Omicron Variant

Ben Tan

Tobby, thank you for your comments.

Vaccination rate in South Africa is higher than would be anticipated.

As of 27 November:
- Fully vaccinated adults = 35.58%
- Adults with at least 1 dose = 41.39%

That isn't as low as a reproductive number (Rt) of close to 2 would suggest.

2021-11-28 14:13

Arrogant83

Post removed.Why?

2021-11-28 14:13

Ben Tan

Arrogant83, let's keep the discussion civil please.

2021-11-28 14:55

Arrogant83

Post removed.Why?

2021-11-28 15:03

Ben Tan

Cases now reported in:

AFRICA:
South Africa
Botswana
Malawi (suspected)
Mozambique (suspected)

ASIA and OCEANIA:
Hong Kong
Australia
Israel

EUROPE:
Belgium
Italy
United Kingdom
Czech Republic
The Netherlands (suspected)
Germany (suspected)
Denmark (suspected)
Austria (suspected)

2021-11-28 18:11

gohkimhock

ALL ARE MILD CASES.

The South African doctor who first sounded the alarm on the Omicron variant of the coronavirus said that its symptoms are “unusual but mild” in healthy patients — but she’s worried the strain could cause complications in the elderly and unvaccinated.

Dr. Angelique Coetzee, a practicing doctor for 30 years who chairs the South African Medical Association (SAMA), said she believed she had found a new strain of the virus after COVID-19 patients at her private practice in Pretoria exhibited strange symptoms.

“Their symptoms were so different and so mild from those I had treated before,” Coetzee told The Telegraph.

She called South Africa’s vaccine advisory committee on Nov. 18 after a family of four all tested positive for the virus with symptoms that included extreme fatigue.

So far, she’s had two dozen patients who tested positive and showed symptoms of the new variant, mostly young men. About half of the patients were unvaccinated, she said. None of those infected lost their sense of smell or taste.

“It presents mild disease with symptoms being sore muscles and tiredness for a day or two not feeling well,” Coetzee told the paper. “So far, we have detected that those infected do not suffer the loss of taste or smell. They might have a slight cough. There are no prominent symptoms. Of those infected some are currently being treated at home.”

She described one “very interesting case” involving a 6-year-old girl.

She had “a temperature and a very high pulse rate, and I wondered if I should admit her. But when I followed up two days later, she was so much better,” she said.

Coetzee emphasized that all of her patients had been healthy, and expressed worry that elderly or unvaccinated patients could be hit by the omicron much harder –especially those with comorbidities such as diabetes or heart disease.

“What we have to worry about now is that when older, unvaccinated people are infected with the new variant, and if they are not vaccinated, we are going to see many people with a severe [form of the] disease,” she said.

There have been no confirmed cases of the new variant in the United States yet, but officials believe it may already be here. Two cases have been confirmed in the United Kingdom, which joined the US and European Union in issuing travel restrictions.

On Friday, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency and put a temporary halt on all elective surgeries in anticipation of hospitalizations.

2021-11-28 18:19

Ben Tan

gohkimhock, thank you for your comment.

The scientific community generally doesn't expect the infectivity and lethality of the Omicron variant to be much different from Delta, or other earlier variants. However, if it proves to be as transmissible as it appears to be, and if it manages to break through already developed immunity against earlier variants of SARS-COV-2, that is where the challenge will come. A few things of import:

- Reproductive number in the province where the variant is prevalent is close to 2, indicating quadrupling of cases every 6 days.

- A specific combination of mutations, not seen before in the wild, has been demonstrated experimentally to have the highest binding affinity, i.e. this particular combination of mutations allows the virus to bind to the human cell the best.

- The large number of mutations to the spike protein means monoclonal antibody therapies - one of the main ways we've been fighting the pandemic so far - are likely to be ineffective.

2021-11-28 18:24

gohkimhock

It is a concern only if it increases the rate of serious illness, hospitalizations or death. Other than that, just laugh it off.. Just treat it as a normal flu.

2021-11-28 18:29

OrlandoOilSemiconIoT

Best case scenario.. this new variant is mild and provides natural immunity to further Covid-19 re infection

Worst case scenario... another 2 years of past years and overstretched governments gone bankrupt and civil societies as we know them collapsed

2021-11-28 18:43

OrlandoOilSemiconIoT

Fragile

2021-11-28 18:45

chinaman

purposely press panic button, so that all fleece emerging market risky bonds, and buy lower yield US bonds, or USD-considered save haven asset. USD2trillion required to finance Biden infrastructure plan. so, commodity and EM currency, bitcoin hit hard. so, new variant bit over dramatized. bear in mind Hollywood is US. President must be good political actor too ma. wakaka

2021-11-28 18:57

sting79

gohkimhock It is a concern only if it increases the rate of serious illness, hospitalizations or death. Other than that, just laugh it off.. Just treat it as a normal flu.

