21 Nov 2022

Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated and closed up. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.59%, the Nasdaq rose 0.01%, and the S&P rose 0.48%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.644% to close at 3.833%. Compared with the two-year Treasury yield difference of -71 basis points, the U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curves are inverting to a new record. The panic index VIX fell 3.38%. Brent crude oil closed down 2.45%. Spot gold closed down 0.55% at $1,750.87 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index remained high, closing at 106.97.

Bank of America quoted EPFR Global data as saying that the U.S. stock market experienced the largest weekly inflow in 35 weeks, an increase of US$22.9 billion, bond inflows of US$4.2 billion, cash outflows of US$3.7 billion, and gold outflows of US$300 million. European stocks saw their 40th straight week of outflows, the longest stretch of "regional avoidance" on record. The Bank of America bull and bear indicator rose to 0.4, the first rise in nine weeks, but remains "extremely bearish."

The total number of existing home sales in the United States in October recorded an annualized 4.43 million, the lowest since May 2020. Expected 4.38 million households, the previous value of 4.71 million households. U.S. home sales fell for a ninth straight month in October as rising interest rates and soaring inflation kept buyers on the sidelines. Existing-home sales fell 5.9% from September to October, according to the National Association of Realtors. That was the slowest pace since December 2011, aside from a plunge at the start of the pandemic. Existing home sales totaled 4.43 million on a seasonally adjusted basis, down 28.4% from a year earlier, data for October showed. Even with sales slowing, supply continues to remain low. The median existing-home sales price in October was $379,100, up 6.6 percent from a year earlier. However, house price gains are contracting as the seasonal decline in house prices appears to be much worse than usual at this time of year.

Concentrated speeches by European and American central banks: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that interest rates are expected to be raised further to ensure that inflation returns to the medium-term target of 2% in time. European Central Bank Governing Council Nagel said that interest rate hikes cannot be stopped and further decisive actions are necessary; policy interest rates are still in an expansionary range and must enter a restrictive range; quantitative tightening should begin in early 2023. European Central Bank Governing Council Nott said that as policy tightens further, interest rate hikes may slow down; interest rates are expected to reach a neutral level in December; there is still a long way to go before interest rates peak. Fed Collins said that the Fed has more work to do to reduce inflation; the Fed may need to raise interest rates further; after the rate hike cycle is over, the Fed will need to keep interest rates unchanged for some time; recent data have increased my view that interest rates Upper range to be reached; 75 basis point rate hike still on the table.

Turkey expects to start implementing the Russian-proposed gas hub project from early 2023, Turkey's energy ministry said. Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Belousov said that the rate of economic recession in Russia will be around 2.8% to 3% in 2022 and will not exceed 1% in 2023. The G7 group plans to announce the level of the Russian oil price ceiling next Wednesday.

Apple rose 0.38%. Due to the prolonged delivery time, some consumers may not be able to get the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max before Christmas; analysts warned that Apple's iPhone sales performance this quarter may not meet expectations.

Microsoft fell 0.19%. The global game market revenue in 2022 is estimated to be US$184.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%.

Google fell 0.71%. By 2026, the ARM architecture SoC will have more than half of the cloud server market share, and the PC market share will reach 30%.

Amazon fell 0.75%. Amazon sought to lay off employees through a voluntary buyout plan. The CEO said that the layoffs would continue until next year.

Tesla fell 1.63%, falling to a low in nearly two years during the session. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: Tesla recalled 29,348 vehicles due to airbag problems; Tesla directors said Musk has identified the CEO potential successor.

Meta rose 0.54%. Applied Materials rose 0.24%. Revenue EPS in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022 exceeded expectations, and raised its revenue guidance for the next quarter to US$6.3-7.1 billion, exceeding market expectations.

AMD fell 0.45%, and Analog Devices (ADI.O) announced on November 17 local time that they had reached a settlement on the previous semiconductor patent legal dispute.

Anheuser-Busch InBev rose 0.95%. FIFA confirmed that the sale of alcohol is prohibited in Qatar World Cup venues and surrounding areas. The sales of Anheuser-Busch InBev non-alcoholic beer BudZero will not be affected and will continue to be provided in World Cup venues.

IBM rose 1.06%. CEO Arvind Krishna said that IBM has not frozen recruitment like other technology industry peers, and is still continuing to recruit new employees.

Sources from: Investing.com; Reuters.com

Louis Yap

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