bluefun的投资分享心得

Dividend Yield or Capital Gain - bluefun

bluefun
Publish date: Sun, 23 Jul 2017, 06:06 PM

 

朋友们周日下午好,在这美好的周末不知大家有何 planning? 在家休息,运动休闲,电影唱 K,

小酌咖啡轻松阅读,出外与亲朋戚友们欢聚还是在为明天即将到来的 monday blue 而”因为我

蓝,所以我蓝“ 哈哈哈

 

今早, bluefun 一如往常般登山取新鲜的空气去,窥探绿色植物的美,与大自然接触。 流了一身

汗,人也倍感凉爽, 哈哈哈。

 

过后,bluefun 小弟与一位年轻有为的 study buddy 探讨了投资高股息的公司是不是稳稳赚??

其实这就要看投资者的投资策略与套路 (investment strategy/investment behaviour)。

 

如果投资者想要每年都有稳定又高的股息回酬 (dividend appreciation, DY > 5%),那么投资高

股息流派的公司就像 defensive stock,稳扎稳打,不怕没有现金流回流投资者的口袋 as pocket

money,就算红海来临盈利退步,股息还是袋袋平安,只是可能会面对股息减少的风险。

 

倘若投资者的策略是稳定成长的公司,那就是属于比较倾向于 capital gain 的流派(differences

between share price),属于 aggressive stock那一类。 在正常的情况下,盈利 (profit) 会与股价

(share price)有 positive 的化学作用 (interaction) 。如果 profit up, 但 share price 却一直 ding

ding dong dong, 那么一定是 something wrong or 上天在考验你的 patience XD。

 

而 bluefun 小弟认为在两者之间寻找一个平衡点是最理想的投资策略。稳定的股息政策,稳定成

长的盈利。

 

就拿嘉登 Gadang as a simple example:

 

FY2017Q3:
Share price = RM1.25 (31/05/2017)
* share split 1 to 2, bonus issue & warrant 1 for 4 (23/11/2016)
Adjusted EPS(rolling 4Q) = 15.40cents
Forecast Dividend = 3cents
Forecast DY = 2.40%
Dividend payout ratio: 19% of AEPS
Cash equivalent = 250m

 

FY2016:
Share price = RM1.66 (31/05/2016)
Basic EPS = 40.94cents
Dividend = 7cents
DY = 4.22%
Dividend payout ratio: 17% of BEPS
Cash equivalent = 293m

 

 

FY2015:
Share price = RM1.17 (29/05/2015)
Basic EPS = 27.89cents
Dividend = 5cents
DY = 4.27%
Dividend payout ratio = 18% of BEPS
Cash equivalent = 232m

 

 

FY2014 :
Share price = RM1.33 (30/05/2014)
Basic EPS = 21.98cents
Dividend = 4cents
DY = 3.01%
Dividend payout ratio = 18% of BEPS
Cash equivalent = 145m

 

 


就如以上的 info,Gadang 的 DY 其实不高,若比起 reit 则是非常的低。 但是一般上公司都 declare about 20% of basic EPS as dividend as an appreciation to shareholder。

从 2014 to 2016,我们可以发觉 Gadang 的股息,盈利与股价属于上升的趋势。多谢于稳定成长中的 revenue & profit。

 

 

2014 - Dividend 4cents, EAT - 43m


2015 - Dividend 5cents,EAT - 60m


2016 - Dividend 7cents, EAT - 95m

 

ROI(return of investment) = total Capital gain/(loss) + total Dividend

 

X = Y + Z

 

If %Y > %Z, > %X

 

如果持有一家公司股份的价格比起现在公司的股价低很多,而总纸上盈利的幅度大于总股息的幅度,那样就算 DY低就不是什么大大的阻碍。

 

要知道 share price up, DY drop; share price drop,DY up。

 

若是一家公司因为盈利一直呈现下滑的征兆,而 share price down trending,所谓的 DY 当然扶摇而上。 然而,减少中的盈利必定会影响公司未来的派息方向。

 

所以所以, consistent growth in revenue & profit 很重要,因为往往股价的上升与下跌就是由未来的盈利清晰度所决定。 换句话说,如果投资者看好一家公司未来的盈利,认为会比去年度的业绩改善或者增加,那么投资者会不惜舍得高价拥抱,因为洞悉公司未来的价值,而造就了股价上升 capital gain 的倾向。

 

当然,买进有发放稳定股息公司的股份比较踏实。 至少股息是实实在在的真银白金, dividend as cash in flow into pocket, reduce holding cost,profit sharing with shareholder。

 

Dividend 就像是打工一族们得到的 appreciation token,而 capital gain 就好像 increasing in annual bonus or new job salary increment

 

Lesson 4 Dividend 也是 bluefun Fundamental Analysis Course 的课程之一。 若有兴趣学习钓鱼之术的朋友们,就是一起专研研究,一起探讨,一起玩,非常欢迎 pm fb page 以询问更多的详情。

 

 

bluefun's Fundamental Analysis Course:

1. Introduction & Interpretation of Financial Statement & Annual Report


2. Financial Ratio Analysis


3. Magic Formula(ROIC, EBIT multiple,EY, CY)


4. Dividend


5. Free Cash Flow Analysis


6. Identify Real Growth Stock


7. Stock Selection : bluefun Score


8. Corporate Exercise(Share split, bonus issue, warrant, right issue)

 

 

 

 

最后,朋友们,让我们一起加油,一步一脚印,踏实的投资,一起锻炼良好的心态,培养对的持股态度,迈向更加美好的未来投资之路。

 

 

投资致富,我们是认真的 XD

 

股价市场先生说了算,价值投资虽很慢但心不乱。

 

 

 

 

“It is an extra dividend when you like the girl you’ve fallen in love with.” – Clark Gable

 

 

bluefun
23.07.2017

fb page: https://www.facebook.com/bluefun668/

 

P/S : This article is just for education purpose,this is not buy call, sell call,miss call or phone call. Any trade, please on your own risk.

 

Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 6 of 6 comments

Patron

广告贴

2017-07-23 19:38

gohkimhock

Magni, HaiO, Superlon all have good dividend yield and capital gain.

2017-07-23 22:43

stockraider

All these stock mentioned Dividend can be sustained or not ??

2017-07-23 23:06

gohkimhock

@stockraider If a company has a dividend policy, it will sustain. The dividend will be based on net profit.

2017-07-24 00:04

stockraider

Dividend policy cannot pakai loh...!!
If they say 50% of profit div....but company can make less mah...!!

or Last yr div policy 50%...next yr can say 20% div policy loh...!!

2017-07-24 00:06

gohkimhock

A stable company mostly don't have profit fluctuating so heavily. As for dividend policy, dividend policy, the directors will not play play with the %.

2017-07-24 00:36

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