We reaffirm our BUY recommendation on YTL Hospitality REIT (YTLREIT) with an unchanged fair value of RM1.32/unit, based on a DDM valuation. (cost of equity: 7.7%, terminal growth rate:1.5%, and risk free rate: 4.2%)
At a glance, YTLREIT reported a net loss of RM22.7mil (>-100.0% YoY and >-100.0% QoQ) for 3Q17. However, the net losses were masked by noncash items such as depreciation and unrealised foreign translation on the Australian dollardenominated term loan.
After adjusting the non-cash items, YTLREIT reported a distributable income of RM33.6mil (+29.8% YoY and +13.8% QoQ) for 3Q17 and DPU of 1.83 sen, vs. 2.26sen in 2Q16 driven by interest savings. This brings the DPU in 9MFY17 to 6.15 sen vs 5.75 sen in 1H16.
Revenue was registered at RM118.3mil for 3Q17, bringing the 9MFY17 total to RM338.5mil (+4.1% YoY). Revenue came within our expectations – making up 79.1% of our full-year revenue estimates of RM428.0mil and 78.3% of consensus. Its solid revenue growth was attributed to a step-up in lease rental income from The Residences at Ritz-Carlton and other Malaysian properties (except for JW Marriott Hotel KL) and the appreciation of AUD.
Net property income was within our expectations, making up 74.4% of our full-year estimates of RM217.7mil and 78.6% of consensus.
Net property income was 6.8% higher YoY in 9MFY17 due to cost savings on the Australian properties and appreciation of Australian dollar and a step-up in lease rental income from the The Residences at The Ritz-Carlton, KL and other Malaysian assets except for JW Marriott KL. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that for every AUD/RM0.10 of the AUD strengthening, it increases YTLREIT’s FY17F DPU by 1.23%. As a result, 3Q17 registered a blended NPI margin of 48.5% (2Q17: 47.9%). The NPI margin of Australian operation as at 3Q17 has remained stable at 33.8% (2Q17:34.5%)
YTLREIT’s debt-to-asset ratio as at 3Q17 is at ~35.4% (2Q17: 40.8%) after it pared down its borrowings. This will provide YTLREIT the flexibility to fund larger acquisition opportunities through borrowings.
We make no changes to our DPU estimates. YTLREIT is expected to continue growing organically, underpinned by healthy rental reversion.
Maintain BUY on YTLREIT with an unchanged DDMbased target price of RM1.32/share, which implies an FY18F gross yield of 5.9%.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....