29 Nov 2022

Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes continued to fall. Most sectors such as cruise lines, department stores, and gold fell, and popular Chinese concept stocks bucked the trend and strengthened. As of the close, the Dow fell 1.45%, the Nasdaq fell 1.58%, and the S&P fell 1.54%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 0.325% to close at 3.679%, a difference of -77 basis points compared to the yield on the two-year Treasury bond. The panic index VIX rose 8.34%. Brent crude oil settled down 0.78%. Spot gold closed down 0.73% at $1,741.74 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index remained high, closing at 106.67.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the economy will start to weaken over the rest of this year and into 2023, and further interest rate hikes are expected. Ligue 1 Paris Saint-Germain intends to sell up to 15% of its shares, with a target valuation of more than 4 billion euros. The United States has confirmed that negotiations on a new strategic arms reduction treaty with Russia have been delayed. According to the consulting agency Eurasia Group: OPEC+ will seriously consider the new production reduction agreement at the next meeting. Representatives of EU governments ended a meeting on a cap on Russia's seaborne crude prices without a deal.

US November Dallas Fed Business Activity Index -14.4, expected -22, previous value -19.4. Growth in Texas factory activity slowed in November, according to the survey. The production index, a key gauge of manufacturing conditions, fell 5 points to near zero, suggesting output was little changed from October. Other indicators of manufacturing activity pointed to contraction for the month. The new orders index plunged to -20.9, the sixth straight month of negative readings and the lowest level since May 2020. Views on overall business conditions continued to deteriorate in November. In addition, labor market indicators pointed to slower job growth and steady hours worked.

According to Obstfeld, the former chief economist of the IMF: the result of the next Fed meeting may be to raise interest rates by 50 basis points. According to the Federal Reserve Williams: It is expected that by the end of 2023, the unemployment rate in the United States will rise from 3.7% to 4.5%-5%. -3.5%; moderate economic growth expected this year and 2023. The basic expectation is that there will be no recession, but if the US economy faces a greater risk of shock, it may lead to a recession.

Fed's Bullard said that the Fed will need to raise interest rates to the bottom of the 5%-7% range and may have to keep interest rates higher until 2023 or even 2024; the market has underestimated the risk and the Fed may be more aggressive and will continue to raise interest rates By 2023, the goal is to reach deflation in 2023. But don't think "recession" is inevitable. Expected deflation is one of the reasons for an inverted yield curve, so an inverted yield curve is not necessarily signaling a recession.

Apple fell 2.63%, Sony fell 0.87%, Sony will provide image sensors for Apple's next-generation iPhone; according to Musk: Apple has basically stopped advertising on Twitter.

Microsoft fell 2.32%. Sweden sued Microsoft Activision Blizzard for collusion; Microsoft may provide remedies to the EU in the next few weeks, mainly including signing a 10-year game licensing agreement with Sony to avoid the EU's formal opposition to the company's acquisition of Activision Blizzard. .

Amazon rose 0.58%. "Black Friday" online sales hit a record of US$9.12 billion, but offline sales fell short of expectations. Amazon will gradually shut down some of its Indian businesses and focus on core businesses such as online retail.

Tesla rose 0.03%. Tesla is about to deliver the first batch of Semi electric trucks and enter the 8-class truck market; it is rumored that Tesla is developing an improved version of Model 3 to cut costs; Hua’s first layout of chip design and manufacturing; Musk expects Twitter’s monthly active users to exceed 1 billion in the next 12 to 18 months.

Meta fell 2.36%. It is negotiating panel supply with Samsung and LG for AR/VR equipment; it was fined $276 million in Europe for data collection leaks.

Credit Suisse fell 6.13%. Credit Suisse issued 889 million new shares to existing investors, and the transformation plan raised more than US$4 billion.

AstraZeneca rose 0.06%, signing a US$402 million agreement with British company C4X Discovery, which plans to use its NRF2 activator to develop an oral drug for the treatment of inflammation and respiratory diseases.

Shell fell 0.58% on news that Shell will acquire renewable natural gas producer Nature Energy for about $2 billion.

Sources from: Investing.com; Reuters.com

Louis Yap

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