Alex™

ok. Thank you =) but your contribution to i3 community is very much commended. Yes, readers must exercise their own due diligence.

2018-01-18 22:39

Patron

correction is inevitable. I am still adding fkli long. it's bull market, you know!

2018-01-18 23:11

andrewong

hengyuan go up 2morow

2018-01-19 00:18

tecpower

Since the beginning of 2016, a clear upward trend has dominated the course of the US semiconductor index PHLX and produced a gain of over 140 percent in the barometer. On Wednesday, the index has broken above its highs from 2017 and has thereby set up a fresh follow-up buy signal.

At the same time, this also brought buyers to the scene in this country and spawned a price leap in numerous German technology titles. As a result, technology stocks tend to become more interesting again in the coming weeks and can be traded on the upper side via corresponding long instruments.

Direct price gains up to the upper trend limit of roughly 1,400 points would be quite feasible in the coming days

2018-01-19 00:20

tecpower

Outlook of semiconductor stocks in 2018

MMSV
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/01/15/mms-ventures-sees-better-results-on-higher-sales/

Globetronics
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/01/08/robust-demand-for-chips/

KESM
According to the recent AGM, the company's outlook in 2018 is extremely good.

2018-01-19 00:25

Save

A very good KLCI trend technical analysis. Please warn us when market is about to collapse. Thanks in advance.

2018-01-19 01:40

hstha

Ringgit to revisit 4.30 as US dollar strengthens, says DBS http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ringgit-revisit-430-us-dollar-strengthens-says-dbs

2018-01-19 07:17

Mark T Bird

pretty sure goes up again, CNY around the corner, and GE coming soon

2018-01-19 09:11

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