3 Aug 2022

​The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down in shock last night. As of the close, the Dow fell 1.23%, the Nasdaq fell 0.16%, and the S&P fell 0.67%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 5.5% to close at 2.748%, a difference of about -32 basis points compared with the yield on the two-year Treasury bond. The fear index VIX closed up 4.77%. Brent crude closed down 0.11%. Spot gold closed down 0.01% at $1,760.82 an ounce. The dollar index remained high, closing at 106.32.

The three major stock indexes collectively opened lower. According to statistics, the number of job vacancies in the United States recorded 10.698 million in June, lower than the expected 11 million and the previous value of 11.254 million. Institutional analysis said that the rapid slowdown in June data should support the Fed to slow down the pace of tightening. At present, large companies have turned to a "continuous recruitment" policy, and it can be said that there are very many job opportunities in some companies.

On the energy front, U.S. President Joe Biden said gasoline prices have fallen 83 cents since mid-June. The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) cut its 2022 oil market surplus forecast by 200,000 bpd to 800,000 bpd. Standard Chartered forecasts oil demand to grow by 1.67 million bpd in 2023, with significant downside risks. The survey showed that OPEC Gulf countries increased oil production to ease oil market tension. OPEC crude production rose to a two-year high last month, rising by 270,000 bpd, as OPEC members in the Persian Gulf provided additional crude supplies to make up for shortages elsewhere. G7 statement: Consider a blanket ban on all services capable of transporting Russian seaborne oil and petroleum products worldwide unless purchased at or below prices negotiated with international partners.

The Fed's Daly said the unemployment rate will not rise significantly and will be based on future data to decide whether to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes or continue at the current pace. Fed's Evans says soft landing possible, but risky; still hope for a 50bps rate hike in September, then a 25bps hike until early Q2 2023; if inflation No improvement, a 50bps rate hike is a reasonable assessment for the September meeting, a 75bps rate hike is also OK, but doubt that a 100bps hike is needed. U.S. stocks fell in late trading.

According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch”: the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points by September is 58.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 41.5%; The probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 45.7%, and the probability of accumulative rate hikes of 125 basis points is 10.2%.

Apple fell 0.93% and will set up a new campus in San Diego, the United States, to deploy software and hardware engineering teams.

Amazon fell 0.91%, Amazon AWS's market share in the global cloud infrastructure market reached 34% in the second quarter, still more than the combined market share of its two major competitors Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud; Amazon launched a same-day delivery service for specific retail stores , including PacSun and Diesel.

Tesla rose 1.11%, and the second phase C of the Shanghai plant (Phase I) has been commissioned; in the second quarter, European sales were halved, and market share fell by more than 50%.

Uber rose 18.9%, Q2 revenue doubled to $80.7, exceeding expectations, and free cash flow turned positive.

Boeing fell 3.42% after the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced new airworthiness directives for all Boeing 777 models.

Sources from: Investing.com; Reuters.com
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Louis Yap

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