-  According to USA’s Climate Prediction Center on 6 March 2014, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (March to May) 2014 with about a 50% chance of El Nino developing during the Summer or Fall (June to August).

-  The report said that if westerly winds continue to emerge in western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Nino is more likely.

-  However, the lower forecasting skill during Spring presents significant probability for ENSO-neutral.

-  According to the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia on 25 February 2014, ENSO remains neutral – with neither La Nina nor El Nino.

-  However, warming of the Pacific Ocean is likely to take place in the coming months, with international climate models showing temperatures at the Pacific Ocean approaching or exceeding El Nino thresholds.

-  The Bureau also said that model outlooks that span Autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year and as such, they should be used with caution.

-  On 21 February 2014, the Malaysia Meteorological Department (MMD) forecasted average rainfall in Selangor and Kuala Lumpur for the period of March to August 2014. Rainfall is estimated to range from a low of 90mm in May to a high of 390mm in April. The average is also expected in Johor throughout March to August.

-  MMD also predicts the average to occur for Sabah except for Kudat, which is expected to receive slightly below the average of May.

-  In Sarawak, the average rainfall is also anticipated in most areas except for Kuching, Samarahan, Sri Aman, Betong, Mukah, Sarikei and Sibu which are forecast to receive less in March and April.

-  Finally, Pakistan is in negotiations with FELDA to open large-scale oil palm estates in the coastal areas of Sindh and Balochistan.

-  Sources quoted by Bernama said more than 3,000ha of land each in Sindh and Balochistan would be brought under oil palm cultivation in the near future. Pakistan would import seedlings through Pakistan Oilseed Development Board. 

Source: AmeSecurities