30 Nov 2022

Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes continued to fluctuate. U.S. stocks performed weakly throughout the day. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.01%, the Nasdaq fell 0.59%, and the S&P fell 0.16%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 1.818% to close at 3.752%, a difference of -73 basis points compared to the yield on the two-year Treasury bond. The panic index VIX fell 1.44%. Brent crude oil closed up 1.97%. Spot gold closed up 0.45% at $1,749.66 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index remained high, closing at 106.83.

According to sources, the European Union continues to discuss the issue of Russian oil price caps, but differences remain, with Greece and Cyprus seeking a $70 cap, while Poland and the Baltic states have proposed a cap of $25-30. It is difficult for Europe to get rid of its dependence on Russian energy: Although the supply of Russian natural gas to Europe through pipelines has almost stopped, European LNG imports from Russia this year have increased by 42% year-on-year. International Energy Agency executive director Birol predicts that by the end of 23Q1, Russian oil may lose 2 million barrels per day. The White House seeks to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at a fixed price of $70/barrel. For the first time this week, Ukraine’s air defense siren sounded across the country. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered a new stage as winter approaches, and the Russian army is facing greater challenges.

The industrial climate index in the euro zone recorded -2 ​​in November, the lowest since January 2021. According to JPMorgan Chase's forecast, the UK's GDP in fiscal year 2023 will fall by 0.6%, while GDP in fiscal year 2022 will rise by 4.3%, and the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates to 4.25% in the first quarter of 2023. Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, said that there is no reason to think that the Bank of England will not achieve the goal of reducing its holdings of 80 billion pounds of government bonds within a year, and the British government bond market has not returned to normal. The Bank of England sold 346.4 million pounds of gilts in the long-dated and index-linked gilt sales window.

In September, the S&P/CS 20 major city house price index in the United States recorded an annual rate of 10.43%, the smallest increase since December 2020. It is expected to be 10.8% and the previous value is 13.08%. This is a lagging indicator. Still, the U.S. housing market is already showing signs of bottoming out as interest rates have leveled off. What happens next will depend on changes in interest rates, which in turn will depend on inflation. Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said the House had voted to pass a bill to avoid rail strikes. Democratic U.S. Senator Sanders said he would block the railroad bill until a vote on paid sick leave provisions.

Apple fell 2.11%. The total shipments of iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max in 22Q4 were 15-20 million units less than expected.

Microsoft fell 0.59%, and will provide remedial measures to the European Union to avoid the failure of the $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

Amazon rose 1.63%, and will launch high-performance computing chips to challenge Intel and Nvidia;

BlackBerry rose 0.83%. Amazon Cloud Technology and BlackBerry expanded their cooperation to migrate BlackBerry QNX basic software to the cloud.

Tesla fell 1.14%. South Korean President Yin Xiyue said that he would provide "tailor-made" incentives to introduce Tesla's super factory to South Korea; a Tesla China spokesman said that the joint venture with Annas Semiconductor "does not exist investment relationship". Qichacha data also shows that the investor “Tesla” of Annas Semiconductor is the British “Tesla Motors Limited”.

Meta rose 0.63%, and Sony and Meta's new products assisted. It is estimated that global VR device shipments will rebound to 10.35 million units in 2023.

ConocoPhillips rose 0.33%, the company will sell natural gas to the German market.

HSBC Holdings rose 1.43%. Royal Bank of Canada will acquire the Canadian business of HSBC Holdings. The basic cash consideration is 13.5 billion Canadian dollars (about 10.1 billion U.S. dollars) and the pre-tax profit is 5.7 billion U.S. dollars.

Toyota Motor fell 0.76%. In October, global car sales were 918,756, a year-on-year increase of 25%; global car production was 771,382.

Sources from: Investing.com; Reuters.com

Louis Yap

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