Bursa Malaysia Stock Watch
HLIB Research 20 September 2011 (TM; Traders Brief)
kltrader
Publish date: Tue, 20 Sep 2011, 10:51 AM
kltrader
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TM (BUY)
Driven by fibre optics at the speed of light
'' In our recent meeting with the management, the main takeaway was UniFi's take up rate continue to exceed expectations.
'' As of 19 September 2011, there are about 156k installed customers, translating into 15.6% take up rate (~1m premises passed), compared to 12% take up rate reported in 1H11 (109k installed customers on the back of 904k premises passed).
'' The blended ARPU for UniFi is RM186.
'' Streamyx continue to grow marginally, achieving 1.722m customers in July 2011 compared to 1.721m customers in 1H11. Streamyx's growth in non-UniFi areas is very encouraging at more than 20% YoY.
'' As at July 2011, fixed line customer base contracted to 4.2m compared to 4.288m reported in 1H11.
'' UniFi take up rate is tweaked for FY11, FY12 and FY13 to 15%, 20% and 25% respectively.
'' Updated with latest guidance. Our FY11, FY12 and FY13 EPS are revised by '8.5%, 11.2% and 16.7% respectively.
'' Following the revised forecasts, our TP is raised from RM4.20 to RM4.54 (based on DDM, WACC of 6.4%, TG 0.1%). Upgrade from Hold to Buy in view of more than 10% upside from our TP and dividend yield. The stock is likely to attract investors due to its defensive nature amidst strong swings in global equity market.
FBM KLCI - Crucial psychological support at 1400
'' Unless KLCI can violate the 10-d (1449) and 20-d (1462) SMAs resistance decisively, it is bracing to re-test the 1400 crucial psychological support. If this level is broken, KLCI could then consolidate lower towards 61.8% FR or 1367 pts in the medium term.
'' Meanwhile, monthly MACD & RSI indicators remain bearish.
USDMYR - To retest RM3.24 in the medium term
'' The strong USD Index and persistent foreign selling had weakened the Ringgit by 6% from RM2.937/US$ on 27 July to close at RM3.114 yesterday.
'' Based on the bullish weekly chart, Ringgit could depreciate further towards RM3.24-3.34/US$ in the medium to long term. However, as daily chart is indicating possible profit taking consolidations amid spiking MACD and RSI is approaching 80, Ringgit is likely to find some near term support at RM3.00-3.03.
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