Yes, everyone throughout the world is totally dumbo and staging/creating millions of hospitalizations and statistics, and acting on the world stage pretending that covid is a serious disease where in fact it is just a mild flu. All doctors, nurses, professionals and everyone in the healthcare industry is all either a paid actor/actress or totally ignorant of the covid science/knowledge.

We are the smartest when most of us are not even in the healthcare industry, kudos bro!

2021-11-28 19:20

Ben Tan

The original article has been updated with more recent data from South Africa.

2021-11-29 10:01

GroundZeroIV

people in the healthcare industry are the smartest? I can be in healthcare industry if i want. But the wages arent attractive enough to me. You are overestimating the knowledge of nurses, pharmacists and even some medical doctors that "read dead books". In fact, most medical doctors dont even consider covid a serious illness. It's its contagiousness that create the problem, when a large number of people are infected. Even a 0.1% of death rate becomes a large number. Do you really think flu doesnt kill or cause pneumonia. Please upgrade your science knownledge

2021-11-29 11:03

Ben Tan

Post removed.Why?

2021-11-29 21:12

Ben Tan

The original article has been updated with more recent data from South Africa and the United Kingdom.

2021-12-01 15:39

sting79

@ GroundZeroIV: Sorry if I'm dumber in science knowledge than most people here. But just want to let you know that I used to be a hardheaded supporter of anti-covid and anti-vaccine many months back and even signed and supported many of the anti-vaccine movements throughout the world (online petitions etc).

Even I agree with your statement that covid is over exaggerated, and is very much against wearing mask which I found it deteriorating to health due to less oxygen intake and more CO2 intake.

But since then many news of anti-vaccine has gone overboard (please find more in gab.com if you know what I mean). News of graphene as nano particles, existence of hydra-like organism, and VAERS death reports (search for a local news about one key point about VAERS) are such overboard articles.

I don't claim to know any covid or medical science more than anyone, but I at least has been much involved and read many anti-covid/anti-vaccine articles to come to where I am today (neutral side).

2021-12-04 19:55

emsvsi

WHENEVER IN DOUBT ALWAYS, HISTORY WILL SHOW US THE WAY

A LONG TIME AGO, I STATED:-

The Black Death occurred between 1347-1351 and killed approximately 75-200 million people

The Spanish Flu occurred between 1918-1920 and killed approximately 17-50 million people

- The pandemics ended quicker and with lower deaths

- Both ended naturally without vaccines


AND JPMORGAN CONCURS:

'While it is likely that Omicron is more transmissible, early reports suggest it may also be less deadly, which would fit into the pattern of virus evolution observed historically, strategists Marko Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan wrote in a note on Wednesday (Dec 1). This might ultimately be a positive for risk markets because it could signal that the end of the pandemic is in sight, they said.

"Omicron could be a catalyst for steepening (not flattening) the yield curve, rotation from growth to value, sell-off in Covid-19 and lockdown beneficiaries and rally in reopening themes," the strategists said. "We view the recent sell-off in these segments as an opportunity to buy the dip in cyclicals, commodities and reopening themes, and to position for higher bond yields and steepening.

It would fit with historical patterns for a less severe and more transmissible virus to quickly crowd out more severe variants, which could turn Omicron into a catalyst to transform a deadly pandemic into something more akin to seasonal flu, the JPMorgan strategists wrote."

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/jpmorgan-says-buy-the-dip-as-omicron-may-signal-pandemic-ending

REMEMBER, HISTORY ALWAYS REPEATS ITSELF


SINCERELY,
EMSVSI

2021-12-04 22:33

arv18

Sorry Ben, maybe better luck next year?

Been a brutal one for glove supporters. I will reiterate what I said earlier this year:

Stay out of gloves for a couple of years (until things settle down), then look to reinvest.

Cheers!

2021-12-09 21:57

arv18

Best to watch Dr John Campbell on Youtube. He is a medical professional and can parse the complex data in a more simple to understand form. Omicron is not very dangerous at all. In fact, if it dominates over Delta, then we could see COVID morphe into just another common cold.

Take care of yourselves. Wash you hand, Maintain distance. Wear a mask.

Cheers!

2021-12-10 16:58