16 Aug 2022

​Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened lower and moved higher. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.45%, the Nasdaq rose 0.62%, and the S&P rose 0.4%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell 1.96% to close at 2.793%, a difference of about -40 basis points compared with the yield on the two-year Treasury bond. The fear index VIX closed up 2.15%. Brent crude closed down 4.64%. Spot gold closed down 1.25% at $1,794.56 an ounce. The dollar index remained high, closing at 106.5.

The New York Fed manufacturing index in the United States recorded -31.3 in August, the lowest since May 2020, and is expected to be 5.5 and the previous value of 11.1. The regional index was a big surprise: The Fed wants slower growth, which it hopes will slow inflation, but doesn't want a sharp downturn. The data stands in stark contrast to the Michigan survey, which showed a slight increase. Both surveys are about current economic views, one consumer view and the other business view. The three major stock indexes collectively opened lower.

Affected by soaring energy prices, although it is still summer in Europe, Austrians have recently begun to consider burning wood for heating in winter. It is reported that online searches for "firewood" in Austria have surged, and many hardware stores have also pointed out that firewood has been in short supply recently and will not be available until autumn. The current shortage has pushed up the price of firewood, which is even higher than the price of food and natural gas. High temperatures and depleted rivers increase gas demand in the European region. Water levels are so low on key sections of European rivers that diesel, coal and other commodities are difficult to transport across the continent, and utilities may eventually use more natural gas as an alternative. According to media sources, Russia’s average daily oil production in August fell by 3% month-on-month, and it will reduce the oil export tax to $52 per ton from September 1.

The NAHB housing market index in the United States fell 6 points in August to 49, the largest decline since the collapse of the US housing market in 2007, and the eighth consecutive decline. It was the first time since May 2020 that the index fell below the key breakeven indicator of 50. Rising interest rates, persistent supply chain issues and high home prices continue to exacerbate housing affordability challenges. The three major U.S. stock indexes opened lower and moved higher.

After the market, after hinting that it was one step closer to reaching a nuclear agreement with the United States and resumed Iran's oil exports to the global market, Iran officially responded to the text of the nuclear agreement proposed by the European Union, and the Iran nuclear agreement may be reached. According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch": the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points by September is 61.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 38.5%; The probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 51.6%, and the probability of accumulative rate hikes of 125 basis points is 21.9%.

Apple rose 0.63%, Buffett increased his holdings of Apple 3.88 million shares in Q2; Apple's new iPad production may be affected by power cuts in Sichuan factories; Apple will put more advertising in iPhone.

In Q2, Renaissance increased its holdings of Nio by more than two times, reduced its holdings of Tesla, newly entered Microsoft, and cleared Amazon and Google.

Tesla rose 3.1%. Musk said that Tesla has produced 3 million electric vehicles in total, and the Shanghai plant exceeded 1 million; as of the end of July, Tesla had a backlog of 500,000 orders, and Shanghai had a backlog of 260,000.

Sources from: Investing.com; Reuters.com

Louis Yap

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