AmResearch

Rubber Gloves - First confirmed Ebola case in the US NEUTRAL

kiasutrader
Publish date: Wed, 01 Oct 2014, 09:39 AM

- Yesterday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced what it believes to be the first Ebola case to be diagnosed outside Africa.

- The patient did not exhibit any Ebola symptoms when departing Liberia but developed symptoms approximately four to five days after arriving in the US.

- The authorities do not believe that there is any risk of transmission on his flight as he was not infectious at that time.

- We also understand that following the positive laboratory test, the patient has been treated in strict isolation in Dallas, Texas.

- While he is known to have been in contact with a ‘handful’ of people after showing symptoms of the virus, state and federal health officials said that there are presently no other confirmed or suspected cases of Ebola.

- The patient, who was visiting his family in the US, is the fifth person to receive treatment for the virus in the country. Three of the four patients have successfully recovered while the identity and condition of the fourth is unknown.

- According to the WHO’s latest update on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the total number of reported cases as of 31 August 2014 is 3,685. Case fatality rate is 50%. The virus is most widespread in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone.

- In a bid to contain the outbreak, the United Nations (UN) has set up the first ever emergency health mission namely, the UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER). It will work closely with the WHO, the respective governments and authorities as well as the private sectors to respond to any immediate needs in relation to the Ebola fight.

- The spread and increased awareness of this disease augurs well for the rubber glove manufacturers. While interests from the developed countries (e.g. US and Europe) should result in an uptick in demand for nitrile gloves and hence be most beneficial to Hartalega (HOLD; FV:RM6.45/share) and Kossan Rubber Industries (BUY, FV: RM5.85/share), they are handicapped by their high utilisation rates (>85%).

- As such, we maintain our opinion that Top Glove Corp (HOLD; FV: RM4.80/share) and Supermax Corp (HOLD, FV: RM2.40/share) should reap the bulk of the rewards.

- We are leaving our NEUTRAL call on the sector and earnings forecasts unchanged for now as recent discussions with the various rubber glove manufacturers’ managements revealed that there has yet to be any real surge in demand.

Source: AmeSecurities

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