15 Nov 2022

Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated and closed down, diving in late trading. As of the close, the Dow fell 0.63%, the Nasdaq fell 1.12%, and the S&P fell 0.89%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 1.417% to close at 3.865%, a difference of about -54 basis points compared to the yield on the two-year Treasury bond. The panic index VIX rose 5.37%. Brent crude oil closed down 3.56%. Spot gold closed up 0.04% at $1,771.96 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index remained high, closing at 107.07.

According to the OPEC Monthly Report: OPEC lowered the growth forecast of world oil demand for the whole year of 2022 to 2.55 million barrels per day, and lowered the growth forecast of world oil demand for the whole year of 2023 to 2.24 million barrels per day. The report mentioned that OPEC lowered oil demand expectations and began to limit production. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expects to impose an oil price cap by the end of this year, and the EU is largely ready to implement the plan. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): U.S. Permian oil production is expected to hit a record high in December.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow did not accept the preconditions for negotiations with Ukraine, including the withdrawal of troops. The U.S. Treasury Department said it would impose new sanctions on Russia. A major U.S. exporter of liquefied natural gas may extend plant shutdowns through December. The United Nations General Assembly has passed a resolution holding Russia accountable for the compensation Ukraine is demanding.

Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of England to stop raising interest rates when the bank rate hits 4.0% in March 2023. A 150 basis point rate cut is expected in 2024 as the inflation target is met and unemployment rises. European Central Bank Vice President Guindos: High inflation is expected to exceed the target level for a period of time, and the European Central Bank will raise interest rates again. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect U.S. CPI to fall "significantly" to below 3% by the end of 2023, and core PCE, currently at 5.1%, to fall to 2.9%.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard said: The recent CPI shows that the core personal consumption index may also decline. The appropriate approach is to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes as soon as possible; retail profit margins are expected to decline, which will lead to deflation. The mission is to continue Keep inflation expectations at 2%; hard to see what the rate path really looks like at this point. In addition, Fed Governor Waller said yesterday that although it may consider slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes from December, it should not be regarded as a softening of the anti-inflation commitment. Bitcoin options trading platform LedgerX withdrew its liquidation application, according to a statement from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The U.S. Attorney's Office in Manhattan investigated FTX.

Apple fell 0.95%. It is rumored that Apple is advancing recruitment work to develop 3D world and video services for its MR headsets. At the same time, it is secretly developing a search engine for the iPhone to compete head-on with Google.

UBS reduced its holdings of Microsoft and Apple in Q3, and significantly increased its position in S&P 500 put options.

Amazon fell 2.28%, Bank of America Securities removed Amazon from the investment recommendation list "US 1 List", but maintained its buy rating; the global environment deteriorated, and Amazon plans to lay off 10,000 people this week.

Tesla fell 2.56%. Tesla has begun to push the FSD Beta V11 version, which brings a large number of feature updates and optimizations; Musk said that Tesla’s repurchase “depends on the Tesla board of directors.”

Meta rose 1.06%, and will stop developing Portal smart displays and smart watches, and is still restructuring some departments.

Sony fell 0.81%. It is reported that it will build a new semiconductor factory in Thailand in 2024. The products are mainly used to assist car driving.

Visa rose 0.91%, saying on Sunday it would sever its global credit card agreement with collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX.

Moderna rose 4.57%, and its new anti-epidemic vaccine booster shot reached the main research endpoint in Phase 2/3 clinical trials.

TSMC once rose by more than 7% after the market, and Buffett built a position in TSMC with US$4 billion in the third quarter.

Sources from: Investing.com; Reuters.com

Louis Yap

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